13 Apr 22
@no1marauder saidWhich one do the Russians want?
The take from Nate Silver's 538 is that Macron has about a 1 in 4 chance of losing. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/emmanuel-macron-could-lose-frances-presidential-election/
That's about the chances 538 had of Hillary losing in 2016.
14 Apr 22
@shavixmir saidThat being said… my predictions for 2022 so far have been 100% wrong…
Na. Everyone who is going to vote for Le Pen already did so.
Everyone else will band around Macron.
Le Pen is an aquired taste.
Nostradamus I am not!
14 Apr 22
@wajoma saidWell, firstly, he was talking to the Euros, not the Euro wannabee wallaby shaggers from down South…
What are you calling 'far right' these days, how does it differ from simply 'right'?
Secondly, and more to your point, right-wing is conservative / capitalist.
Far right is when the morality turns to hating various religions and sexual orientationa, fascism and sucking up dictators.
Funnily enough, everyone on the planet knows this distinction, except right-wing republicants and obviously you. Who are obviously a far right moron from the land of fist-fukking non-flight birds.
@no1marauder saidHow far right?
Will France go far right? https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/french-election-emmanuel-macron-to-face-marine-le-pen-in-french-presidential-election-runoff/ar-AAW4ewv?li=BB141NW3
Run-off between Macron and Le Pen is in less than two weeks and polls say it will be tight.
What say the Euros here?
Is she a neo Nazi?
I only ask because people who don't want to call Ukrainian neo nazis what they are often call them far right nationalists. Isn't that what they call Le Pen?
@metal-brain saidMarie Le Pen was very much under the tutelage of her father, who was an unabashed holocaust denier. She came to realize that she would have to distance herself from that reputation to broaden her voter appeal, but the doubt remains that she never really repudiated that belief, but merely made a politically expedient feint.
How far right?
Is she a neo Nazi?
I only ask because people who don't want to call Ukrainian neo nazis what they are often call them far right nationalists. Isn't that what they call Le Pen?
14 Apr 22
@metal-brain saidIf you want a definition of a neo nazi google Putin.
How far right?
Is she a neo Nazi?
I only ask because people who don't want to call Ukrainian neo nazis what they are often call them far right nationalists. Isn't that what they call Le Pen?
14 Apr 22
@metal-brain saidSo do you call Russian Neo Nazis what they are or do you call them comrade.
How far right?
Is she a neo Nazi?
I only ask because people who don't want to call Ukrainian neo nazis what they are often call them far right nationalists. Isn't that what they call Le Pen?
14 Apr 22
@no1marauder saidTrump was up near 35% until the last few days when pollster herding dropped him under 30.
The take from Nate Silver's 538 is that Macron has about a 1 in 4 chance of losing. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/emmanuel-macron-could-lose-frances-presidential-election/
That's about the chances 538 had of Hillary losing in 2016.
In this same matchup in 2017, Macron won 2:1. Granted, things are different but are they THAT different? I guess I'm conditioned by the sticky nature of American political loyalty in the past couple of decades, but that seems like an awfully big swing for a situation that doesn't seem to have changed all that much.
It wouldn't be the first time I'm wrong, but I don't see it. I still gravitate to the fundamentals until they're proven wrong.
14 Apr 22
@sh76 saidIn May 2017 right after his election, his approval rating was 66% which closely mirrored his vote percentage.
Trump was up near 35% until the last few days when pollster herding dropped him under 30.
In this same matchup in 2017, Macron won 2:1. Granted, things are different but are they THAT different? I guess I'm conditioned by the sticky nature of American political loyalty in the past couple of decades, but that seems like an awfully big swing for a situation that doesn't seem to ...[text shortened]... ime I'm wrong, but I don't see it. I still gravitate to the fundamentals until they're proven wrong.
His approval rating now is 44% with 54% disapproval meaning if that same trend continues he'll lose.
A lot can change in politics in 5 years, but reelection campaigns are usually about the incumbent. This one is in negative net approval rating territory meaning he'll have to convince a significant portion of the French electorate to vote for him even though they disapprove of him. Can he win by saying Le Pen would be worse?
14 Apr 22
@no1marauder saidIt's one thing to say you don't like the job the current person is doing, it's another for someone with baggage to beat him. As we know from US polls, a "generic" Republican or Democrat always does better than the actual candidate.
In May 2017 right after his election, his approval rating was 66% which closely mirrored his vote percentage.
His approval rating now is 44% with 54% disapproval meaning if that same trend continues he'll lose.
A lot can change in politics in 5 years, but reelection campaigns are usually about the incumbent. This one is in negative net approval rating territory mea ...[text shortened]... rate to vote for him even though they disapprove of him. Can he win by saying Le Pen would be worse?
I guess it's my frame of reference, but 66% to me isn't just a win. It's a historic blowout. It would be like Mondale coming back in '88 and beating Reagan.
Anything's possible, I guess. But I'll believe it when it happens.
14 Apr 22
@no1marauder saidFrance doesn't have an electoral college to muck things up. So this prediction may end up being correct.
The take from Nate Silver's 538 is that Macron has about a 1 in 4 chance of losing. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/emmanuel-macron-could-lose-frances-presidential-election/
That's about the chances 538 had of Hillary losing in 2016.