42d
This election deserves one. So after thinking about it, here it is:
The Dems lost their base, but kept their elites.
The Repubs lost their elites, but kept their base.
The Dems lost the white worker base by not 'seeing' them. They talked endlessly about woke and gay and trans and minority and protect migrants and diversity - but the average working stiff doesn't care about any of that. The base didn't cross over to Trump, they just weren't motivated to come out. They missed the fantastic work Biden did for workers on the economy because there was also inflation, so that was a wash.
Meanwhile, the Repubs lost their elites - Romney, Cheney, the Bushes, the Never Trumpers, The Bulwark, George Will, The Lincoln Project, etc. But the base remained solid, even while those people fled.
So the base is more important than the elites? Obviously. Voting is about mass.
The abortion thing, though, was mind-blowing. Overturn Roe and don't lost a SINGLE net vote! But whatever. It is what it is.
The rest makes sense.
😆
42d
@spruce112358 saidNot buying it.
This election deserves one. So after thinking about it, here it is:
The Dems lost their base, but kept their elites.
The Repubs lost their elites, but kept their base.
The Dems lost the white worker base by not 'seeing' them. They talked endlessly about woke and gay and trans and minority and protect migrants and diversity - but the average working stiff doesn't c ...[text shortened]... Roe and don't lost a SINGLE net vote! But whatever. It is what it is.
The rest makes sense.
😆
42d
@spruce112358 saidNo, this is the same nonsense we're hearing on TV.
@Suzianne
Why. Because you think I'm 'Elite'? 😆
"All this is the Democrats' fault."
No, it's not. The Russian interference in this election was arguably more than in 2016, and we so far have no details on how many Democrats were taken off the voter rolls this time. We already know that massive numbers were taken off the rolls in 2016. This is the very same, non-imaginative playbook. The mainstream media missed it then, and we're missing it now.
We're even blaming ourselves. Why are we handing the Trumpublicans every single thing they need for legitimacy?
41d
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@Suzianne saidI'm not convinced that Russia can directly affect our election machinery. If a candidate solicits or accepts foreign help, that should definitely be prosecuted.
No, this is the same nonsense we're hearing on TV.
"All this is the Democrats' fault."
No, it's not. The Russian interference in this election was arguably more than in 2016, and we so far have no details on how many Democrats were taken off the voter rolls this time. We already know that massive numbers were taken off the rolls in 2016. This is the very same, non-i ...[text shortened]... laming ourselves. Why are we handing the Trumpublicans every single thing they need for legitimacy?
As for fiddling with the rolls, they normally get cleaned up every year or two, removing dead people, non-residents, and people who haven't voted in awhile. But it is without regard to party. I know they tried to "supercharge" that in some places, but I've not heard about 1000's of Dems who tried to vote and couldn't because they were not on the rolls.
Worse than the rolls is the legal but wrong process of gerrymandering. NC is about 50-50 in party affiliation but because of extreme gerrymanders, we will go from a 7-7 rep split of 10 Repubs and only 4 Dems. My district snakes around Raleigh and heads up to the VA border, so now I'll be represented by R in the House.
As for legitimacy, that comes from winning the election, @Suzianne! 😀
41d
@spruce112358 saidBut it's like honor and integrity.
I'm not convinced that Russia can directly affect our election machinery. If a candidate solicits or accepts foreign help, that should definitely be prosecuted.
As for fiddling with the rolls, they normally get cleaned up every year or two, removing dead people, non-residents, and people who haven't voted in awhile. But it is without regard to party. I know they tried ...[text shortened]... esented by R in the House.
As for legitimacy, that comes from winning the election, @Suzianne! 😀
It's not automatic.
My oath as a government employee was to pledge to defend the Constitution, against all enemies, foreign and domestic. It is not and was not a popularity contest for the president at the time. Trump has violated numerous Amendments, which threatens the Constitution.
Trump and his new administration exemplify this. (I gotta use big words to keep the rednecks off my back.)
Cleaning the voter rolls is one thing and yes, it usually only removes at most, thousands, usually more like dozens. The purges in swing states in 2016 resulted in millions coming off the rolls across 26 states. Apparently they forgot to do it in 2020.
41d
@Sleepyguy saidOh, the classics are the best.
I think you just need new material.
And what with the trump appointments, it’s just a rehash of stupidity, but then times 10.
I love it!
41d
@Suzianne saidFor a voter roll purge to be effective in stealing an election, you would have to purge more of 'their side' than your side. And those people would have to be people who were gonna vote.
Cleaning the voter rolls is one thing and yes, it usually only removes at most, thousands, usually more like dozens. The purges in swing states in 2016 resulted in millions coming off the rolls across 26 states. Apparently they forgot to do it in 2020.
If that had happened, someone would have walked out of the polling place, gone up to 'their side' that was handing out brochures or a poll watcher and said, "I tried to vote but couldn't." That would have blown up very fast into a news story.
Did you hear about that anywhere in the country?
41d
@Suzianne saidLemme ask you then, which states did the Russians interfere with?
No, this is the same nonsense we're hearing on TV.
"All this is the Democrats' fault."
No, it's not. The Russian interference in this election was arguably more than in 2016, and we so far have no details on how many Democrats were taken off the voter rolls this time. We already know that massive numbers were taken off the rolls in 2016. This is the very same, non-i ...[text shortened]... laming ourselves. Why are we handing the Trumpublicans every single thing they need for legitimacy?
Why did Trump improve most in non-swing states? Florida, New York, New Jersey. These were the states Trump improved in much more than in the key swing states?
Why would the Russians interfere with New York and New Jersey if those were irrelevant states? And how would you explain the results in those states?
41d
@spruce112358 saidI think you're pretty close. I'd quibble with this:
This election deserves one. So after thinking about it, here it is:
The Dems lost their base, but kept their elites.
The Repubs lost their elites, but kept their base.
The Dems lost the white worker base by not 'seeing' them. They talked endlessly about woke and gay and trans and minority and protect migrants and diversity - but the average working stiff doesn't c ...[text shortened]... Roe and don't lost a SINGLE net vote! But whatever. It is what it is.
The rest makes sense.
😆
"The base didn't cross over to Trump, they just weren't motivated to come out."
In fact some did cross over. Blacks and Latinos have been focused on but there is no reason to make those distinctions. More people switched their vote to Trump than switched from Trump.
But other than that I think you summed it up pretty well. Nice job introspecting there.
I would add that so much of the Dem's discussion in the aftermath has been focused on trying to understand what happened in terms of race and gender groups that they seemed to have missed the great whooshing change in the class makeup of the two parties. For the most part the GOP has reformed into a multiracial, populist, anti-war, working class party, i.e. everything the Democrats used to aspire to be but which are now the opposite of. One would think the spectacle of Kamala touting the Cheney warmonger endorsement would create enough cognitive dissonance to alert Dems that something had gone amiss, but instead they are spending all their energy counting how may white women, or black men, or whatever other meaningless division of people the Dems think they own are traitors or something, and it's all going right over their heads.
@Sleepyguy saidTwo facts that really paint the picture:
I think you're pretty close. I'd quibble with this:
"The base didn't cross over to Trump, they just weren't motivated to come out."
In fact some did cross over. Blacks and Latinos have been focused on but there is no reason to make those distinctions. More people switched their vote to Trump than switched from Trump.
But other than that I think you summed it up pr ...[text shortened]... eople the Dems think they own are traitors or something, and it's all going right over their heads.
1. Trump was able to co-opt lifelong traditionally partisan Democrats such as Tulsi Gabbard and RFK Jr. I have big problems with both of them, but that Trump had room for them, and that today's Dems obviously did not, speaks volumes.
2. Trump went on Rogan (himself a lifelong liberal, by the way) for 2.5 hours, while Kamala, who was offered the same opportunity, refused to do so because of the feared backlash from the far left (this was leaked on X by a Kalama staffer and is almost certainly true).
This is what Nate Silver was talking about when he said that the Right doesn't require you to agree with them on everything. No1 derided that idea by correctly pointing out that Trump doesn't brook dissent, but from a philosophical perspective, the Republican party is much more big tent than the Democratic party is.
It's a bitter pill for Dems to swallow since Dems are supposed to be the haven for the little guy, but that's just not where the Dem party is holding today. Today, as long as you don't toe the line on full woke, the Left generally considers you a right wing nut job.