Originally posted by PalynkaWell why don't you say I said magnitude 2 earthquakes have increased? Because I didn't say that... like I didn't say magnitude 7 earthquakes have increased. I said the largest of earthquakes have momentarily increased as happens in runs.
Ah, so the instability cherry picks the range of magnitudes?
Originally posted by KostenuikThey haven't, as far as I know. In fact, no magnitude that I know of that can have statistical relevance has. There is an average of 1 earthquake over magnitude 8 per year, so variations over a decade are not meaningful to interpret as trends. For earthquakes over 9 even less, obviously.
Well why don't you say I said magnitude 2 earthquakes have increased? Because I didn't say that... like I didn't say magnitude 7 earthquakes have increased. I said the largest of earthquakes have momentarily increased as happens in runs.
For other magnitudes variations across decades are more meaningful because they'll involve around 160 sample points for magnitude >7 and 1500>6, and so on. In none of these categories there seems to be any significant change.
The claim that Earth is unstable then clashes with the fact that other groupings have not changed. You have then to assume that instability leaves every other class unchanged (statistically speaking) except for over 8.5 earthquakes. No scientist that knows an inch about statistics would make that claim based on the meager data points that you are using.
Originally posted by PalynkaO.K. So if there is one over 8.5 per ten years and there has not been one for 39 years is it likely to make up for lost time in that class of earthquake? Including the 10 years added on statistically there should be around 4-5 earthquakes>8.5 happen in that time which is what happened.
They haven't, as far as I know. In fact, no magnitude that I know of that can have statistical relevance has. There is an average of 1 earthquake over magnitude 8 per year, so variations over a decade are not meaningful to interpret as trends. For earthquakes over 9 even less, obviously.
For other magnitudes variations across decades are more meaningful nch about statistics would make that claim based on the meager data points that you are using.
Originally posted by KostenuikA common fallacy, and Las Vegas thrives on it.
O.K. So if there is one over 8.5 per ten years and there has not been one for 39 years is it likely to make up for lost time in that class of earthquake? Including the 10 years added on statistically there should be around 4-5 earthquakes>8.5 happen in that time which is what happened.
Originally posted by KazetNagorraWell the problem is there isn't enough data for earthquakes>8.5 and the way you try and understand monkeys is by looking at pigs. It isn't my fault you can't be made to see reason and have to be an ignorant.
I am saying you suck at understanding statistics.
Originally posted by KostenuikMore like the way to understand the 10 largest pigs in recent history is by looking at the 0.05% top quantile of the distribution of pig sizes (which has a lot more than 10 data points).
Well the problem is there isn't enough data for earthquakes>8.5 and the way you try and understand monkeys is by looking at pigs. It isn't my fault you can't be made to see reason and have to be an ignorant.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/year/mag8/magnitude8_1900_date.php
So 1 point on the richter scale is equal to 31 times the size. this means 0.1 is equal to ~3 times, 0.2 6 times etc. So lets work out the earthquake energy in each decade where an 8.0 will be equal to 1, 8.1 3, 8.5 15, 9.0 30 etc.
Date - UTC - Time Latitude Longitude Magnitude Fatalities Region
1902/06/11 05: 50.00 148.00 8.0 Sea of Okhotsk -1
1903/01/04 05:07 -20.00 -175.00 8.0 Tonga -1
1903/08/11 04:32 36.36 22.97 8.3 southern Greece -9
1905/07/09 09:40 49.0 99.0 8.4 Mongolia -12
1905/07/23 02:46 49.0 98.0 8.4 central Mongolia -12
1906/01/31 15:36 1.0 -81.5 8.8 1000 Colombia-Ecuador -24
1906/08/17 00:40 -33.0 -72.0 8.2 3882 Valparaiso, Chile -6
1907/10/21 04:23 38.00 69.00 8.0 Afghanistan -1
1908/12/12 12:08 -14.0 -78.0 8.2 off the coast of central Peru -6
<72>
1911/06/15 14:26 28.0 130.0 8.1 12 Ryukyu Islands, Japan -3
1914/05/26 14:22 -2. 137. 8.0 West New Guinea - 1
1915/05/01 05:00 47. 155. 8.0 Kurile Islands -1
1917/05/01 18:26 -29.0 -177.0 8.0 Kermadec Islands, New Zealand -1
1917/06/26 05:49 -15.0 -173.0 8.4 Tonga -12
1918/08/15 12:18 5.653 123.563 8.0 50 Celebes Sea -1
1918/09/07 17:16 45.5 151.5 8.2 Kuril Islands -6
1919/04/30 07:17 -19.823 -172.215 8.2 Tonga region -6
<31>
1920/06/05 04:21 23.5 122.0 8.0 Taiwan region -1
1920/09/20 14:39 -20.0 168.0 8.0 Loyalty Islands -1
1922/11/11 04:32 -28.553 -70.755 8.5 Chile-Argentina Border -15
1923/02/03 16:01 54.0 161.0 8.5 Kamchatka -15
1924/04/14 16:20 7.023 125.954 8.3 Mindanao, Philippines -9
1928/06/17 03:19 16.33 -96.7 8.0 Oaxaca, Mexico -1
<42>
1931/08/10 21:18 47.1 89.8 8.0 5 northern Xinjiang, China -1
1932/06/03 10:36 19.84 -103.99 8.1 Jalisco, Mexico -3
1933/03/02 17:31 39.22 144.62 8.4 2990 Sanriku, Japan -12
1934/01/15 08:43 27.55 87.09 8.1 10700 Bihar, India -3
1938/02/01 19:04 -5.05 131.62 8.5 Banda Sea -15
1938/11/10 20:18 55.33 -158.37 8.2 Shumagin Islands, Alaska -6
1939/04/30 02:55 -10.5 158.5 8.0 Solomon Islands -1
<41>
1940/05/24 16:33 -10.5 -77.0 8.2 near the Coast of central Peru -6
1941/11/25 18:03 37.171 -18.960 8.2 Azores-Cape St. Vincent Ridge -6
1942/08/24 22:50 -15.0 -76.0 8.2 30 Off the coast of central Peru -6
1943/04/06 16:07 -30.75 -72.0 8.2 18 off the coast of Coquimbo, Chile -6
1944/12/07 04:35 33.75 136.00 8.1 1223 Tonankai, Japan -3
1945/11/27 21:57 24.5 63.0 8.0 4000 off the coast of Pakistan -1
1946/04/01 12:28 52.75 -163.50 8.1 165 Unimak Islands, Alaska -3
1946/08/04 17:51 19.25 -69.00 8.0 100 Dominican Republic -1
1946/12/20 19:19 32.5 134.5 8.1 1330 Nankaido, Japan -3
1948/01/24 17:46 10.5 122.0 8.2 72 Panay, Philippines -6
1949/08/22 04:01 53.62 -133.27 8.1 Queen Charlotte Island, B.C., Canada -3
<44>
1950/08/15 14:09 28.5 96.5 8.6 1526 Assam-Tibet -18
1952/03/04 01:22 42.5 143.0 8.1 31 Hokkaido, Japan region -3
1952/11/04 16:58 52.76 160.06 9.0 Kamchatka, Russia -30
1957/03/09 14:22 51.56 -175.39 8.6 Andreanof Islands, Alaska -18
1957/12/04 03:37 45.15 99.21 8.1 Gobi-Altai, Mongolia -3
1958/11/06 22:58 44.329 148.623 8.3 Kuril Islands -9
1959/05/04 07:15 53.351 159.645 8.2 1 near the east coast of Kamchatka -6
<87>
1960/05/22 19:11 -38.29 -73.05 9.5 1655 Chile -45
1963/10/13 05:17 44.9 149.6 8.5 Kuril Islands -15
1964/03/28 03:36 61.02 -147.65 9.2 125 Prince William Sound, Alaska -36
1965/02/04 05:01 51.21 -178.50 8.7 Rat Islands, Alaska -21
1966/10/17 21:41 -10.807 -78.684 8.1 125 near the coast of central Peru -3
1968/05/16 00:49 40.903 143.346 8.2 47 off the east coast of Honshu, Japan -6
1969/08/11 21:27 43.478 147.815 8.2 Kuril Islands -6
<132>
1970/07/31 17:08 -1.49 -72.56 8.0 Colombia -1
1971/01/10 07:17 -3.132 139.697 8.1 Papua, Indonesia -3
1974/10/03 14:21 -12.254 -77.524 8.1 78 near the coast of central Peru -3
1976/08/16 16:11 6.292 124.090 8.0 8000 Mindanao, Philippines -1
1977/06/22 12:08 -22.878 -175.900 8.1 Tonga region -3
1977/08/19 06:08 -11.085 118.464 8.3 100 south of Sumbawa, Indonesia -9
1979/12/12 07:59 1.598 -79.358 8.1 600 near the coast of Ecuador -3
<23>
1985/03/03 22:47 -33.135 -71.871 8.0 177 offshore Valparaiso, Chile -1
1985/09/19 13:17 18.190 -102.533 8.0 9500 Michoacan, Mexico -1
1986/05/07 22:47 51.520 -174.776 8.0 Andreanof Islands, Aleutian Islands, Alaska -1
1989/05/23 10:54 -52.341 160.568 8.1 Macquarie Island region -3
<6>
1994/06/09 00:33 -13.841 -67.553 8.2 5 La Paz, Bolivia -6
1994/10/04 13:22 43.773 147.321 8.3 11 Kuril Islands -9
1995/07/30 05:11 -23.340 -70.294 8.0 3 Near Coast of Northern Chile -1
1995/10/09 15:35 19.055 -104.205 8.0 49 Near Coast of Jalisco, Mexico -1
1996/02/17 05:59 -0.891 136.952 8.2 166 Irian Jaya region, Indonesia -6
1998/03/25 03:12 -62.877 149.527 8.1 Balleny Islands region -3
<26>
2000/11/16 04:54 -3.980 152.169 8.0 2 New Ireland region, Papua New Guinea -1
2001/06/23 20:33 -16.264 -73.641 8.4 75 near the coast of southern Peru -12
2003/09/25 19:50 41.815 143.910 8.3 Hokkaido, Japan region -9
2004/12/23 14:59 -49.312 161.345 8.1 north of Macquarie Island -3
2004/12/26 00:58 3.295 95.982 9.1 227898 off the west coast of northern Sumatra -33
2005/03/28 16:09 2.074 97.013 8.6 1313 Northern Sumatra, Indonesia -18
2006/05/03 15:26 -20.187 -174.123 8.0 Tonga -1
2006/11/15 11:14 46.592 153.226 8.3 Kuril Islands -9
2007/01/13 04:23:21 46.243 154.524 8.1 East of the Kuril Islands -3
2007/04/01 20:39:58 -8.466 157.043 8.1 34 Solomon Islands -3
2007/08/15 23:40:57 -13.386 -76.603 8.0 650 Near the Coast of Central Peru -1
2007/09/12 11:10:26 -4.438 101.367 8.5 25 Southern Sumatra, Indonesia -15
2009/09/29 17:48:10 -15.489 -172.095 8.1 192 Samoa Islands region -3
<109>
2010/02/27 06:34:14 -35.846 -72.719 8.8 577 Offshore Maule, Chile -24
2011/03/11 05:46:23 38.322 142.369 9.0 28050 Near the East Coast of Honshu, Japan -30
<54>
So.... decade/number/energy
1900 - 9 <72>
1910 - 8 <31>
1920 - 6 <42>
1930 - 7 <41>
1940 - 11 <44>
1950 - 7 <87>
1960 - 7 <132>
1970 - 7 <23>
1980 - 4 <6>
1990 - 6 <26>
2000 - 13 <109>
2010-2011 -2 <54>
Originally posted by KostenuikHow do you think this will address the outlier issue that I just mentioned?
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/year/mag8/magnitude8_1900_date.php
So 1 point on the richter scale is equal to 31 times the size. this means 0.1 is equal to ~3 times, 0.2 6 times etc. So lets work out the earthquake energy in each decade where an 8.0 will be equal to 1, 8.1 3, 8.5 15, 9.0 30 etc.
Date - UTC - Time Latitude Longitud ...[text shortened]... <132>
1970 - 7 <23>
1980 - 4 <6>
1990 - 6 <26>
2000 - 13 <109>
2010-2011 -2 <54>
Originally posted by KostenuikLogarithmic scales don't work like that. An earthquake of magnitude 8.5 actually releases about 5.6 times more energy than an 8.0 earthquake. For an 8.1 earthquake the factor is about 1.4.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/year/mag8/magnitude8_1900_date.php
So 1 point on the richter scale is equal to 31 times the size. this means 0.1 is equal to ~3 times, 0.2 6 times etc. So lets work out the earthquake energy in each decade where an 8.0 will be equal to 1, 8.1 3, 8.5 15, 9.0 30 etc.
Date - UTC - Time Latitude Longitud ...[text shortened]... <132>
1970 - 7 <23>
1980 - 4 <6>
1990 - 6 <26>
2000 - 13 <109>
2010-2011 -2 <54>
By the way, there are treatments available for paranoid/delusional disorders.
Originally posted by PalynkaWell you want to study the 0.05% of largest pigs, so shouldn't the largest of the large get more points in their favour? If 1 whole point is equal to 31.6 times the energy then it would take that many pigs at the lowest level to equal the top one.
How do you think this will address the outlier issue that I just mentioned?
Originally posted by KazetNagorraO.K. so I don't understand logarithmic scales, but they will make the smaller of the earthquakes have less of a value and the greater earthquakes have more of a value... making what I have printed up even more in favour of what I was showing... that the 60's and the begining of this century were a dangerous time for earthquakes. It will also make the period leading up to the 60's more mild and the period leading up to this century weaker... showing that earthquakes happen in runs building up from the clams that happen that arent really calms... but plates still in movement.
Logarithmic scales don't work like that. An earthquake of magnitude 8.5 actually releases about 5.6 times more energy than an 8.0 earthquake. For an 8.1 earthquake the factor is about 1.4.
By the way, there are treatments available for paranoid/delusional disorders.
btw... there are no pills for hate and jealousy. You have to do some work on your black heart.