Why Now?

Allow me to put forth a couple of developments which might have contributed to the Russian decision, unjustified as it might be:

Political maneuvers in Ukraine which were hostile to the Russian minority there including a discriminatory language law against Russian which went into effect last month (https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/01/19/new-language-requirement-raises-concerns-ukraine) and a security law which granted a State agency "extraordinary surveillance powers and the ability to collect and store public and private information about individuals and institutions." (https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/10/08/ukraine-security-agency-reform-bill-risks-undermining-human-rights)

The US under Trump withdrawing from three arms control treaties, one of which limited medium ranged nuclear missiles. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/may/21/open-skies-us-russia-arms-treaty-trump-pulls-out

The West's cavalier rejection of the main points of the proposed Russia-West security treaty made in December 2021. https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790818/?lang=en

Putin has incessantly complained about the mistreatment of ethnic Russians in the Ukraine, the possibility of nuclear missiles being deployed in NATO countries and, of course, like his predecessors, including Yeltsin, about NATO expansion into Eastern Europe. Many posters here seem to think that these are all non-serious objections but how likely is it that the developments above played some or a key part in the decision to invade now?

@no1marauder said
Allow me to put forth a couple of developments which might have contributed to the Russian decision, unjustified as it might be:

Political maneuvers in Ukraine which were hostile to the Russian minority there including a discriminatory language law against Russian which went into effect last month (https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/01/19/new-language-requirement-raises-con ...[text shortened]... ow likely is it that the developments above played some or a key part in the decision to invade now?

@no1marauder said
Allow me to put forth a couple of developments which might have contributed to the Russian decision, unjustified as it might be:

Political maneuvers in Ukraine which were hostile to the Russian minority there including a discriminatory language law against Russian which went into effect last month (https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/01/19/new-language-requirement-raises-con ...[text shortened]... ow likely is it that the developments above played some or a key part in the decision to invade now?

@moonbus said
"Putin has incessantly complained about the mistreatment of ethnic Russians in the Ukraine." Putin ignores that Russia (the dominant power during the Soviet Union's period of hegemony) mistreated all manner of ethnic populations for decades. Russia is reaping the resentment it sowed in many eastern European former-Soviet Republics.

I agree that the slow expansion of NATO ...[text shortened]... o reason for Putin to invade Ukraine. Both sides could have negotiated new treaties in the meantime.

@no1marauder said
"Whataboutism" is a boring defense; do you find the actions taken by the Ukraine against Russian speakers and to implement a surveillance State (the latter supported by Western powers) - both condemned by Human Rights Watch - to be justified because "Russia did it, too"?

As far as I can determine, the arms control treaties scrapped by Trump were being observed though t ...[text shortened]... s on the part of the West to negotiate at all with Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union anyway.

@no1marauder said
"Whataboutism" is a boring defense; do you find the actions taken by the Ukraine against Russian speakers and to implement a surveillance State (the latter supported by Western powers) - both condemned by Human Rights Watch - to be justified because "Russia did it, too"?

As far as I can determine, the arms control treaties scrapped by Trump were being observed though t ...[text shortened]... s on the part of the West to negotiate at all with Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union anyway.

@moonbus said
No, I do not support criminalizing languages. Spain tried it, and many other nations have tried it. It invariably leads to resentment. Neither do I support police states: no one believes that Putin has invaded Ukraine to liberate Ukrainians from a tyrant, no one believes that if Russia installs a puppet govt in Ukraine, it will be anything but a police state, as in Belarus. ...[text shortened]... rrent invasion, even by Putin's perverse logic. Ukraine is not more Russian than Ireland is English.

@no1marauder said
Seems like a lot of posters here are convinced Putin is intent on, at the very least, bringing the entire past territory of the USSR under his control, if not marching to the English Channel.

But if that's his intent, why didn't he launch a full scale military assault on the Ukraine in 2014 when that country had violently overthrown a supposedly pro-Russian elected Pre ...[text shortened]... in the Crimea that year.

Putin's been in power since 2000 after all; what's he been waiting for?

@no1marauder said
Seems like a lot of posters here are convinced Putin is intent on, at the very least, bringing the entire past territory of the USSR under his control, if not marching to the English Channel.

But if that's his intent, why didn't he launch a full scale military assault on the Ukraine in 2014 when that country had violently overthrown a supposedly pro-Russian elected Pre ...[text shortened]... in the Crimea that year.

Putin's been in power since 2000 after all; what's he been waiting for?

@no1marauder said
That assumes a prolonged occupation of the entire country which I doubt Putin desires.

But get a defeated Ukraine to agree to the terms I outlined above and it's a win for Putin without the necessary costs of permanent military occupation.

@no1marauder said
Than I guess if Russia just seizes six counties in Ukraine with a majority Russian population it'll be OK.

@moonbus said
I do not understand how you would come to such a conclusion. That's what Russia did during and immediately after WWII; it was as unacceptable then as it is today. I'm just saying that the resentment former Soviet satellites bear against Russia did not come out of nowhere, and has nothing to do with recent NATO expansionism.

@no1marauder said
Allow me to put forth a couple of developments which might have contributed to the Russian decision, unjustified as it might be:

Political maneuvers in Ukraine which were hostile to the Russian minority there including a discriminatory language law against Russian which went into effect last month (https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/01/19/new-language-requirement-raises-con ...[text shortened]... ow likely is it that the developments above played some or a key part in the decision to invade now?

@kevcvs57 said
Haha you could just admit you were wrong about Russia invading Ukraine and stop trying to justify an autocrat waging war on a democracy that was never a threat to him other than being an example of what the Russians could be if they stood up to the oligarchs and Putin.

@kevcvs57 said
Haha you could just admit you were wrong about Russia invading Ukraine and stop trying to justify an autocrat waging war on a democracy that was never a threat to him other than being an example of what the Russians could be if they stood up to the oligarchs and Putin.