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25 Jun 20
5 edits
@no1marauder saidTHREE separate posts!
What "prediction"? There really, really were 645 deaths due to COVID in the US among age 25-34 in the nine week period discussed.
Assuming the death rates for other causes was typical in that period for the same age group, COVID would have been the 4th leading cause of death in that age group in that period.
Your gobbledygook doesn't change that.
“3870 deaths would be more than any cause of death among 25-34 year olds in the US but accidents, homicides and suicides.” - no1
“I'd prefer to use the full 9 weeks that ended in April and May; you can adjust the count by 3.2% for a bimonthly average or times it by 5.78 to get a yearly one.
You get about 623 bimonthly using the first method and 3728 yearly using the second. “ -no1
“Guess it's simpler to divide 645 by 63 and then multiply by 365. The result is 3737.” -no1
Now it’s suddenly pot calling the kettle( warning blatant goalpost shift ):
”In that period” -no1 ( 9 week period out of 52 to be exact)
By the time the annual data is tallied COVID deaths will represent a minuscule fraction off ALL deaths in that age group.
Common...show some class! Have some dignity for once!
25 Jun 20
1 edit
@joe-shmo said5.5% in April and May 2020.
THREE separate posts!
“3870 deaths would be more than any cause of death among 25-34 year olds in the US but accidents, homicides and suicides.” - no1
“I'd prefer to use the full 9 weeks that ended in April and May; you can adjust the count by 3.2% for a bimonthly average or times it by 5.78 to get a yearly one.
You get about 623 bimonthly using the first method and ...[text shortened]... fraction off ALL deaths in that age group.
Common...show some class! Have some dignity for once!
That would make it somewhere around the fourth leading cause of death for the age group 25 to 34.
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25 Jun 20
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@no1marauder saidBy the time the annual data is tallied COVID deaths will represent a minuscule fraction off ALL deaths in that age group-even if we completely ignore the first three months of the year!
5.5%.
25 Jun 20
@joe-shmo saidLike I said, you are trying to use fake stats by including periods where there were few, if any, COVID deaths. This is dishonest as you well know.
By the time the annual data is tallied COVID deaths will represent a minuscule fraction off ALL deaths in that age group!
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25 Jun 20
2 edits
@no1marauder saidI’m trying to use fake stats! That is too rich!!
Like I said, you are trying to use fake stats by including periods where there were few, if any, COVID deaths. This is dishonest as you well know.
See my edit. I know this is difficult for lawyers, but quit being dishonest!
25 Jun 20
1 edit
@joe-shmo saidIs that another one of your bold, stat based predictions like 40,000 total COVID deaths in the US and virtually none in Sweden w/e June 15?
I’m trying to use fake stats! That is too rich!!
See my edit. I know this is difficult for lawyers, but quit being dishonest!
How about this: COVID will be in the top 10 causes of death for Americans aged 25 to 34 in 2020.
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25 Jun 20
@no1marauder saidSo that’s your prediction: Top 10 annual age 25-34. When I get home and am able to properly examine the data I’ll give you odds.
Is that another one of your bold, stat based predictions like 40,000 total COVID deaths in the US and virtually none in Sweden w/e June 15?
How about this: COVID will be in the top 10 causes of death for Americans aged 25 to 34 in 2020.
26 Jun 20
@joe-shmo saidPerhaps the way I stated this was confusing; I was trying to get some idea of how COVID deaths in April and May among the 25-34 age group would compare to other causes of death among that group. I used the most recent info on could find from the CDC which gave the top 10 causes of death in different age groups from 2015. https://www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars/pdf/leading_causes_of_death_by_age_group_2015-a.pdf
THREE separate posts!
“3870 deaths would be more than any cause of death among 25-34 year olds in the US but accidents, homicides and suicides.” - no1
“I'd prefer to use the full 9 weeks that ended in April and May; you can adjust the count by 3.2% for a bimonthly average or times it by 5.78 to get a yearly one.
You get about 623 bimonthly using the first method and ...[text shortened]... fraction off ALL deaths in that age group.
Common...show some class! Have some dignity for once!
Because the 2015 were yearly, I tried to make the two months COVID figures into yearly ones to make them comparable. It would be possible to take the figures from 2015 and make them represent nine weeks worth of data to compare them to the 2020 COVID data instead. You'd simply divide the death numbers by 365 and multiply by 63 except with the COVID ones since we already have this years CDC numbers (though preliminary). The figures would then look like this:
Unintentional injury 3,416
Suicide 1,199
Homicide 839
COVID 645
Malignant
Neoplasms 639
Heart Disease 611
Liver Disease 146
etc. etc. etc.
Of course, this is a rough estimate for other causes of death among 25-34 year olds in 2020 but it does show that COVID in April and May was a major cause of death in the US for that group, perhaps as high as 3rd (homicide rates have gone done since 2015) and certainly no lower than 6th.
Thus, your initial stated premise that only the elderly are "susceptible" to COVID is quite wrong.
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26 Jun 20
1 edit
@no1marauder saidI can assure you...what you were “doing” was not “confusing” in the least bit. It worked exactly the way I designed it to do so.
Perhaps the way I stated this was confusing; I was trying to get some idea of how COVID deaths in April and May among the 25-34 age group would compare to other causes of death among that group. I used the most recent info on could find from the CDC which gave the top 10 causes of death in different age groups from 2015. https://www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars/pdf/leading_cau ...[text shortened]...
Thus, your initial stated premise that only the elderly are "susceptible" to COVID is quite wrong.
Me: bet you can’t tie a noose?
No1: sure I can!
Me: here is some rope tied to a beam
No1: ties noose.
Me: does it work?
No1: slips neck through hole and jumps off bridge!
It was a real knee slapper!
26 Jun 20
@caesar-salad saidIt is called the cost of not being the boy in the bubble.
A low infection fatality rate (IFR) would be nice, but I'm concerned about getting infected and having to live with one or more kinds of persistent damage afterward.
26 Jun 20
@joe-shmo saidIf by that you mean I adequately showed your original statement was incorrect, exactly.
I can assure you...what you were “doing” was not “confusing” in the least bit. It worked exactly the way I designed it to do so.
Me: bet you can’t tie a noose?
No1: sure I can!
Me: here is some rope tied to a beam
No1: ties noose.
Me: does it work?
No1: slips neck through hole and jumps off bridge!
It was a real knee slapper!
26 Jun 20
@caesar-salad saidThen you are normal.
A low infection fatality rate (IFR) would be nice, but I'm concerned about getting infected and having to live with one or more kinds of persistent damage afterward.
Some people, not hospitalized, have taken months to recover. Some have been fighting it for months.
Certainly, this is not a trivial disease.