303d
@no1marauder saidNeither candidate thought the so called unvetted chaos at the border is make believe.
Also Pilip's ads were strongly focused on anti-immigration and the so-called "border crisis" (including the grainy video of a group of migrants fighting with police that has gone viral in right wing circles) which Republicans are relying on as their #1 issue.
It failed.
“It’s a very serious problem with people crossing our border in a very unvetted, chaotic fashion, and it needs to be addressed,” Suozzi said at a recent news conference focused on the issue. He assailed Pilip and other Republicans’ opposition to a bipartisan border deal that collapsed spectacularly in Congress: “Everyone agrees that this is the toughest and fairest set of reforms to secure the border that we’ve had in decades.”
303d
@wildgrass saidSince the Democrats aren't going to out prick Trump and the MAGAs in their hate towards immigrants, they should thank the stars that Republicans killed the "compromise". It would have surely split the Dem caucus and been seen as another betrayal by the young and progressives who the party need to come out in droves.
Neither candidate thought the so called unvetted chaos at the border is make believe.
“It’s a very serious problem with people crossing our border in a very unvetted, chaotic fashion, and it needs to be addressed,” Suozzi said at a recent news conference focused on the issue. He assailed Pilip and other Republicans’ opposition to a bipartisan border deal that collapsed s ...[text shortened]... hat this is the toughest and fairest set of reforms to secure the border that we’ve had in decades.”
302d
2 edits
@sh76 said538 doesn't agree with that analysis; before the election it said this:
I think it's mainly a Democratic seat that went Republican in a bizarre red wave that was limited to New York for some reason in 2022 and is now reverting to the mean. Also, you had a strong Democratic candidate and a nondescript Republican candidate that certainly helped.
Ultimately, November is going to come down to Trump vs. Biden. Everything else is small potatoes. And Co ...[text shortened]... em winning in Macomb County, Michigan or Luzerne County, PA, and Trump's got a problem on his hands.
"The seat has an Inside Elections Baseline — a measure of the average partisanship of congressional districts — of only D+5. Both parties have nominated strong candidates: Democrats chose former Rep. Tom Suozzi, who represented the district from 2017 to 2023 before leaving it to run for governor on a moderate, crime-focused platform. Meanwhile, Republicans have nominated Mazi Pilip, a Nassau County legislator who served in the Israeli Defense Forces and has put immigration at the forefront of her campaign. And the two most recent public polls of the race, from Siena College/Newsday and Emerson College/The Hill/WPIX-TV, both showed Suozzi in the lead by only 4 percentage points."
https://abcnews.go.com/538/election-replace-george-santos-competitive/story?id=107158179
After:
"While Suozzi looks to be en route to a 6-to-7 point victory, it's pretty clear he won among an electorate that had an unfavorable view of Biden: 57 percent of likely voters had an unfavorable view of the president in a Siena College/Newsday survey of the special election, but Suozzi led by 4 points, not too different from his actual win. And revealingly, nearly one-fourth of Suozzi's supporters had an unfavorable view of Biden. "
https://abcnews.go.com/538/live-updates/new-york-3rd-district-special-election-live-blog/?id=107208370
EDIT: BTW, in the 2022 Michigan Governor's race, Democrat Gretchen Whitmer beat Republican Tudor Dixon 51.8% to 46.6% in Macomb County. https://www.politico.com/2022-election/results/michigan/statewide-offices/
It's a shame she's not the Democrat running for President this year.
EDIT2: And Josh Shapiro (D) carried Luzerne County over Doug Mastriano (R) albeit by a close 49.7% to 48.4% in the 2022 Governor's race in PA.
So "Trump's got a problem on his hands".
- Joined
- 05 Nov 06
- Moves
- 147482
302d
@no1marauder saidhopefully he can speak spanish
In George Santos seat. Polls had said this would be a close one between Tom Suozzi (D) and Mazi Pilip (R) but instead Suozzi is up by more than 17 points with more than half the vote in. https://decisiondeskhq.com/special-election-results-new-york-3rd-congressional-district/
This continues the string of Democratic successes since 2022 where they are overachieving estimates in virtually every race.