03 Apr 08
Originally posted by der schwarze RitterWhat do you mean 'If it runs out?' Do you seriously subscribe to the
By the time the oil runs out, 30, 40, 50 or more years from now (if it runs out, which I'm not convinced that it will since I don't subscribe to the "peak oil" theory) we will have moved onto another source of energy or our ability to tap further into the earth's supplies of oil will be beyond what anyone can imagine today.
notion that there is an infinite amount of oil? Of the ignorant things
you've ever said, this tops the list (which is saying something!).
What is that 'other source of energy' that you feel that we will have
moved onto? Where is that technology now? It's taken us over 100
years to establish our oil-centered social infrastructure and economy;
why would you believe that we would be able to replace it with something
(the nebulous 'other source'😉 in '30, 40, or 50 years?'
Look at ethanol, which is an alternative fuel (never mind the other
petroleum-based products and industries for which ethnanol cannot
be a substitute). It burns cooler and yields less return. It's harder
to produce and the current means of producing it involves oil. The
expense of producing it will go up markedly once oil use becomes
economically unfeasible.
There is no debate that, at present, we have no viable alternative to
oil; do you really think it's wise to be so confident (even snide!) that
we'll find something as soon as we need it?
Nemesio
03 Apr 08
Originally posted by gregajHow can you say that oil will not run out? Yes, it will get more and more
Love the theme. I've learned this as well: oil will not run out.It will just be too expensive to drill. More energy invested than gained.
expensive, and perhaps it will become prohibitively expensive before
it runs out, but there is a finite amount. Only so many dinosaurs died
and got crushed into oil. There weren't an infinite amount of dinosaurs,
so there cannot be an infinite amount of oil.
But what difference does it make if there is 'no oil left' and 'no oil
available?' None. The result is the same. And, as I said, we have no
viable alternative at this point in time. If we have past the so-called
peak, then the 50-year guess is a very, very optimistic one. And, with
no other technologies even remotely prepared to take the place, what
could possibly be the result?
Nemesio
03 Apr 08
2 edits
Originally posted by NemesioPeople are worried about oil running out and wonder why we are not distancing ourselves from the oil industry as a result. However, I say that necessity is the mother of invention and we will simply use what is the most cost effective. At some point oil will no longer be a cost effective form of energy due to supply issues and we will be forced to turn to other fuel sources. I am confident other fuel sources will be found even though they may cost us more than oil does today. Brazil is an example. They do not import one drop of oil but instead use sugar cane I believe.
How can you say that oil will not run out? Yes, it will get more and more
expensive, and perhaps it will become prohibitively expensive before
it runs out, but there is a finite amount. Only so many dinosaurs died
and got crushed into oil. There weren't an infinite amount of dinosaurs,
so there cannot be an infinite amount of oil.
But what differen es even remotely prepared to take the place, what
could possibly be the result?
Nemesio
Also keep in mind that just because there may be a cheaper fuel alternative does not mean we will go that direction all at once. For example, there are other economic reasons that oil remains king such as the welfare of the oil indursty and authomotive industry etc. Oil dependent or oil geared industries would take an economic blow as would the rest of the world economy if oil was abandaned altogether. However, I think the transition is slowly occuring with the advent of solar, wind, and nuclear power as it slowly creeps across the globe. Slowly oil will loose its strangle hold over the economies and governments of the world. The only quesiton remains, will this transition occur fast enough to prevent financial global calamity?
03 Apr 08
Originally posted by Palynkawhy unlikely? because the human genius will save the day? that humans will give up the commodities they are used to and use lesser others? people are driving suvs even thoug they are screwd every time they fill up at the gas stations. or they refuse to consider a hybrid because it costs a little more money to buy and of course, doesn't have the horses a gas hungry vehicle does.
You still provide no argument as to why that "collapse" should happen or why that time would be short. The pressure for changing the technology on plastics will begin when they become relatively expensive.
I already explained why it is unlikely for such collapses to happen and now you say that my argument is to "force the people to walk"? That's not my ar ...[text shortened]... ure. This is another motive, though, and not necessarily related with the shortage of oil.
forgive me that i am a glass is half empty type. but when the so called critical moment approaches, we would have a sh|tload of stuff to replace, that is why it is best to start now.
03 Apr 08
why do you all ignore the fact that not having oil as fuel will be the least of our problems? we can make a car running on vodka or anything that burns.
some study said that if the state of nevada(including the sinful hell hole las vegas😀) would be covered in solar panels(not the awesome sf kind, the today kind), all of the energy usage of america would be covered. we have energy covered, we just lack the will to use alternative means. however when it would be as costly to own a car as it is to own a private jet today i believe people will want to drive a solar car.
the main issue is oil as a raw material for the chemical industry. nowadays you have plastic in every commodity. you need oil and other fossil fuels to make many pharmaceuticals. not having plastic or medicine will be far more inconvenient than not having what to burn.
03 Apr 08
Originally posted by uzlessI didn't mention any oil shortage. I said that oil price is going up (the reason is increased international demand not simply "speculators"😉 and that creates incentives for replacements. That's all my example needs.
Come on, there is no oil shortage. The price of oil has gone up largely due to speculators. In the 90's oil was 10 bux a barrell. Do you think all of a sudden the oil is gone?
The only shortage we have is a "REFINING CAPACITY SHORTAGE" Oil companies haven't built enough refineries to be able to supply the finished product (gas) that comes from oil. W ...[text shortened]... Q_ENCA259&sa=X&oi=spell&resnum=0&ct=result&cd=1&q=%22refining+capacity+shortage%22&spell=1
Nevertheless, one could still argue for the case that oil producers and refineries are not increasing capacity because they know oil isn't unlimited. Since it's a demand shock this behaviour would lead to higher current profits and not just some "speculator" bogeyman story.
03 Apr 08
Originally posted by ZahlanziFirst of all, plastics is just around 4% of total consumption, so oil reserves would last much longer if not for the energy and transport sectors. Secondly, there already are potential substitutes for petroleum-based plastics, such as bioplastics. They're not fully competitive yet, even with the price of oil going up, but there are promising avenues already, such as polyactic acid based bioplastic.
why do you all ignore the fact that not having oil as fuel will be the least of our problems? we can make a car running on vodka or anything that burns.
some study said that if the state of nevada(including the sinful hell hole las vegas😀) would be covered in solar panels(not the awesome sf kind, the today kind), all of the energy usage of america would b ...[text shortened]... cals. not having plastic or medicine will be far more inconvenient than not having what to burn.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polylactic_acid
03 Apr 08
Originally posted by Palynkait doesn't matter that it's just 4% it matters that the 96% oil is getting used up too quickly when it doesn't have to.
First of all, plastics is just around 4% of total consumption, so oil reserves would last much longer if not for the energy and transport sectors. Secondly, there already are potential substitutes for petroleum-based plastics, such as bioplastics. They're not fully competitive yet, even with the price of oil going up, but there are promising avenues already, such as polyactic acid based bioplastic.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polylactic_acid
bioplastics are nowhere near slightly competitive. and yeah, let's not use oil for plastics, let's cut down trees instead. not to mention that by the time we will be out of oil who knows how screwd up this planet will be and you want to grow plants and bacteria for plastics instead of food. much better. but you still haven't adressed the issue of oil as raw material for chemical industry. or pharmaceutical industry.
of course you can find alternatives for each issue. that was not why i said your argument doesn't work. i said it is irresponsible to wait for a collapse to happen when you can start right now. because if sh|t hits the fan fast enough, we might not be able to find solutions.
03 Apr 08
1 edit
Originally posted by ZahlanziOf course it matters. The same quantity of oil would last much more if not for transport and energy. This allows for much more research time.
it doesn't matter that it's just 4% it matters that the 96% oil is getting used up too quickly when it doesn't have to.
bioplastics are nowhere near slightly competitive. and yeah, let's not use oil for plastics, let's cut down trees instead. not to mention that by the time we will be out of oil who knows how screwd up this planet will be and you want to ht now. because if sh|t hits the fan fast enough, we might not be able to find solutions.
You're just being silly now. I don't see the point of going through every single application of oil to prove that there are alternatives being researched. The main applications already have alternatives. Certainly more costly, but not nearly enough for collapse of our system or for the need to 'totally restructure' our societies.
03 Apr 08
Originally posted by Palynkawhat do you mean last?
Of course it matters. The same quantity of oil would last much more if not for transport and energy. This allows for much more research time.
You're just being silly now. I don't see the point of going through every single application of oil to prove that there are alternatives being researched. The main applications already have alternatives. Certainly m ...[text shortened]... ly enough for collapse of our system or for the need to 'totally restructure' our societies.
you were talking about the critical point when stuff is running out and becomes very expensive. you were saying that then the hoomans will start replacing oil in our industries. and i am saying that by then it might be too late. especially if we burn now oil like it grows on trees.
viable alternatives must be researched and implemented now, not then when you are facing economical collapse and more than likely riots because of lack of pharmaceuticals and other commodities
03 Apr 08
Originally posted by Zahlanziyou were talking about the critical point when stuff is running out and becomes very expensive.
what do you mean last?
you were talking about the critical point when stuff is running out and becomes very expensive. you were saying that then the hoomans will start replacing oil in our industries. and i am saying that by then it might be too late. especially if we burn now oil like it grows on trees.
viable alternatives must be researched and implem ...[text shortened]... cal collapse and more than likely riots because of lack of pharmaceuticals and other commodities
No, I wasn't talking about any 'critical point'. My whole argument is against the existence of such a defined clear-cut moment. A peak will exist, that's obvious, but my opinion is that around it there will be a smooth transition.
you were saying that then the hoomans will start replacing oil in our industries.
I also didn't say that THEN the 'humans will start replacing oil in our industries. I was saying that the market forces will imply that this starts much earlier. In fact, it has already started.
viable alternatives must be researched and implemented now, not then when you are facing economical collapse and more than likely riots because of lack of pharmaceuticals and other commodities
Please. Look around you. Viable alternatives are already being researched and implemented now. It's an ongoing process. If the price of oil keeps going up, the expected profits from this kind of research goes up and more entrepreneurs will invest in such research. Why do you think Silicon Valley's entrepreneurs are shifting into environmental technology?
03 Apr 08
Originally posted by Palynkawell it is clear to me that you place so much faith in hoomans that you are approaching the point of being naive.
[b]you were talking about the critical point when stuff is running out and becomes very expensive.
No, I wasn't talking about any 'critical point'. My whole argument is against the existence of such a defined clear-cut moment. A peak will exist, that's obvious, but my opinion is that around it there will be a smooth transition.
you were saying tha ...[text shortened]... do you think Silicon Valley's entrepreneurs are shifting into environmental technology?
smooth transition? oil is already being replaced? with what? more oil?
why are suv's still being build when we know they eat enough oil for several smaller cars?
this kind of research is mainly done by either big oil companies or governments. if the oil prices go up it will mean more profits for oil company who will have a precious commodity. and the politicians who are supported by big oil companies are certainly not gonna vote for research that would replace a profitable product. see dick cheney who said that as long as oil will not run out so long as he is alive he doesn't give a sh|t.
so be a glass is half full and hope for a smooth transition. i say that much more needs to be done to force governments to take action. and that at the rate we are going, the transition will be bumpy. the general riots, economical collapse of civilization kind of bumpy.
03 Apr 08
Originally posted by ZahlanziWe clearly aren't communicating as you keep attacking something that is not what I'm saying at all.
well it is clear to me that you place so much faith in hoomans that you are approaching the point of being naive.
smooth transition? oil is already being replaced? with what? more oil?
why are suv's still being build when we know they eat enough oil for several smaller cars?
this kind of research is mainly done by either big oil companies or governm ...[text shortened]... ransition will be bumpy. the general riots, economical collapse of civilization kind of bumpy.
03 Apr 08
Originally posted by Palynkawell let's recap.
We clearly aren't communicating as you keep attacking something that is not what I'm saying at all.
never mind what you said or what i said. we start fresh
i am saying that the transition from fossil fuels to alternatives, whether fuels or raw material for synthetics(all synthetics that use fossil fuel) must start as soon as possible and on a much larger scale than what we do today.
i am also saying that if we continue to waste as we waste today and wait for necessity to drive us to research alternatives(again on a larger scale than today) we will most likely have a very screwd future.
what are you saying to my saying and in addition to my saying?