@sh76 said
1,000 deaths per week in the middle of the winter would be a mild (or at worst medium) flu season.
https://usafacts.org/articles/how-many-people-die-flu/
61,000 people died in the worst flu season of the past decade. COVID-19 has killed eight times that many.
Around 61,000 people died from influenza in the 2017-2018 flu season, the most in the last 10 years. Almost 529,000 people have died of COVID-19 as of mid-March.
Published on Fri, March 19, 2021 3:28PM PDT | Updated Thu, July 29, 2021 2:49PM PDT
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season.htm#anchor_1531424547919
While seasonal influenza (flu) viruses are detected year-round in the United States, flu viruses are most common during the fall and winter. The exact timing and duration of flu seasons varies, but influenza activity often begins to increase in October. Most of the time flu activity peaks between December and February, although significant activity can last as late as May.
The attached graph on the second link implies a four month season Dec-March
08 Feb 22
@athousandyoung saidI'll find the article again but if flu deaths were counted like COVID deaths i.e. they had to be listed as the cause of death on a death certificate a yearly total would usually be around 10,000.
61,000 deaths / (4 month*4 weeks/month)
61,000/16 = 3800 deaths per week in the USA in a very nasty flu season
Even if we add a few weeks for various corrections, 61,000/20 is 3000 deaths per week average
08 Feb 22
@no1marauder saidI noticed you dodged this…
I'll find the article again but if flu deaths were counted like COVID deaths i.e. they had to be listed as the cause of death on a death certificate a yearly total would usually be around 10,000.
“canyou cite any data showing anyone died from omicron only? or for that matter, covid only?”
@mott-the-hoople saidI'm not interested in rehashing conspiracy theory BS I already covered with MB.
I noticed you dodged this…
“canyou cite any data showing anyone died from omicron only? or for that matter, covid only?”
The data I get is compiled from death certificates which list the cause of death. I've seen nothing that leads me to believe they are, all of a sudden, making huge, systemic errors.
08 Feb 22
@no1marauder saidHere:
I'll find the article again but if flu deaths were counted like COVID deaths i.e. they had to be listed as the cause of death on a death certificate a yearly total would usually be around 10,000.
" In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620, which far lower than the numbers commonly repeated by public officials and even public health experts."
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/
08 Feb 22
1 edit
@no1marauder said
Here:
" In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620, which far lower than the numbers commonly repeated by public officials and even public health experts."
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/
In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths
I'd like to see a source for this i.e. where did the author get his numbers from?
Author:
Jeremy Samuel Faust, M.D., M.S., M.A., FACEP,
practices emergency medicine at Brigham & Women's Hospital, is an instructor at Harvard Medical School, and is president of the Roomful of Teeth Vocal Arts Project.
Sounds impressively legit
09 Feb 22
@athousandyoung saidI'm not sure; I can't find a CDC source giving confirmed flu deaths. However, the CDC admits it estimates rather than use death certificate data for flu fatalities:In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths
I'd like to see a source for this i.e. where did the author get his numbers from?
Author:
Jeremy Samuel Faust, M.D., M.S., M.A., FACEP,
practices emergency medicine at Brigham & Women's Hospital, is an instructor at Harvard Medical School, and is president of the Roomful of Teeth Vocal Arts Project.
Sounds impressively legit
"Why doesn’t CDC base its seasonal flu mortality estimates only on death certificates that specifically list influenza?
Seasonal influenza may lead to death from other causes, such as pneumonia, congestive heart failure, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. It has been recognized for many years that influenza is underreported on death certificates. There may be several reasons for underreporting, including that patients aren’t always tested for seasonal influenza virus infection, particularly older adults who are at greatest risk of seasonal influenza complications and death. Even if a patient is tested for influenza, influenza virus infection may not be identified because the influenza virus is only detectable for a limited number of days after infection and many people don’t seek medical care in this interval. Additionally, some deaths – particularly among those 65 years and older – are associated with secondary complications of influenza (including bacterial pneumonias). For these and other reasons, modeling strategies are commonly used to estimate flu-associated deaths. Only counting deaths where influenza was recorded on a death certificate would be a gross underestimation of influenza’s true impact."
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm#References
The same logic would presumably apply to COVID deaths, however, which might be why we see a sizeable gap between confirmed deaths from COVID and excess deaths during the pandemic in the US and other countries: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00104-8
For what it's worth, CDC estimates of flu deaths for this flu season from October 1, 2021 through January 29, 2022 are 1,200 to 3,500. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
That's a paltry number compared to COVID deaths which were about 183,000. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us
And if 13.4% of those deaths were among the vaccinated, it would suggest they have at least a 10 times and possibly 30 times higher chance of dying from COVID than the flu.