17 Jan 22
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-trial-worlds-first-finds-4th-dose-not-good-enough-against-omicron/
“We see an increase in antibodies, higher than after the third dose,” Regev-Yochay said. “However, we see many infected with Omicron who received the fourth dose. Granted, a bit less than in the control group, but still a lot of infections,” she added.
--------------------
Our technology is failing us.
@earl-of-trumps saidInfection is a stupid endpoint against which to measure the effectiveness of vaccines.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-trial-worlds-first-finds-4th-dose-not-good-enough-against-omicron/
“We see an increase in antibodies, higher than after the third dose,” Regev-Yochay said. “However, we see many infected with Omicron who received the fourth dose. Granted, a bit less than in the control group, but still a lot of infections,” she added.
--------------------
Our technology is failing us.
These are respiratory infections that can live in the nasal passages and is super contagious when expelled and inhaled (especially Omicron). the idea that bloodborne antibodies were going to sterilize this thing was never realistic.
A better endpoint is serious illness or death.
19 Jan 22
@sh76 saidThat depends on what you mean by "effectiveness". It is not effective at preventing getting infected and infecting others. It does not reduce the spread.
Infection is a stupid endpoint against which to measure the effectiveness of vaccines.
These are respiratory infections that can live in the nasal passages and is super contagious when expelled and inhaled (especially Omicron). the idea that bloodborne antibodies were going to sterilize this thing was never realistic.
A better endpoint is serious illness or death.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/29/who-warns-vaccine-resistant-covid-variants-could-emerge-amid-pandemic.html
Eventually the effectiveness of gene vaccines will decline over time and become useless against the new variants.
@sh76 saidHow about something akin to the flu shot. you take it and forget'aboudit.
Infection is a stupid endpoint against which to measure the effectiveness of vaccines.
These are respiratory infections that can live in the nasal passages and is super contagious when expelled and inhaled (especially Omicron). the idea that bloodborne antibodies were going to sterilize this thing was never realistic.
A better endpoint is serious illness or death.
we ain't even close to that
19 Jan 22
@earl-of-trumps saidSpain’s opted for that.
How about something akin to the flu shot. you take it and forget'aboudit.
we ain't even close to that
The spread of omicron is incredibly fastz very fascinating. However, as luck would have it, it’s far less serious. And people who are vaccinated are not ending up in hospital at all (well, next to none).
I would say: tread a bit more carefully than opting like Spain. Let’s first see where this is going. If the next mutation is similar (leaning towards spreading rather than killing) or not here by May, then it’s time to open up society completely (like with flu).
We could basically open up now. On one condition: if you’re not vaccinated you don’t get hospital treatment and you can die on the streets like a dog; own stupid fault.
Most people disagree with me on that last point though. Those rotting bodies attract rats, and nobody wants rats.
19 Jan 22
@shavixmir - "The spread of omicron is incredibly fastz very fascinating. However, as luck would have it, it’s far less serious. And people who are vaccinated are not ending up in hospital at all (well, next to none)."
---------
You're kidding, right? people are going to the hospital in record numbers because the current vaccinations do little to stop omicron. Omicron is weak, thank god, but current vax's do not have us prepared
19 Jan 22
@earl-of-trumps saidUh, no.
@shavixmir - "The spread of omicron is incredibly fastz very fascinating. However, as luck would have it, it’s far less serious. And people who are vaccinated are not ending up in hospital at all (well, next to none)."
---------
You're kidding, right? people are going to the hospital in record numbers because the current vaccinations do little to stop omicron. Omicron is weak, thank god, but current vax's do not have us prepared
The virus is spreading and the vaccinations are doing little to stop people getting infected. However, the people who are ending up in hospital are the unvaccinated and those without a booster.
Very few people with a booster are getting hospitalised.
19 Jan 22
@earl-of-trumps saidSounds about right to me.
How about something akin to the flu shot. you take it and forget'aboudit.
we ain't even close to that
Take the shot and forget'aboudit is the only viable strategy in the Omicron era (unless you're highly vulnerable, in which case you may want to wear N95s and stay home as much as possible every year from December to mid-February forever). More and more people are facing this reality, but the "DO SOMETHING" psyche of COVID policy takes a little time to overcome.
19 Jan 22
@shavixmir said===Let’s first see where this is going. If the next mutation is similar (leaning towards spreading rather than killing) or not here by May, then it’s time to open up society completely (like with flu).===
Spain’s opted for that.
The spread of omicron is incredibly fastz very fascinating. However, as luck would have it, it’s far less serious. And people who are vaccinated are not ending up in hospital at all (well, next to none).
I would say: tread a bit more carefully than opting like Spain. Let’s first see where this is going. If the next mutation is similar (leaning ...[text shortened]... isagree with me on that last point though. Those rotting bodies attract rats, and nobody wants rats.
The Omicron wave will be gone in most places in the next 4-6 weeks. Why wait until May?
19 Jan 22
@sh76 saidYou want to see if the next mutation follows suit, or if it's gonna be something far nastier.
===Let’s first see where this is going. If the next mutation is similar (leaning towards spreading rather than killing) or not here by May, then it’s time to open up society completely (like with flu).===
The Omicron wave will be gone in most places in the next 4-6 weeks. Why wait until May?
19 Jan 22
@shavixmir saidOkay, but what does that have to do with opening up? If a worse variant comes down the pike, we'll have to deal with it then, but whether we live our lives now won't have any impact on that. Staying inside in March isn't going to make the next variant any more or less dangerous.
You want to see if the next mutation follows suit, or if it's gonna be something far nastier.
19 Jan 22
@sh76 saidSituational control. Public management. Basically.
Okay, but what does that have to do with opening up? If a worse variant comes down the pike, we'll have to deal with it then, but whether we live our lives now won't have any impact on that. Staying inside in March isn't going to make the next variant any more or less dangerous.
If you open up, then it will be nigh on impossible to lock back down if needed.
I'm not saying there shouldn't be an opening up. Just not fully, so it's easier to take a step back if the need arises in the short term. And May is quite short term.
It's also managable: you supply a deadline which is within the scope of comprehension for the vast majority, and you state that if no new evil coughs its self out of the currect mutations, then that is the date we'll open completely.
May also gives the world enough time to actually see if a new, worse version, has materialised (with the current mutation rate being roughly every 6 months; although there are more mutations, most are not significant in any way).
So, May is the best of both worlds: realistic and playing quite safe.
19 Jan 22
2 edits
@shavixmir saidOkay, fair enough.
Situational control. Public management. Basically.
If you open up, then it will be nigh on impossible to lock back down if needed.
I'm not saying there shouldn't be an opening up. Just not fully, so it's easier to take a step back if the need arises in the short term. And May is quite short term.
It's also managable: you supply a deadline which is within the scope o ...[text shortened]... t significant in any way).
So, May is the best of both worlds: realistic and playing quite safe.
Personally, I think that he emergence of a variant that evades the enormous amount of the combined vaccine/Omicron/Delta immunity now being visited on us is unlikely. I'm not saying there won't be variants (there will), but are they going to be deadly and evade our immunity to the point that they wreak Delta-level havoc? I think that's unlikely to the point of being not really necessary to plan around.
19 Jan 22
@sh76 saidPersonally, I think it’s unlikely as well.
Okay, fair enough.
Personally, I think that he emergence of a variant that evades the enormous amount of the combined vaccine/Omicron/Delta immunity now being visited on us is unlikely. I'm not saying there won't be variants (there will), but are they going to be deadly and evade our immunity to the point that they wreak Delta-level havoc? I think that's unlikely to the point of being not really necessary to plan around.
Killing the host isn’t the best option for a virus, so if it’s mutating to spread rather than kill, it could well be the way it’s evolving (mutations are just evolution).
But why not play it safe? 3 more months on top of what we’ve been through? Just to be a bit on the safe side.
It’s what I would advocate. Longer might not be realistic, shorter is taking, in my honest opinion, an needed risk and makes adjustments much harder.
19 Jan 22
@shavixmir saidDepends what you mean by "safe." Wearing masks in supermarkets? Fine. Making children mask for 8 hours a day in school (or worse, closing schools) and/or closing down restaurants and entertainment venues? Travel restrictions that don't do much to slow the spread in any case? Not worth it, IMO.
Personally, I think it’s unlikely as well.
Killing the host isn’t the best option for a virus, so if it’s mutating to spread rather than kill, it could well be the way it’s evolving (mutations are just evolution).
But why not play it safe? 3 more months on top of what we’ve been through? Just to be a bit on the safe side.
It’s what I would advocate. Longer might not ...[text shortened]... ealistic, shorter is taking, in my honest opinion, an needed risk and makes adjustments much harder.