Originally posted by sonhouseBut how many people have you overheard conversations from during all these years?
So how's that for co-incidences! You take the population of the US add to the population of Israel and Palestine, what are the odds of kids attending the same school in Israel ending up almost in the same town in the US 10 years later?
Almost everyone has seemingly unlikely stories like that, right? What does that tell you? 🙂
Originally posted by PalynkaI guess it means these kind of co-incidences are more common than people think. I know about the 23 people in a room with common birthdays and such but what about the statistics on wider issues like those I mentioned?
But how many people have you overheard conversations from during all these years?
Almost everyone has seemingly unlikely stories like that, right? What does that tell you? 🙂
I know about the 6 degrees of separation or whatever you call it. How do you analyze these things statistically?
As counterintuitive as it may seem, these kind of things actually happen all the time - they just aren't caught usually. The number of people on earth makes it quite impossible to avoid such overlaps.
I've studied probability and statistics a bit, and as an example, a similiar situation:
Suppose two people play the card game "War" with two separate decks of cards, which have been shuffled.
In war, whoever has the higher card wins, and you can also make rules regarding which suit is ranked higher.
But what if both players pull the seven of clubs on the same turn?
You might say, "That's never going to happen, don't worry about it," but don't say it too loudly. As it turns out, at some time throughout the game, both players will pull identical cards about 63% of the time. What is interesting, is that this percentage is virtually the same - regardless of whether each deck has 52 or 1 million unique cards. (As the number of cards increases, the probability of both players pulling the same card at some point in the game approaches 1-1/e)
Back to the original topic, here's a very nice poem related to such situations. (You have to speak German.)
Augen in der Großstadt
Wenn du zur Arbeit gehst
am frühen Morgen,
wenn du am Bahnhof stehst
mit deinen Sorgen:
da zeigt die Stadt
dir asphaltglatt
im Menschentrichter
Millionen Gesichter:
Zwei fremde Augen, ein kurzer Blick,
die Braue, Pupillen, die Lider -
Was war das? vielleicht dein Lebensglück ...
vorbei, verweht, nie wieder.
Du gehst dein Leben lang
auf tausend Straßen;
du siehst auf deinem Gang,
die dich vergaßen.
Ein Auge winkt,
die Seele klingt;
du hast`s gefunden,
nur für Sekunden ...
Zwei fremde Augen, ein kurzer Blick,
die Braue, Pupillen, die Lider;
was war das? kein Mensch dreht die Zeit zurück ...
vorbei, verweht, nie wieder.
Du mußt auf deinem Gang
durch Städte wandern;
siehst einen Pulsschlag lang
den fremden andern.
Es kann ein Feind sein,
es kann ein Freund sein,
es kann im Kampfe dein
Genosse sein.
Er sieht hinüber
und zieht vorüber ...
Zwei fremde Augen, ein kurzer Blick,
die Braue, Pupillen, die Lider.
Was war das?
Von der großen Menschheit ein Stück!
Vorbei, verweht, nie wieder.
Kurt Tucholsky
Originally posted by sonhouseYou have to calculate 1-P(no coincidence,Person 1)*P(no coincidence,Person 2)*...*P(no coincidence,Person n)
I guess it means these kind of co-incidences are more common than people think. I know about the 23 people in a room with common birthdays and such but what about the statistics on wider issues like those I mentioned?
I know about the 6 degrees of separation or whatever you call it. How do you analyze these things statistically?
If the number of people n is small, the probability of coincidence goes up for each if it's something like 1/n or proportional to it. So the expression above would be close to 1. If the number of people in that product goes up then you're multiplying a lot of smaller than 1 numbers so the expression above is also large.
Originally posted by PalynkaThis is a true recount.
You have to calculate 1-P(no coincidence,Person 1)*P(no coincidence,Person 2)*...*P(no coincidence,Person n)
If the number of people n is small, the probability of coincidence goes up for each if it's something like 1/n or proportional to it. So the expression above would be close to 1. If the number of people in that product goes up then you're multiplying a lot of smaller than 1 numbers so the expression above is also large.
My uncle Colin, from Liverpool, went to work in South Africa. He hadn't been in touch with any classmates since leaving school - the days prior to computers - or during the language development. My uncle actually developed Cobal 45 and was listed as an inventor
http://www.wipo.int/pctdb/en/wo.jsp?WO=2010149949
He contracted around the world, to companies such as Jaguar UK, writing unique codes which enabled him to re-contract to go back as needed to re-entry codes that he had instilled from company to company.
He was contracted to diamond mines in South Africa, where he installed unique codes that only he had designed.
He was a successful man. However, what has all that got to do with this post?
He was a statistician of the highest of order. He told me one day of what occurred, and said it was nigh on impossible.
He was driving from Jo'burg to the Oranjemund Diamond mine he was contracted to.
He ran out of petrol/gas. He had been thinking, and not paying attention to his fuel guage.
It was hot, he was half way between a desert and towns, and all he could do was wait.
He heard engines, and cars going past. But no cars! This happened 4 or 5 times. Then he realised there was a minor bird, above him, immitating car engine noises.
He got lonely, and wondered if somebody would come.
A car came, and stopped.
It was his best friend from school in Liverpool he had spent years with, but had lost contact with when going to University.
I wonder the possibilities of that happening?
True story.
Anybody care to work out the possibilities of that occurance?
-m.
Originally posted by mikelomThe mistake is in looking at the event in isolation. Each coincidence given the two persons involved is highly unlikely. But you have to multiply that by every person you know in every situation they've been and almost everyone will know someone with whom something like that happened or even happened with themselves.
This is a true recount.
My uncle Colin, from Liverpool, went to work in South Africa. He hadn't been in touch with any classmates since leaving school - the days prior to computers - or during the language development. My uncle actually developed Cobal 45 and was listed as an inventor
http://www.wipo.int/pctdb/en/wo.jsp?WO=2010149949
He contracted a ...[text shortened]... pening?
True story.
Anybody care to work out the possibilities of that occurance?
-m.
"Statisticians of the highest order" often make errors when thinking about these things, let alone a random engineer. The Monty Hall problem's correct solution was met by a lot of anger by university professors in statistics who were wrong.
Originally posted by Sunburntmy old math teacher met his future wife in a math study group. they went on to construct equations to each other, solutions of which turned out to be hearts and such. they eventually graduated, married, taught math in the same town until retirement, and stayed happily married until my teacher died of old age a couple of years ago.
Way romantic guys!
Statistics! Woohooooo!
better?
Originally posted by PalynkaThat's so true. I'm messing with you. Ideas about destiny are for people who are all crazy-minded with infatuation and those who have "fallen" in love. I believe I've learned much better, so I agree with you.
True romance is not about fooling yourself with outdated notions of fate. It's about making the most out of today with your partner. 😏
I am not known for having a romantic side. I've been called "unromantic."
I see romance in other things and in my mind. I attach romance to things written down and artwork. Not reality.
I do enjoy a romantic dinner now and then, I will say.
Originally posted by wormwoodThis is an example of the ultimate cool download.
my old math teacher met his future wife in a math study group. they went on to construct equations to each other, solutions of which turned out to be hearts and such. they eventually graduated, married, taught math in the same town until retirement, and stayed happily married until my teacher died of old age a couple of years ago.
better?
- Joined
- 14 Mar 04
- Moves
- 186367
Originally posted by SunburntWhat...like a BBQ?
That's so true. I'm messing with you. Ideas about destiny are for people who are all crazy-minded with infatuation and those who have "fallen" in love. I believe I've learned much better, so I agree with you.
I am not known for having a romantic side. I've been called "unromantic."
I see romance in other things and in my mind. I attach romance to thin ...[text shortened]... down and artwork. Not reality.
I do enjoy a romantic dinner now and then, I will say.