14 Sep 10
Originally posted by sh76I have no idea if she is innocent or not. I have insufficient evidence to determine either way. I lack your ability to convert virtually no information at all into near certainty.
[b]proof... complete... absolute
You are correct. it's not "proof" or "complete" or "absolute" anything. But it's my best theory with a whole heck of a lot of common sense behind it. Nobody who has debated on this thread has expressed anything other than the belief that she is "probably" innocent. I posit that it's more than a mere probability but an en ...[text shortened]... er. If not, I submit that you're the one drawing conclusions based on no evidence.[/b]
14 Sep 10
1 edit
Originally posted by sh76I stated: normally refusing to appear at trial is considered probative evidence of guilt.
You said "refusing to appear at trial is considered probative evidence of guilt" and obviously meant to apply it to one degree or another to this case (otherwise, why would you even mention it?).
Then you said that you'd jump bail in this case whether you were guilty or innocent.
So, does that or does that not indicate that you believe that refusing to appear at trial is not probative evidence of guilt in this case?
I trust you do not despite the accuracy of this remark. You are claiming that such a presumption shouldn't apply here because it's Iran. I do not agree with such a supposition. My point is that in this case the usual possibility of being captured while bail jumping doesn't apply here; if Ms. Shourd bail jumps in the US, Iran will have no recourse. That is a strong incentive for her to do so; it would be strong enough for me to IF the $500,000 wouldn't ruin my family.
14 Sep 10
Originally posted by no1marauderI've heard of reconnaissance. You know, that thing performed by elite forces like Force Recon Marines and specialised 82nd Airborne LRS teams, just to name a couple. Were they wearing cammo when they were abducted?
Have you ever heard of the term "reconnaissance"? Is the Iran-Iraq border considered a "hip" destination to get some mountain air?
If you read the article, you'd know that the political arm of the Iranian government was willing to release her, but that the judiciary balked at her getting special treatment. So a bail was set with the same r ...[text shortened]... at trial; normally refusing to appear at trial is considered probative evidence of guilt.
Also from the article:
"Maziar Bahari, a Canadian-Iranian journalist for Newsweek, was freed last October on $300,000 bail after being jailed for nearly four months in the aftermath of protests set off by Iran’s disputed presidential election."
Notice a pattern? Also -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Shourd
In June 2010, an article in The Nation alleged that two villagers said the hikers were accosted by Iranian authorities while they were on the Iraqi side of the border.[4]
The three had been living and active in the Middle East, and were on holiday in Iraqi Kurdistan, an autonomous region of Iraq free from the sectarian struggle that dominates much of Iraq. They had been advised of the suitability of the region for a holiday by friends who had been there and through Internet research; and were recommended the Ahmed Awa waterfall, a popular Kurdish tourist destination, by a number of local people whilst they were in Sulaymaniyah.[5] After visiting the waterfall, they continued walking within what they believed to be Iraqi Kurdistan, up to and including the time they were detained by Iranian border guards.[6]
According to the BBC, they were not "publicly charged" with a crime by Iran;[7] but according to the New York Times, they have been held on espionage charges since their arrest.[8]
Their companion, Shon Meckfessel, was not detained, as he stayed behind at the Hotel Miwan in Sulaymaniyah because of a cold. He had intended to join them the following day.
Shane Bauer
Shane Bauer is a freelance photojournalist and journalist who has worked for Pacifica News Service, Mother Jones, The Nation and other left-leaning media outlets, using his fluency in speaking Arabic.[9]
[edit] Sarah Shourd
Sarah Emily Shourd works in education and social justice, in Damascus where she was providing educational opportunities to refugees from the war in Iraq and teaching English. She was expected back in Damascus for her teaching job a few days after the three were detained.
Shourd was released by Iran on September 14, 2010 on $500,000 bail[10]. Shourd's bail does not require that she remain in Iran, and her case will still go to trial along with Bauer and Fattal. Shourd's mother has said she has been denied treatment for serious health problems, including a breast lump and precancerous cervical cells.[11]
[edit] Joshua Fattal
Joshua 'Josh' Fattal is an environmentalist and educator. From January to May 2009 he was a teaching fellow for the International Honors Program (IHP)'s "Health and Community" study abroad program. Prior to traveling with the IHP Fattal lived and worked at Aprovecho in Oregon, USA, exploring and promoting sustainable living practices.
Various media outlets and bloggers have confused Fattal with another Joshua Fattal, a student that has written for the teen supplement of a Jewish paper, the Yeshivah of Flatbush in Brooklyn, New York.[12]
_____________
No1, it's OK to recognize the Iranian government is comprised of a bunch of thug asshats. You don't have to side with literally everyone who opposes the evil American empire.
14 Sep 10
Originally posted by USArmyParatrooperSorry, I don't buy into your and GW's "with us or against us" crap. The use of civilian spies to gather on ground information is an age old reconnaissance technique. Americans crossing into Iran at this time is a suspicious act. It may well have been an innocent mistake, but I lack sufficient information to share your and sh76's certainty of innocence.
I've heard of reconnaissance. You know, that thing performed by elite forces like Force Recon Marines and specialised 82nd Airborne LRS teams, just to name a couple. Were they wearing cammo when they were abducted?
Also from the article:
"Maziar Bahari, a Canadian-Iranian journalist for Newsweek, was freed last October on $300,000 bail afte ...[text shortened]... have to side with literally everyone who opposes the evil American empire.
Try this mental experiment: put yourself in he shoes of the Iranian government. A country is making veiled threats (and not very veiled) of military attack. Then three of their nationals are discovered crossing your border in a remote region. What would you think (try it; it shouldn't make your nose bleed)?
14 Sep 10
Originally posted by no1marauderTry this experiment. Actually read the whole thing and then hit reply.
Sorry, I don't buy into your and GW's "with us or against us" crap. The use of civilian spies to gather on ground information is an age old reconnaissance technique. Americans crossing into Iran at this time is a suspicious act. It may well have been an innocent mistake, but I lack sufficient information to share your and sh76's certainty of innocence.
...[text shortened]... rder in a remote region. What would you think (try it; it shouldn't make your nose bleed)?
14 Sep 10
Originally posted by USArmyParatrooperI'm not surprised you absolutely refuse to even attempt to look at it from the Iranian point of view. Your really should try to develop the skill of attempting to figure out what someone else is thinking esp. an "opponent" or "enemy"; it helps a lot in chess.
Try this experiment. Actually read the whole thing and then hit reply.
14 Sep 10
Originally posted by no1marauderI do not dispute the accuracy of the remark.
I stated: normally refusing to appear at trial is considered probative evidence of guilt.
I trust you do not despite the accuracy of this remark. You are claiming that such a presumption shouldn't apply here because it's Iran. I do not agree with such a supposition. My point is that in this case the usual possibility of being captured while ...[text shortened]... r her to do so; it would be strong enough for me to IF the $500,000 wouldn't ruin my family.
However, it is not because it is Iran specifically that I claim that such a presumption shouldn't apply here. I would say the same for any person held on charges by another country that it openly hostile to that person's country/ organization.
For example, if a Lebanese-Iranian alleged member of Hezbollah held in an Israeli prison were to "jump bail" I would absolutely not consider it probative evidence of guilt; and, I assume that neither would you.
14 Sep 10
Originally posted by USArmyParatroopersorry, you're wasting your time. no1m doesn't truckle to The Nation or The New York Times: they're known conservative rags.
...
In June 2010, an article in The Nation alleged that two villagers said the hikers were accosted by Iranian authorities [b]while they were on the Iraqi side of the border.[4]
The three had been living and active in the Middle East, and were on holiday in Iraqi Kurdistan, an autonomous region of Iraq free from the sectarian struggle tha ...[text shortened]... ng to the New York Times, they have been held on espionage charges since their arrest.[8]
...[/b]
14 Sep 10
Originally posted by sh76(Shrug) I would still consider it some evidence of guilt though of less probative worth than under normal circumstances.
I do not dispute the accuracy of the remark.
However, it is not because it is Iran specifically that I claim that such a presumption shouldn't apply here. I would say the same for any person held on charges by another country that it openly hostile to that person's country/ organization.
For example, if a Lebanese-Iranian alleged member of Hezbollah held ...[text shortened]... bsolutely not consider it probative evidence of guilt; and, I assume that neither would you.
15 Sep 10
Originally posted by sh76If these arguments are valid, why are they still holding Shane Bauer and Joshua Fattal? The release of Shourd seems to have been based on medical reasons; the Iranian prosecutors insist that the cases are going forward against all three. So her release on humanitarian grounds tells me nothing about the quality of evidence against her.
They know perfectly well that she's never coming back. If it were really a matter of ensuring that she shows up for trial (which is what bail is supposed to be), they'd obviously remand her. No amount of bail is going to convince her to come back and stand "trial."
If they had any evidence against her other than that she was hiking in the mountains when she ...[text shortened]... re. What does that tell you about the quality of the "evidence" they have against her?
It's interesting that Shane Bauer has written over 30 published articles in the US, most having to do with Middle Eastern issues. Isn't it plausible that far from being an innocent hiker, he intended to cross into Iran for research purposes at a time when Iran had just gone through a major upheaval relating to its Presidential election?
15 Sep 10
Originally posted by no1marauderOriginally posted by USArmyParatrooper
If these arguments are valid, why are they still holding Shane Bauer and Joshua Fattal? The release of Shourd seems to have been based on medical reasons; the Iranian prosecutors insist that the cases are going forward against all three. So her release on humanitarian grounds tells me nothing about the quality of evidence against her.
It's ...[text shortened]... a time when Iran had just gone through a major upheaval relating to its Presidential election?
...
In June 2010, an article in The Nation alleged that two villagers said the hikers were accosted by Iranian authorities while they were on the Iraqi side of the border.[4]
...
15 Sep 10
okay, let's say it r-e-a-l-l-y s-l-o-w, f-o-r n-o-1-m ...
Originally posted by USArmyParatrooper
...
I-n J-u-n-e 2-0-1-0, a-n a-r-t-i-c-l-e i-n T-h-e N-a-t-i-o-n a-l-l-e-g-e-d t-h-a-t t-w-o v-i-l-l-a-g-e-r-s s-a-i-d t-h-e h-i-k-e-r-s w-e-r-e a-c-c-o-s-t-e-d b-y I-r-a-n-i-a-n a-u-t-h-o-r-i-t-i-e-s w-h-i-l-e t-h-e-y w-e-r-e o-n t-h-e I-r-a-q-i s-i-d-e o-f t-h-e b-o-r-d-e-r. [4]
...
15 Sep 10
Originally posted by zeeblebotI read it. Sorry if I don't find unconfirmed gossip from anonymous sources as 100% reliable as you and StormTrooper do.
Originally posted by USArmyParatrooper
...
In June 2010, an article in The Nation alleged that two villagers said the hikers were accosted by Iranian authorities while they were on the Iraqi side of the border.[4]
...