@ponderable saidI have always said 60k, that was my guess based on flu seasons.
No. you tell me: Did you or did you not underestimate.
As I tried to tell you multiple times. You can compare AFTER it ended, not before.
Your claim that the USA will max out at a few thousand, have you been right or wrong?
Your claim that the US will be below 60.000 (which you claim to be a typical number, but it is an extreme already) has been correct or not?
...[text shortened]... s, has this been correct or not?
And to asner your question: not yet, but the case is not closed.
My guess was better than the 2 million dead projection by far. In no way would there be 2 milliin dead in the US from this virus, the spread is only exponential in the beginning, it slows down, just look at Sweden.
If you want to pretend that 60k was not more accurate than the 2 million projection based on faulty assumptions, then you are intellectually dishonest.
Even with politicians aiding in the spread it would not hit 2 million.
This thing will be no where as deadly as the Spanish Flu. This thing was hype from the start.
About that dumb ass 2.2 million dead prediction from the Imperial College.
The worst‐case Imperial College estimate of 2.2 million deaths if everyone does “nothing” did notsimply mean no government lockdowns, as a March 31 White House graph with two curves implied. It meant nobody avoids crowded elevators, or wears face masks, washes their hands more often, or buys gloves or hand sanitizer. Everyone does literally nothing to avoid danger.The Ferguson team knew that was unrealistic, yet their phantasmal 2.2 million estimate depended on it. As they reticently acknowledged, “it is highly likely that there would be significant spontaneous change in population behavior even in the absence of government‐mandated interventions.” An earlier February 20 brief said, “Some social distancing is to be expected, even in the absence of formal control measures.”
https://www.cato.org/blog/how-one-model-simulated-22-million-us-deaths-covid-19
Hype, hype, hype leading the countries of the world on a foolish course.
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@eladar saidto justify big money grabbing by corporations..per Congress.
About that dumb ass 2.2 million dead prediction from the Imperial College.
[i]The worst‐case Imperial College estimate of 2.2 million deaths if everyone does “nothing” did notsimply mean no government lockdowns, as a March 31 White House graph with two curves implied. It meant nobody avoids crowded elevators, or wears face masks, washes their hands more often, or buys glo ...[text shortened]... ion-us-deaths-covid-19
Hype, hype, hype leading the countries of the world on a foolish course.
@ogb saidThat is definitely part of it.
to justify big money grabbing by corporations..per Congress.
I think we are far past worrying about the military industrial complex, now it is all major industries tied into the government getting their share.
I wonder how many non Americans get that reference. I wonder how many Americans get the reference.