Panspermia & Corona

@metal-brain said
You have not proven anything.

He also hasn't proven that you, Trump and Xi don't have weekly threesomes at your love shack in the Adirondacks. Random, unsupported, sensationalist, conspiracy theories do not need disproving.

The post that was quoted here has been removed

They don't need to - they have a minister of Propaganda to spread the slander and agitprop.

@humy said
They tested it and it wasn't flu. Do you now say it probably was flu? If so, how do you explain how according to tests its now C19?

You have not proven anything.

and I never claimed 'proof' but rather good reasons to think C19 probably didn't start in the US due to the complete absence of evidence that it probably did. -your new straw man?
You have yet ...[text shortened]... oven conspiracy theory unsupported by the evidence isn't valid evidence of why it probably happened.

Then maybe it was first noticed in China because they were the first to test for it. Has that ever occurred to you?

@humy said
Here below is some important lessons we can learn to prevent future epidemics getting out of control;

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-countries-coronavirus.html

Sadly, I don't believe most governments, including the US and UK governments, will learn or take heed of any of those lessons any time soon. They don't adapt their strategies or try to think more radically. ...[text shortened]... hose that ignore history are doomed to repeat it.
(not those exact words but words of that effect)

If the virus has really spread as quickly as our government officials claim we are all going to get it sooner or later anyway. They are not trying to stop people from getting it, they are trying to slow the pace of people getting it so it doesn't burden the medical system too much all at once.

We are all going to get it sooner or later. The only question is when.

@shallow-blue said
He also hasn't proven that you, Trump and Xi don't have weekly threesomes at your love shack in the Adirondacks. Random, unsupported, sensationalist, conspiracy theories do not need disproving.

It isn't a conspiracy theory. That is just one of many of lies from humy. Be a leader, not a follower.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/[WORD TOO LONG]

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3076334/[WORD TOO LONG]

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00548-w?fbclid=IwAR3PbUrOicRKyJ9VR-479gEX3rCodd1m0gczFypJCdQZcFx7N2V7YYp1RhU

@metal-brain said
If the virus has really spread as quickly as our government officials claim we are all going to get it sooner or later anyway.

So far I haven't personally haven't heard of any of my country's government officials claim "we are all going to get it sooner or later anyway" or words of that effect but, if anyone is stupid enough to either claim or think that (and it wouldn't surprise me if Trump does), that's simply false.
Many of us will not get it thanks to being smart enough to practice social distancing, only going out for food & bare essentials, always avoid crowds wherever possible, washing hands often, etc. That is exactly what I am doing right now and been doing for some time now and, although I know that doesn't guarantee no infection, it still will mean I probably won't be infected and, even if I do become infected despite practicing all those precautions, at least I will draw some small comfort I didn't do it to myself via my own stupidity.

The post that was quoted here has been removed

That is not what you claimed I thought before, "girl".

@humy said
So far I haven't personally haven't heard of any of my country's government officials claim "we are all going to get it sooner or later anyway" or words of that effect but, if anyone is stupid enough to either claim or think that (and it wouldn't surprise me if Trump does), that's simply false.
Many of us will not get it thanks to being smart enough to practice social distanci ...[text shortened]... precautions, at least I will draw some small comfort I didn't do it to myself via my own stupidity.

Apparently you do not accept the implications of exponential spread, plus you in denial of your own logic by applying double think.
First you argue with me that the virus spread was super fast and not here longer than you accept. Anything that spreads that fast despite a public awareness campaign is not stoppable in the long term. If it doesn't infect you this year it will infect you next year or the year after. The cat is out of the bag.

Give me the name of the person (besides Trump) that expressed his belief the virus will go away in the literal sense. We have no better chance of eradicating the flu. The fear of SARS2 alone may help reduce the numbers of the flu, but do you think we can eliminate it so there is no chance of getting the flu next year? If not, why would you think that about SARS2?

SARS2 isn't like other viruses. It is contagious before people even experience symptoms. That is why home tests are so important to get to the public. It would also give us a better idea of the real numbers. Guess who blocked their availability. The FDA.

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/why-home-coronavirus-test-kits-arent-hands-consumers-101019744--abc-news-topstories.html

Unless you find a way to become a hermit forever you are going to get it sooner or later. Government will not tell you that because they want to reduce the spread rate so hospitals are not overburdened all at once. If they told people the truth they would not live in fear anymore and it would spread too fast for the medical system to keep up.

The people are being lied to for their own good. You want a hospital bed available if you need it, right? It is NOT about keeping people from ever getting it. That ship has sailed. It is about preventing it from spreading too fast.

How many years do you think you can avoid getting it? Do you work?

@metal-brain said
Apparently you do not accept the implications of exponential spread, plus you in denial of your own logic by applying double think.
First you argue with me that the virus spread was super fast and not here longer than you accept. Anything that spreads that fast despite a public awareness campaign is not stoppable in the long term. If it doesn't infect you this year it w ...[text shortened]... ng it from spreading too fast.

How many years do you think you can avoid getting it? Do you work?

First you argue with me that the virus spread was super fast

I made no such argument.

If it doesn't infect you this year it will infect you next year or the year after.

What? After the current epidemic has gone? Or after a vaccine for it has been made and I have taken it?

Give me the name of the person (besides Trump) that expressed his belief the virus will go away in the literal sense.

Why? "go away" by when? I made no such claims.

If they told people the truth they would not live in fear anymore and it would spread too fast for the medical system to keep up.

you mean if people are told if they stupidly take no precautions so to give themselves greater risk of catching and dying of it this year rather than possibly next year they would stupidly choose take no precautions so they all catch it this year rather than possibly next year? You mean people would all choose to minimize their life expectancy? I have news for you; Most people, including myself, aren't as stupid as you and will choose to MAXimize rather than minimize their life expectancy.

How many years do you think you can avoid getting it?

Its perfectly plausible I never get it especially if I don't get in the next 3 years because that allows enough time for a vaccine for it to be developed which I will then gladly take assuming it is made available to me, which I think it probably would be as I am definitely in the higher risk group.

Do you work?

Only from home if you can call it "work" in the normal sense. I don't actually get paid for doing my kind of science research so I can only do it in my own time and expense and hopefully eventually for the benefit of humanity which, given I don't get paid, is the only motive that keeps me at it.

@metal-brain said
Then maybe it was first noticed in China because they were the first to test for it. Has that ever occurred to you?

How are they going to test for a disease no one knows exists? I think it was the South China Morning Post article about fault covid-19 tests that mentioned a SARS expert that noticed the similarity. The various testing procedures have been developed in the meantime.

@metal-brain said
Apparently you do not accept the implications of exponential spread, plus you in denial of your own logic by applying double think.
First you argue with me that the virus spread was super fast and not here longer than you accept. Anything that spreads that fast despite a public awareness campaign is not stoppable in the long term. If it doesn't infect you this year it w ...[text shortened]... ng it from spreading too fast.

How many years do you think you can avoid getting it? Do you work?

I agree with some of the things you're saying. You've correctly stated the purpose of the "flatten the curve" policy. In a business as usual scenario - no social distancing, no special effort to slow the spread of the disease - then somewhere around 70% to 80% of the population would be infected over a period of a few months leading to economic turmoil and something of the order of half a million deaths in the UK and a couple of million in the US.

The official position is that with social distancing not everyone will get the disease. It's not clear over what time scale they're talking. SARS-CoV-1 vanished after a few months, so it's not out of the question that SARS-CoV-2 will do the same, but unless that happens then you are right in the end most of the population will get the disease, with the bulk of cases being asymptomatic or mild, something of the order of 7% severe and 1% fatal.

With the current social distancing and universal semi-quarantine policy the rate of spread of the virus ought to be curtailed to the point that health systems can cope. Suppose, for the sake of picking a number, 10% of the population have the disease and most recover during the period of the disease control intervention. If the policy works perfectly then the virus will become locally extinct. If anyone still has it and is an asymptomatic case then we will see a resurgence of the disease. Here we run into a paradox, if more people have the disease now the end of the intervention is less likely to produce a resurgence of the disease as there'll be more "herd immunity" (I really dislike that term) so the virus' basic reproduction rate will be lower.

I think the UK is in line for stricter rules from tomorrow, they were warning it might happen today and the policy seems to be to give a 24 hour warning and then impose it. I'm guessing they'll be stopping building work in London as the Underground's still packed the whole time. I don't think you're right about the government lying about not everyone getting the disease, that wouldn't happen in a business as usual scenario, never mind with the current intervention.

@humy said

First you argue with me that the virus spread was super fast

I made no such argument.

If it doesn't infect you this year it will infect you next year or the year after.

What? After the current epidemic has gone? Or after a vaccine for it has been made and I have taken it?
[quote] Give me the name of the person (besides Trump) that expressed h ...[text shortened]... y for the benefit of humanity which, given I don't get paid, is the only motive that keeps me at it.

SARS2 is a lipid enveloped virus. It is very challenging to create a vaccine for that type of virus. Don't hold your breath.

Either it spread super fast or it has been in the USA for longer than you think. Which is it?

@deepthought said
I agree with some of the things you're saying. You've correctly stated the purpose of the "flatten the curve" policy. In a business as usual scenario - no social distancing, no special effort to slow the spread of the disease - then somewhere around 70% to 80% of the population would be infected over a period of a few months leading to economic turmoil and something of ...[text shortened]... ase, that wouldn't happen in a business as usual scenario, never mind with the current intervention.

I should have said mislead rather than lie. I don't think health officials are lying, but rather omitting the truth so people assume the efforts are to eliminate the disease. Eliminating the disease doesn't seem to be an option. Reports of a coming vaccine are overly optimistic. It may never happen. Ebola is another lipid enveloped virus. Where is the vaccine? Creating a vaccine for a lipid enveloped virus is very challenging.

@metal-brain said
It is very challenging to create a vaccine for that type of virus.

So what? It will either happen eventually or at least effective treatments will probably be made to make it less likely to kill the patient and, even if none of that is true, you would be a moron to deliberately catch it now rather than possibly later. Unlike you, we will choose to not be complete morons but instead choose to MAXimize our life-expectancy, thanks.

Either it spread super fast or it has been in the USA for longer than you think. Which is it?

Neither.

We are still waiting for you to show us your evidence that C19 was probably in the US much earlier than what the experts estimate...