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catfoodtim

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Amaurote
No Name Maddox

County Doledrum

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For all the talk of Labour's shallow electoral base, the Tories are basing their campaign on exactly the same premise - and while the media is constantly harping on the alleged lead David Cameron enjoys amongst prospective voters when given a choice between himself and the Chancellor, it's worth remembering that Gordon Brown enjoys a 27-point lead over him when it comes to the tiny group of swing voters who will actually decide the next general election.

If the Tories fail to win an outright majority (I suspect we're heading for either a minority Labour government or a hung parliament), it's hard to see how Cameron's authority wouldn't be eroded if Gordon Brown hung on - after two election defeats in the 80s, Labour moved onto its Neil Kinnock phase and then into its Blair phase...three defeats later, the Tories are still stuck in their Kinnock phase. If they don't get their act together soon, it's curtains.

catfoodtim

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R
Godless Commie

Glasgow

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Originally posted by catfoodtim
I think you're right about a minority government or coalition.

Could PR be back on the agenda, as a damage limitation exercise?

Edit: Forget that, no chance. It would take too much pride swallowing.
Electorally, the Labour party is on shaky ground.

There is the prospect of Scotland being out of the UK by the next again UK elections, so labour would be 40 or so seats down.

I don't know when the labour party last got more votes than the tories in England alone.

Maybe, if they're smart, they'll go for PR.

m

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These days, votes are going for people, not policies. I'd stick Alan Johnson instead of that old fart Thatcherite Brown.

p

Isle of Skye

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Originally posted by Redmike
Electorally, the Labour party is on shaky ground.

There is the prospect of Scotland being out of the UK by the next again UK elections, so labour would be 40 or so seats down.

I don't know when the labour party last got more votes than the tories in England alone.

Maybe, if they're smart, they'll go for PR.
The day Scotland is out of the UK is the day I move to England, which will then almost certainly enjoy near permanent Conservative government. However, I believe Scotland would greatly rue the day of its independence should there ever be such a day. I will still be too young to vote at the next Scottish election, but were I voting, I would feel a strong urge to vote Labour just to keep out the SNP.

Amaurote
No Name Maddox

County Doledrum

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Originally posted by princeoforange
The day Scotland is out of the UK is the day I move to England, which will then almost certainly enjoy near permanent Conservative government.
Scotland effectively voted Tory in 1924. Labour then formed its first government in Westminster - the idea that Scotland is necessarily somehow some vast socialist counterweight to Home County Conservative clubs is actually just an indication of the defeatism of the Tories south of the border, although to be frank I tend to think Scotland has often acted as the conscience of the UK over the last twenty years, and I'm actually looking forward to seeing a Maxtonian like Gordon Brown taking the helm - not that I have any illusions about his alleged socialism.

When Scotland does eventually become independent, the geopolitical landscape will change with it, so as a (lukewarm) Labour voter I'm not particularly worried about the bogey of permanent Conservative government...Ivor Crewe was drawing the same pessimistic conclusions in the 80s before the election of Labour in 199, and the erosion of predictable, tribal electoral patterns out-foxed him: the awful reality of near-permanent Conservative government is precisely what will drive the electorate to the left, just as it did in the late 90s.

p

Isle of Skye

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Originally posted by Amaurote
The idea that Scotland is necessarily somehow some vast socialist counterweight to Home County Conservative clubs is actually just an indication of the defeatism of the Tories south of the border
Despite the fact that in the last who knows how many General Elections the Conservatives had a majority in England and were only defeated by socialist Scotland and Wales? Even in 1997 the Tories won in England.

Amaurote
No Name Maddox

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Originally posted by princeoforange
Despite the fact that in the last who knows how many General Elections the Conservatives had a majority in England and were only defeated by socialist Scotland and Wales? Even in 1997 the Tories won in England.
I repeat for emphasis: the idea that Scotland is necessarily somehow some vast socialist counterweight to Home County Conservative clubs is an indication of the defeatism of the Tories south of the border. Until the 50s, Scotland was seen as a source of strength for the Conservative Party, not a weakness, and the kind of defeatism that permeates their current attitude to Scotland doesn't bode well for their attempts to regain power.

R
Godless Commie

Glasgow

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Originally posted by princeoforange
The day Scotland is out of the UK is the day I move to England, which will then almost certainly enjoy near permanent Conservative government. However, I believe Scotland would greatly rue the day of its independence should there ever be such a day. I will still be too young to vote at the next Scottish election, but were I voting, I would feel a strong urge to vote Labour just to keep out the SNP.
That would depend on whether you were registered to vote in Skye or Glasgow.

In Glasgow, the best unionist vote is probably labour, as you say. In the fptp vote at least. Not so sure about Skye.

But then, you're completely wasting your list vote if you give it to the labour party in Glasgow. You could safely give this to the Tories.

Many prominent celebs said they'd leave the UK if labour got elected. None did.

p

Isle of Skye

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Originally posted by Redmike
That would depend on whether you were registered to vote in Skye or Glasgow.

In Glasgow, the best unionist vote is probably labour, as you say. In the fptp vote at least. Not so sure about Skye.

But then, you're completely wasting your list vote if you give it to the labour party in Glasgow. You could safely give this to the Tories.

Many prominent celebs said they'd leave the UK if labour got elected. None did.
In all likelyhood I would be registered to vote in both places if I was 18+!! However I would probably be voting in Glasgow, in which case I would probably vote Conserative on the second vote (although my support for the Tories is waning fast under Cameron) and not bother with the first vote at all. In Skye I would do largely the same thing, first vote is no contest there too, only its a safe Lib Dem seat, which is even worse than Labour.

P

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Originally posted by princeoforange
In all likelyhood I would be registered to vote in both places if I was 18+!! However I would probably be voting in Glasgow, in which case I would probably vote Conserative on the second vote (although my support for the Tories is waning fast under Cameron) and not bother with the first vote at all. In Skye I would do largely the same thing, first vote is no contest there too, only its a safe Lib Dem seat, which is even worse than Labour.
I share your predicament regarding voting for Cameron on his present showing.

ab

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Originally posted by Philodor
I share your predicament regarding voting for Cameron on his present showing.
What party is your current MP in?
Is it a marginal seat or fairly safe?

invigorate
Only 1 F in Uckfield

Buxted UK

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Originally posted by Redmike
Electorally, the Labour party is on shaky ground.

There is the prospect of Scotland being out of the UK by the next again UK elections, so labour would be 40 or so seats down.

I don't know when the labour party last got more votes than the tories in England alone.

Maybe, if they're smart, they'll go for PR.
I would love to see an independent Scotland. What we have now is a fudge that suits no one.

However I dont think that England would necessarily be tory for evermore. I would think that the Lib Dems and UKIP would make large inroads into the English Political landscape.

R
Godless Commie

Glasgow

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Originally posted by invigorate
I would love to see an independent Scotland. What we have now is a fudge that suits no one.

However I dont think that England would necessarily be tory for evermore. I would think that the Lib Dems and UKIP would make large inroads into the English Political landscape.
I think that might well be the case, with the Greens and the left (In their various forms in England & Wales) making some progress too.

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