03 Sep 12
Originally posted by KunsooThat isn't exactly true.
Rasmussen is reporting a bounce, but nobody else.
http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2012/09/03/13639689-dont-call-it-a-comeback?lite
The consensus is perhaps that it was a small bounce, but a bounce. It was not just Rasmussen.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/03/sept-2-split-verdict-in-polls-on-romney-convention-bounce/
03 Sep 12
I figure that convention bounces will be weak this year anyway.
1) There's so much media that people aren't learning new things at the conventions. In the old days, this was a chance for regular viewers to see the candidates. Now they're on the internet and cable constantly anyway.
2) There are generally fewer undecideds in this election than there normally are.
3) There has been very little movement in the polls in either direction in many months. This is not like 1992 when Clinton had a 24 points lead completely evaporate, only to win anyway. The poll aggregators have been remarkably consistent.
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03 Sep 12
Originally posted by sh76Both Silver and Maddow are referencing the Ipsos poll, which does show a small bounce, but other than a North Carolina poll, it was the only good news for Romney so far. And I assume that half a dozen polls will come out over the next few days.
That isn't exactly true.
The consensus is perhaps that it was a small bounce, but a bounce. It was not just Rasmussen.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/03/sept-2-split-verdict-in-polls-on-romney-convention-bounce/
I agree that we have the most early decided electorate in a long time excepting perhaps 2004 where it was all galvanized pretty early. It will come down to six or seven percent of the voters who may vote one way or another based on God knows what. Maybe Friday's jobs numbers will make a difference, and kill whatever bounce Obama gets from his speech. Or maybe nothing will change until the debates. And maybe nothing will change at all and it will be very close in November where GOTV decides the results.
I'm actually surprised at how few polls have been released post-convention. Maybe they're all waiting for the work week.
03 Sep 12
Originally posted by sh76Nate's model moved up Obama's chances of winning significantly since August 26; it now rates the chances of his re-election as 74.5% a rise of 5.1% in a week.
That isn't exactly true.
The consensus is perhaps that it was a small bounce, but a bounce. It was not just Rasmussen.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/03/sept-2-split-verdict-in-polls-on-romney-convention-bounce/
04 Sep 12
Originally posted by KunsooPolls are for cross country skiers and strippers. The great majority of polls are managed by partisans who get the results they pay for in an effort to push the only poll that counts in their direction.
Both Silver and Maddow are referencing the Ipsos poll, which does show a small bounce, but other than a North Carolina poll, it was the only good news for Romney so far. And I assume that half a dozen polls will come out over the next few days.
I agree that we have the most early decided electorate in a long time excepting perhaps 2004 where it was all ga ...[text shortened]... w few polls have been released post-convention. Maybe they're all waiting for the work week.
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04 Sep 12
Originally posted by normbenignIt's popular to say that, but actually polls have been fairly predictive over the past decade. Not exit polls so much, but tracking polls have done pretty well, and Gallup in particular has done very well.
Polls are for cross country skiers and strippers. The great majority of polls are managed by partisans who get the results they pay for in an effort to push the only poll that counts in their direction.
There is a sign that the Republicans are starting to panic a little bit. Romney and the Koch bros superPACs have pulled out of Pennsylvania, despite having the suppression law upheld. Maybe they'll go back in, but if Pennsylvania is removed from the list of battleground states, it's all about Florida or Ohio. Obama is slightly ahead in both.
04 Sep 12
Originally posted by no1marauderYes, because his model expected a 4 point bounce and penalized him for falling short of that.
Nate's model moved up Obama's chances of winning significantly since August 26; it now rates the chances of his re-election as 74.5% a rise of 5.1% in a week.
The model expected a 6 point Obama bounce after his convention, so if he gets less than that, you'll see the numbers narrow again.
04 Sep 12
1 edit
Originally posted by normbenignTelephone polls have been deadly accurate predictors of who wins elections. In 2004, the RCP average nailed 49 states, missing only a state that was barely polled at all (Hawaii). In 2008, RCP average nailed 48 states, missing only 2 states (NC and IN) that were decided by tiny margins.
Polls are for cross country skiers and strippers. The great majority of polls are managed by partisans who get the results they pay for in an effort to push the only poll that counts in their direction.
Telephone polls have been more precise even than exit polls.
04 Sep 12
1 edit
Further proof that Nate Silver and I are kindred spirits.
From today's 538:
But do you notice a pattern here? The three smallest bounces for the challenging candidates came in the last three elections. Bounces aren’t what they used to be, perhaps because voters are saturated with information months in advance of an election, increased partisanship and sterilized conventions that may have become too polished for their own good.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
04 Sep 12
Originally posted by sh76They used to be a LOT more fun...
Further proof that Nate Silver and I are kindred spirits.
From today's 538:
But do you notice a pattern here? The three smallest bounces for the challenging candidates came in the last three elections. Bounces aren’t what they used to be, perhaps because voters are saturated with information months in advance of an election, increased partisanship ...[text shortened]... have become too polished for their own good.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
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04 Sep 12
Originally posted by SleepyguyI think we're just more informed about politics, and therefor more ideologically galvanized. And unlike the past, there's a certain level of parity between the two prevailing ideological frameworks.
They used to be a LOT more fun...
http://ace.mu.nu/Windows-Live-Writer/Overnight-Open-Th_10033/tumblr_m9hsoaHBRg1qbz9meo1_500_thumb.jpg