Duration of the Epidemic

@eladar said
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/3-charts-that-changed-coronavirus-policy-in-the-uk-and-us/


Notice the first do nothing graph. When do the death rates drop to zero? Why would they drop to zero by August if people do nothing?

Again, your own source doesn't support your assertions:

"In this worst-case scenario, there are no interventions or changes in people's behaviour. The Imperial College scientists predict the number of deaths would peak in each country three months after the first coronavirus infections were discovered."

That is because, as wolfgang pointed out and the study confirms:

"Based on each person infecting another 2.4 people (the R0 or reproduction number), they predict approximately 81% of the populations of both countries would be infected, resulting in 510,000 deaths in Great Britain and 2.2 million in the US."

@eladar said
So far 60k dead is still within reason.

Which would be more than a typical flu season.
But that is irrelevant because there will be 150,000+ deaths.

@eladar said
The experts say that summer will kill the virus threat.

No they don't.
Stop pushing this rubbish.

@eladar said
So far I am right on every point.

LOL

@no1marauder said
Again, your own source doesn't support your assertions:

"In this worst-case scenario, there are no interventions or changes in people's behaviour. The Imperial College scientists predict the number of deaths would peak in each country three months after the first coronavirus infections were discovered."

That is because, as wolfgang pointed out and the study c ...[text shortened]... ountries would be infected, resulting in 510,000 deaths in Great Britain and 2.2 million in the US."

Then why the multiple mounds in the graphs?

See 2nd graph

@wolfgang59 said
LOL

Name one that has been proven false.

@eladar said
Then why the multiple mounds in the graphs?

See 2nd graph

Maybe you should read the text accompanying the graph:

"The scientists said: "Our projections show that to be able to reduce R to close to 1 or below, a combination of case isolation, social distancing of the entire population and either household quarantine or school and university closure are required."

Around three weeks after the combined interventions are introduced, the scientists predict there would be a reduction in the peak need for intensive care beds - and this would continue to decline while the policies stay in place.

However, once the interventions are relaxed (around September in the above chart), the infections would begin to rise again, leading to a predicted peak epidemic later in the year."

Sorry, but there is zero talk about warm weather causing the virus to disappear; the only reason there is a flare up later in the year is because suppression measures are relaxed.

@no1marauder said
Maybe you should read the text accompanying the graph:

"The scientists said: "Our projections show that to be able to reduce R to close to 1 or below, a combination of case isolation, social distancing of the entire population and either household quarantine or school and university closure are required."

[b]Around three weeks after the combined interventions are in ...[text shortened]... ; the only reason there is a flare up later in the year is because suppression measures are relaxed.

Oh pretended laxed intervention. Got it. So heat causes laxed interventions.

@eladar said
Oh pretended laxed intervention. Got it. So heat causes laxed interventions.

Some useful advice for you:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_holes

@earl-of-trumps said
@Kevcvs57,

Sorry for the missive, I misunderstood you. Yes, the "rate" is not the death level.

7 x's higher death rate. Very strange.

I’m also thinking Spain and Italy probably have generally higher air temperature. As No1 says it’s a combination of things I just wonder if higher air temperatures are an extra issue for a body fighting the virus but I’m not sure at all whether or how it has a bearing on infection rates.