Voter Id Laws

@teinosuke said
Where is your evidence that accommodations are made for illegal aliens? If they're not on the electoral register, how can they vote?

They are not necessarily illegal aliens. They are just political slaves from blue states paid to move to swing states and cast a democratic vote. They are moved into vacant section 8 housing, and poof...they are now a resident of the great state of Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, etc... We have a massive almost completely idle public transit terminal for this sole purpose. You can bet on election day those buses will be full! Everyone I know is watching this unfold in the very town I live in. The requirement for my state is you have to be a resident for a month ( some only have to be a resident by registration ). Pa was a major democratic upset in 2016 ( it hadn't gone red in 20 some years prior ) and it was a close race. They are throwing the full force of the democratic machine at it employing every dirty voting practice known to man to make sure that doesn't happen again.

Deplorable!

@ashiitaka said
Well, even if I (a Brexiteer) acknowledge that some Brexiteers had the incorrect motives for voting to leave, the EU is deeply flawed and there are plenty of reasonable criticisms of it. Accusations of xenophobia were undoubtedly accurate in some cases, but I think it is important to look at why people have an issue with free movement (while we are on that particular gripe ...[text shortened]... My own mother, who is not British or an EU citizen, had to go through the system like everyone else.

That's extraordinary - I must confess that even though I work in a university, I didn't know that you, as a British citizen, could lose your right to home fees through a fairly brief period of absence. Having said that, that is an injustice which had nothing to do with our membership of the EU, since it would have been straightforward simply to make either citizenship or residence the criterion for "home" status.

Of course, the real problem is that the British government has declined to fund higher education. Tuition fees are minimal in most of Europe by comparison.

I found it remarkable during the referendum that "freedom of movement" was such a huge issue, while "freedom of capital movement" was a non-issue. But it's the latter which essentially allows the wealthy to circumvent their duties as citizens (not surprisingly, the post-World-War-II era of extensive capital controls was the most economically stable in the history of Western Europe). If the EU really did view the rest of the world as threatening, it would have ensured that freedom of capital movement didn't extend beyond European borders.

I'm not sure what other "natural allies" we have left. The United States is corrupt, unstable, and unreliable. Canada, Australia and New Zealand are lightly populated and barely relevant on a global scale. Formerly reliable partners such as India are stumbling towards dictatorship. It seems a very lonely world out there right now.

@joe-shmo said
They are not necessarily illegal aliens. They are just political slaves from blue states paid to move to swing states and cast a democratic vote. They are moved into vacant section 8 housing, and poof...they are now a resident of the great state of Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, etc... We have a massive almost completely idle public transit terminal for this sole purpose. Y ...[text shortened]... ng every dirty voting practice known to man to make sure that doesn't happen again.

Deplorable!

Have you ever bothered to present a single shred of evidence to support this fantasy?

@no1marauder said
Have you ever bothered to present a single shred of evidence to support this fantasy?

"Sean Hannity said..."

That's good enough for them.

@joe-shmo said
According to Pew, the projection of White to Minority vote is going to be ≈ 2.

2 is much less than 6, and as such voter ID laws are much closer to doing nothing to the "racial power dynamic" democrats so desperately rely on.

I personally believe that the reason Dems don't want voter ID laws is obviously not because they think it will drastically disenfranchise minoriti ...[text shortened]... ersist ).


[1] https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/an-early-look-at-the-2020-electorate/

Your math is, as usual, particularly inept.

I'll use the figures you cited and show that based on voting patterns in the US, a substantial majority of those disenfranchised by voter ID laws would vote Democratic.

First, let's look at voting by race in 2016 Presidential election (this is giving you the benefit of the doubt; 2018 was the most recent election but it was such a Democratic blowout that if it is repeated these issues will make no difference in the result):

Whites: 37% HRC 57% Trump
Blacks: 89% HRC 8% Trump
Hispanics: 66% HRC 28% Trump
https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls

Allocating out the other/no answer caategory and doing some rounding to simplify, Democrats can expect to get 40% of the white vote, 90% of the black vote and 70% of the Hispanic vote if 2016 results are duplicated (a very pessimistic scenario for them).

Now the stats you cited:

Whites:
71% of Population [1]
65.3% Voter Turnout [2]
5% Without Confirmed ID [1]

Blacks:
12% of Population [1]
59.6% Voter Turnout [2]
13% Without Confirmed ID [1]

Hispanics:
11% of Population [1]
47.6% Voter Turnout [2]
10% Without Confirmed ID [1]

This 2.3% of the population are white voters without ID who would be expected to vote (.71*.653*.05). The same calculation for blacks yields of the population .9% black voters without ID who would be expected to vote (.12*.596*.13) and for hispanics .5.

Plugging in the 2016 election results by race:

Whites .92 D 1.38 R
Blacks .81 D .09 R
Hispanics .35 D .15 R

Total 2.08 D 1.62 R

So 56% of voters disenfranchised by voter ID laws would likely vote Democratic. This is why Republicans are so keen to put these laws into place.

@no1marauder said
Have you ever bothered to present a single shred of evidence to support this fantasy?

As far as I can tell, its a completely legal practice. So what is there to really talk about? Do you want me to start taking racial surveys at the local Walmart every election year vs non-election years?

This kind of fraud isn't new. If it hasn't been able to be addressed by now, it probably is unable to be addressed. I'm just mentioning it to say... I know what they are doing.

@no1marauder said
Your math is, as usual, particularly inept.

I'll use the figures you cited and show that based on voting patterns in the US, a substantial majority of those disenfranchised by voter ID laws would vote Democratic.

First, let's look at voting by race in 2016 Presidential election (this is giving you the benefit of the doubt; 2018 was the most recent election but it w ...[text shortened]... laws would likely vote Democratic. This is why Republicans are so keen to put these laws into place.

So 56% of voters disenfranchised by voter ID laws would likely vote Democratic. This is why Republicans are so keen to put these laws into place.

- no1marauder promulgating partisan hackery.

This is the problem: IDENTITY POLITICS.

It is dishonest to talk about the proportional results of R vs D as concrete and fixed before an election. There is that crystal ball again!

The ONLY thing you can say is that it effects voters with ( as of yet ) undetermined votes. Your argument that there is a 6% discrepancy is based on fallacious results of the "phony" election you are running.

You are seriously going to try and make the argument that it is about Democrat votes vs Republican votes? Its about a persons vote vs another persons vote. NEITHER of which is decided until election day!

I was trying to bring in what percentage of each race votes as a constant ( which in hindsight should be factored out - those numbers aren't constant over time either), and you decided to take it 10 steps further ( in a single step - mind you ) how they are going to vote?

@joe-shmo said
As far as I can tell, its a completely legal practice. So what is there to really talk about? Do you want me to start taking racial surveys at the local Walmart every election year vs non-election years?

This kind of fraud isn't new. If it hasn't been able to be addressed by now, it probably is unable to be addressed. I'm just mentioning it to say... I know what they are doing.

I'll take that as a "no".

@no1marauder said
I'll take that as a "no".

Who is going to investigate a legal form of voter "fraud"?

@joe-shmo said

So 56% of voters disenfranchised by voter ID laws would likely vote Democratic. This is why Republicans are so keen to put these laws into place.

- no1marauder promulgating partisan hackery.

This is the problem: IDENTITY POLITICS.

It is dishonest to talk about the proportional results of R vs D as concrete and fixed before an election. ...[text shortened]... you decided to take it 10 steps further ( in a single step - mind you ) how they are going to vote?

Actually these results have been fairly stable except that Republican support among Hispanics (and Asians) has steadily dropped. Here's the 2004 election exit polls which show little difference in voting patterns among whites and blacks from the 2016 results.

You seem to have given up making actual statistical arguments which is understandable given the fiasco of your numerous COVID related predictions using such dubious methods.

EDIT: Not much change in white and black voting patterns from 2000 either. https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2000

@joe-shmo said
Who is going to investigate a legal form of voter "fraud"?

Why would anyone investigate something that doesn't exist?

If it did exist, I'm sure Republicans would be anxious to present evidence of it for the same purely partisan reasons you are claiming its existence.

@no1marauder said
Actually these results have been fairly stable except that Republican support among Hispanics (and Asians) has steadily dropped. Here's the 2004 election exit polls which show little difference in voting patterns among whites and blacks from the 2016 results.

You seem to have given up making actual statistical arguments which is understandable given the fiasco of your numerous COVID related predictions using such dubious methods.

Can you create law of the people that says voter ID is unconstitutional because it disenfranchises political party "X" based on current voting patterns?

@no1marauder said
Why would anyone investigate something that doesn't exist?

If it did exist, I'm sure Republicans would be anxious to present evidence of it for the same purely partisan reasons you are claiming its existence.

Its LEGAL! What can you do, why even bother??? People are allowed to move freely within our country's borders whenever they wish to do so. If they just happen to move to swing states in just enough time such they may vote there...so be it!

@joe-shmo said
Can you create law of the people that says voter ID is unconstitutional because it disenfranchises political party "X" based on current voting patterns?

I never made any such claim so I'm at a loss as to where you invented this one.

Voter ID laws have generally been upheld by the courts. But just because the SCOTUS has ruled something allowable under the Constitution doesn't mean it is good public policy to deliberately disenfranchise millions of people who would otherwise vote for and to do so for obviously purely partisan reasons.

@joe-shmo said
Its LEGAL! What can you do, why even bother??? People are allowed to move freely within our country's borders whenever they wish to do so. If they just happen to move to swing states in just enough time such they may vote there...so be it!

Actually you claimed a nefarious conspiracy where Democrats financed such moves of POC into swing States.

If you wish to withdraw that ridiculous claim, be my guest. If not, present whatever evidence you have that it exists.