I just saw the results of the by-election in Hartlepool. Unsurprisingly the Lib Dems made massive gains against Labour (who still held the seat), but the Tory vote crumbled to 4th place, with more voting for UKIP than the Conservatives. Since 1945 this is the first time the Conservatives have come worse than 2nd in Hartlepool, but it's a familiar story that's played out in all the recent by-elections. Can anyone tell me how many seats they've gained since 1992, or even improved their ranking?
So, I ask: what do you think the future holds for the Tories?
Tories have been very critical of other right-wing parties. They've led the charge against the BNP (rightfully so.)
But one thing I can't get out of my head:
Iain Duncan Smith, by my understanding, was elected by registered Tories in the country.
It was the first time they had tried what was what we call a primary.
But IDS was undercut by politicians in Westminster who wanted to be the ones who pick the Tory leader. So they undercut the vote and put in Michael Howard.
What gets lost in all of this is that IDS has begun his campain for PM from the outset. He ended every PMQ session (at least his set) with "this is why the British People cannot trust him anymore." This is the theme that Howard has attempted (and failed miserably) to use as his own. Yet IDS was undercut by those inside Westminster, giving the impression that they do not trust their own voters.
The Tories are in shambles, and I have a strong amount of skepticism over his ability to gain seats in the spring. And I wonder if they'll overturn their own party members again in the future.
Originally posted by AcolyteThey realy are in a shambles and I'm not sure why.
I just saw the results of the by-election in Hartlepool. Unsurprisingly the Lib Dems made massive gains against Labour (who still held the seat), but the Tory vote crumbled to 4th place, with more voting for UKIP than the Conservatives. Since 1945 this is the first time the Conservatives have come worse than 2nd in Hartlepool, but it's a familiar story th ...[text shortened]... or even improved their ranking?
So, I ask: what do you think the future holds for the Tories?
A temporary dip in popularity after 15 (?) years in power is to be expected, but I thought they would spring back when people got tired of New Labour. It seems that people are getting tired of them, but not returning to vote Tory.
Still, they're still second party overall, and unless Lib Dems make huge gains, they will remain so, I think.
The average age of tory party members is well into the 60s, as I understand it. They're clearly not attracting young people, which suggests a rapid fall on membership as their current membership pops off.
Also, their losing corporate and media support. Many rich backers are now funding the UKIP. Even the Mail recently said their support for the tories wasn't guaranteed.
Compare this with the labour party in 80s and early 90s. Thatcher had been in power for ever. There was no prospect of labour getting elected, and internal political battles were everywhere. The difference, though, was that people were still joining the labour party then, particularly young people.
My point is that I think the age profile of the tory party is a key indicator that their decline is terminal.
Originally posted by VargOn a broad sampling of my friends and people I meet, people my age (around 27 - 35) HATE the Tories. Still. By a significant percentage. Remember how happy you were when Portillo lost his seat?
They realy are in a shambles and I'm not sure why.
A temporary dip in popularity after 15 (?) years in power is to be expected, but I thought they would spring back when people got tired of New Labour. It seems that people are getting tired of them, but not returning to vote Tory.
It will take some time for the utter shambles of the last conservative administration to be forgotten, and the Tories seem to have forgotten how to communicate with anyone outside their blue rinse base. With a bit of luck they will fade into insignificance - sadly the Telegraph and Mail are not going to do the same.
Originally posted by AcolyteThe Tory's are up poop-creak without a paddle.
I just saw the results of the by-election in Hartlepool. Unsurprisingly the Lib Dems made massive gains against Labour (who still held the seat), but the Tory vote crumbled to 4th place, with more voting for UKIP than the Conservatives. Since 1945 this is the first time the Conservatives have come worse than 2nd in Hartlepool, but it's a familiar story th ...[text shortened]... or even improved their ranking?
So, I ask: what do you think the future holds for the Tories?
Tory Bliar has stolen their policies and they've got nowhere to go but even further to the right, and that won't win them any votes.
They screwed up big time after Thatcher, keeping the right wing element of their party in power. Instead of going for the slightly more moderate approach (Heseltine or Clarke), they went for characters like Major (and there's a colourful character if ever there was one), baby face and that other guy who's name no one remembers.
Basically the right were pissed off that the left (do the tories actually have a 'left'? What I mean is the left compared to their right, I guess) stabbed Thatcher in her evil and twisted back and they've never been forgiven.
Now they're stuck on a loosing streak with classical bad-guys like Howard stating with pride: 'The return of the great John Redwood.'
Yup. It's so sad, I think I need a hanky.
Originally posted by shavixmirThat's John Redwood, the man with so much personality he couldn't even beat John Major in a leadership contest.
The Tory's are up poop-creak without a paddle.
Tory Bliar has stolen their policies and they've got nowhere to go but even further to the right, and that won't win them any votes.
They screwed up big time after Thatcher, keeping the right wing element of their party in power. Instead of going for the slightly more moderate approach (Heseltine or ...[text shortened]... pride: 'The return of the great John Redwood.'
Yup. It's so sad, I think I need a hanky.
Popular opinion is that Heseltine or Clarke were more popular with the electorate (whether that is true or just newspaper hype), and, like them or not, certainly had more personality than Major, the bald one or the other bald one.
For some reason the party chose a succesion of nobodies instead of these (likely) vote-winners.
They have no-one to blame but themselves.
Originally posted by VargDid you ever see the Paxman interview with Howard?
That's John Redwood, the man with so much personality he couldn't even beat John Major in a leadership contest.
Popular opinion is that Heseltine or Clarke were more popular with the electorate (whether that is true or just newspaper hype), and, like them or not, certainly had more personality than Major, the bald one or the other bald one.
For some reaso ...[text shortened]... n of nobodies instead of these (likely) vote-winners.
They have no-one to blame but themselves.
That was classic!
Originally posted by shavixmirYes, a classic for sure.
Did you ever see the Paxman interview with Howard?
That was classic!
I also recall one of him with Ken Clarke where Clarke was shaking his head, wagging his finger, going "no no no" - totally patronising.
I think they had a body language expert analyse it later. He came across as totally arrogant.
Originally posted by VargYou need an expert to tell you Ken Clarke is arrogant?
Yes, a classic for sure.
I also recall one of him with Ken Clarke where Clarke was shaking his head, wagging his finger, going "no no no" - totally patronising.
I think they had a body language expert analyse it later. He came across as totally arrogant.
Originally posted by stammerWhen Hague made his speech at the tory conference when he was (I think) 16 he looked about 45!! So I think the answer is no. The tories are finished I think - thank goodness.
Question:
If Hague was still the man at the helm would the Tories have a better shot at attracting younger members?
the tories were wiped out in scotland in 1997 and have only made a small recovery up here since then. their biggest mistake was not making ken clarke leader in 1997, with him being a politician who polls much better than his party.
as has been said the tories cant go anywhere because bliar has stolen all the tory clothes. in addition their support for the iraq situation means that only the lib dems/snp or plaid cymru can gain votes at labours expense.
the tories best chance of improving is when blair goes.
The tories must be wetting themselves with glee.
Basically, "New Labour" has implemented the Conservatives policies for them...and gone even further than the tories ever dared!
e.g. Scrapping Student Loans, impelementing PPP across the board, ass-licking the most right-wing US president of all time, Forcing out the director general of the BBC for being too left wing, letting Accountancy firms off the hook for fraud, allowing pension scheme pillaging to continue without recourse, etc, etc, ad nauseum.
All the time that Blair is making tories and their friends richer with his policies, they sit quietly in "opposition" whilst waiting to pick up the pieces when the electorate finally get fed up with being fleeced.
If a Tory gets too bored with this lucrative, easy, low risk opposition task, then they simply get on the phone to Tone, join "Spew Labour" and get parachuted into a safe seat!!!
Originally posted by AcolyteThey have the same chance as a mouse against a starving leopord.
I just saw the results of the by-election in Hartlepool. Unsurprisingly the Lib Dems made massive gains against Labour (who still held the seat), but the Tory vote crumbled to 4th place, with more voting for UKIP than the Conservatives. Since 1945 this is the first time the Conservatives have come worse than 2nd in Hartlepool, but it's a familiar story th ...[text shortened]... or even improved their ranking?
So, I ask: what do you think the future holds for the Tories?
Because. They are tied into the nineteenth and early twentieth century acceptance and expectation of "class" that the brittish system has yet to repeal.
As you know, as long as the caste system rules Brittain, there will always be hopes for the torries.
Those born to rule... will rule.
So, when will you Brits wake up?
That is the question we americans have been asking (seriously) for a couple hundred years.
Correct me if i'm wrong. Even the Labour party still issues seats to their meetings based on class. ie, which political division they represent.
This is cast off as being able to get state owned tv the ability to garner shots of entire groups during speaches. But is it something more?
I'll take the american seating. Who knows from crap... who belongs to what class or caste?
Notice next time.
Mike