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28 Jun 20
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@no1marauder saidAccording to this [1]...I'm not taking the bet. It will be in there. The #10 spot (flu) is just 0.9% of the total deaths in 2018 for age 25-34 and the #6 is just 2%. None of the bottom 5 are statistically significant ( combined they comprise less than 7% of the total deaths ).
Is that another one of your bold, stat based predictions like 40,000 total COVID deaths in the US and virtually none in Sweden w/e June 15?
How about this: COVID will be in the top 10 causes of death for Americans aged 25 to 34 in 2020.
I will take the bet that is won't make Top 5 (statistically significant categories).
[1] https://www.cdc.gov/injury/images/lc-charts/leading_causes_of_death_by_age_group_2018_1100w850h.jpg
28 Jun 20
1 edit
@joe-shmo saidThanks for the 2018 stats; it shows that in the nine week period discussed COVID would have been the 4th leading cause of deaths among 25-34 year olds just like I said. It also shows it killing at 8 times the rate of the flu and pneumonia combined. There are also already more reported deaths from COVID in 2020 for that age group then there were for HIV in the entire year of 2018.
According to this [1]...I'm not taking the bet. It will be in there. The #10 spot (flu) is just 0.9% of the total deaths in 2018 for age 25-34 and the #6 is just 2%. None of the bottom 5 are statistically significant ( combined they comprise less than 7% of the total deaths ).
I will take the bet that is won't make Top 5 (statistically significant categories).
[1 ...[text shortened]... https://www.cdc.gov/injury/images/lc-charts/leading_causes_of_death_by_age_group_2018_1100w850h.jpg
Thanks for helping to show what a serious health risk COVID is for those in the 25-34 year old age category.
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@no1marauder saidIt won't make the Top 5 which represent 93% of deaths in 2018 for the age group! The Bottom 5 just represent 7%...Time to put on the critical thinking cap friend.
Thanks for the 2018 stats; it shows that in the nine week period ( warning goalpost shift bullspit detected ) discussed COVID would have been the 4th leading cause of deaths among 25-34 year olds just like I said. It also shows it killing at 8 times the rate of the flu and pneumonia combined. There are also already more reported deaths from COVID ...[text shortened]... or helping to show what a serious health risk COVID is for those in the 25-34 year old age category.
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@no1marauder said
5.5% in April and May 2020.
That would make it somewhere around the fourth leading cause of death for the age group 25 to 34.
5.5% in April and May 2020.
False.
7.1% in April
4.0% in May
It will represent less than 4% in June
28 Jun 20
@joe-shmo saidDo you know what the word "false" means?5.5% in April and May 2020.
False.
7.1% in April
4.0% in May
It will represent less than 4% in June
"I also totalled up the weekly deaths given in the CDC link YOU directed me to and then divided the number of COVID deaths by the total deaths among US 25-34 year olds in April and May. The result was about 5.5%; 645/11,799."
My statement obviously isn't "false".
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@no1marauder saidSorry, Ill rephrase...piss poor representation of the actual trend in the rate. Satisfied?
Do you know what the word "false" means?
"I also totalled up the weekly deaths given in the CDC link YOU directed me to and then divided the number of COVID deaths by the total deaths among US 25-34 year olds in April and May. The result was about 5.5%; 645/11,799."
My statement obviously isn't "false".
28 Jun 20
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@joe-shmo saidThere is nothing goalpost shifting about comparing the deaths during the months when the outbreak occurred (which also happen to be the months where we have adequate data) to total deaths. Your and others consistent attempts to minimize the death tolls by including them in percentages from periods when no COVID deaths were reported is deliberately deceitful.
It won't make the Top 5 which represent 93% of deaths in 2018 for the age group! The Bottom 5 just represent 7%...Time to put on the critical thinking cap friend.
Your guesswork has been proven spectacularly wrong in the past, so let me have a good laugh about your level of confidence. At any rate, your claim that only the elderly are "susceptible" to COVID19 has been shown to be laughably incorrect and you should swallow your pride and admit it.
28 Jun 20
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@joe-shmo saidNo, I'm pretty dissatisfied with the level of your dishonesty.
Sorry, Ill rephrase...piss poor representation of the actual trend in the rate. Satisfied?
Is 5.5% "miniscule"?
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@no1marauder saidDishonest!...Those are two completely different figures you are trying to sell!
No, I'm pretty dissatisfied with the level of your dishonesty.
Is 5.5% "miniscule"?
The constant lie told here by right wingers that only the elderly die from COVID has been debunked many times; the NYC data says about 25% of deaths were 65 or younger.- no1marauder
In the town where I live, a 29 year old died of COVID.
Ages 25-34 represents just 0.68% of COVID Deaths! YOU are trying to pass off an example of a 29 year old's death as representative of the "25%" figure. That is an absolute ludicrous distortion of reality! Secondly, according to the CDC its 20% of Deaths less than 65. and only 8% come from less than 55 years of age. Who is being dishonest!
In summary: You are a charlatan...par for the course as far as shyster lawyers go!
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@no1marauder said
There is nothing goalpost shifting about comparing the deaths during the months when the outbreak occurred (which also happen to be the months where we have adequate data) to total deaths. Your and others consistent attempts to minimize the death tolls by including them in percentages from periods when no COVID deaths were reported is deliberately deceitful.
Your gues ...[text shortened]... to COVID19 has been shown to be laughably incorrect and you should swallow your pride and admit it.
Your guesswork has been proven spectacularly wrong in the past, so let me have a good laugh about your level of confidence. At any rate, your claim that only the elderly are "susceptible" to COVID19 has been shown to be laughably incorrect and you should swallow your pride and admit it.
The difference between us is that "my errors" in modeling arise from subtle computational concepts that you can't begin to fathom... Yours, on the other hand, arise directly by design... honed to near perfection through years of professional training in the art of lying.
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28 Jun 20
@no1marauder saidYes. A current average 2 ( peak )month figure of 5% that will continue to dilute and fall for the foreseeable future is “minuscule” with respect to the other 95%.
No, I'm pretty dissatisfied with the level of your dishonesty.
Is 5.5% "miniscule"?
28 Jun 20
@joe-shmo saidHow pathetic. It was YOU who limited the discussion to those in the 25-34 year old category, but I have shown even in that group the death toll in April and May was among the leading causes of death for those in it. Of course, in the far larger group of those under 65, the death toll is far higher, putting the lie to your stupid claim that only the elderly were "susceptible" to COVID19. That you continue to double, triple and quadruple down on that lie rather than simply admit your error shows a complete lack of integrity.
Dishonest!...Those are two completely different figures you are trying to sell!The constant lie told here by right wingers that only the elderly die from COVID has been debunked many times; the NYC data says about 25% of deaths were 65 or younger.- no1marauder
In the town where I live, a 29 year old died of COVID.
Ages 25-34 represents just [b] 0.68 ...[text shortened]... ing dishonest!
In summary: You are a charlatan...par for the course as far as shyster lawyers go!
And screeching name calling isn't going to rehabilitate the lack of character you are showing.
28 Jun 20
@joe-shmo saidSorry, but miniscule is defined as "very small" and 5.5% of deaths in a particular group doesn't meet such a definition.
Yes. A current average 2 ( peak )month figure of 5% that will continue to dilute and fall for the foreseeable future is “minuscule” with respect to the other 95%.
28 Jun 20
@eladar said47,000 confirmed cases two days ago (a record), 43,000 more yesterday.
At the moment , on average 10 to 20 people die per state each day.
If you listen to the media, the world is coming to an end.
The death toll is almost certain to rise ......................................... and mostly because, for political reasons, a significant minority absolutely refuse to take simple measures to reduce the spread of the disease.
Your, Joe's, Earl's and the rest's death cult is an almost unfathomable response to a deadly pandemic.