01 Nov 11
Originally posted by sh76This isn't some statistical fluke; it's 574 plate appearances. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=berkmla01&year=Career&t=b
There is little significance to whether a player is hitting "with a man on second only." I'll bet if you looked hard enough you could find some number that would benefit Berkman. Maybe is was a Tuesday night with a full Moon when the temperature was between 60 and 70 degrees, in which scenarios Berkman hits .750 and Pujols .125.
Pujols is a better hitter tha ...[text shortened]... a guy with a 146 OPS+ any day of the week, although the latter is also an excellent number.
And what you seem to keep missing is that walking Pujols put the winning run on base. Berkman in his career got an extra base hit 71 times out of 496 ABs (574 PAs) which means you just gave yourself a 1 in 8 chance of losing the game on one swing of the bat. By contrast, even if you factor out the 133 intentional walks got in Pujol's 667 PA with a man on second, he has a 1 in 14 chance of hitting a HR and winning the game with one swing (38 HRs in 534 non-IB PAs).http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=pujolal01&year=Career&t=b
Your best chance of winning that game if you are the Rangers is pitching to Pujols. Of course, you don't throw a BP fastball down the middle of the plate; you PITCH to him.
01 Nov 11
Originally posted by no1marauderYou seem to forget that by pitching to Pujols, you stand the chance that if he gets a
This isn't some statistical fluke; it's 574 plate appearances. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=berkmla01&year=Career&t=b
And what you seem to keep missing is that walking Pujols put the winning run on base. Berkman in his career got an extra base hit 71 times out of 496 ABs (574 PAs) which means you just gave your ...[text shortened]... ls. Of course, you don't throw a BP fastball down the middle of the plate; you PITCH to him.
hit, even if it doesn't leave the park, it could be for extra bases.
If you don't pitch to Pujols, you have a decent chance of turning two on him.
If there is an extra base hit, he probably does not score from 1B unless the hit rolls to
the wall in the gap.
It was a smart move not to let him hit there.
01 Nov 11
Originally posted by shortcircuitThere was two out; you're NOT turning two and he's almost certainly scores from 1st on a double.
You seem to forget that by pitching to Pujols, you stand the chance that if he gets a
hit, even if it doesn't leave the park, it could be for extra bases.
If you don't pitch to Pujols, you have a decent chance of turning two on him.
If there is an extra base hit, he probably does not score from 1B unless the hit rolls to
the wall in the gap.
It was a smart move not to let him hit there.
02 Nov 11
Originally posted by no1marauderWith two outs it is even smarter still. Force out is fine, no need to turn two.
There was two out; you're NOT turning two and he's almost certainly scores from 1st on a double.
Albert was held up twice from first on doubles. He had a bad wheel.
If his wheels were good, then he scores from second on a single if he hits a double....or worse.
21 Nov 11
The greatest regular season game was a 13 inning pitcher's duel between Juan Marichal and Warren Spahn at Candlestick in the 60's. Giants won on a Willie Mays home run. BOTH pitchers went the distance. I was in attendance with my mother who insisted we leave after 12. I was in the parking lot when Mays hit the home run. Oh, well . . . sort of there. And hard to blame a mother who was willing to stay at Candlestick for 12 innnings. They once asked Drysdale about the term "quality start." Drysdale: "My idea of a quality start was going nine innings and winning." Ah, when men were men.