@Mott-The-Hoople saidNo they are outcome simulations.
electoral vs popular
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
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@no1marauder said“"A new New York Times/Siena College poll this morning contained excellent news for Donald Trump, showing him 1 point ahead in a head-to-head matchup against Kamala Harris and 2 points up with minor candidates included. This is one of our highest-rated pollsters, so it has a fair amount of influence on the numbers, reducing Harris’s lead in our national polling average to 2.5 points, which would put her in dangerous territory in the Electoral College," Silver wrote in the update at 11 a.m. on Sunday. ”
Actually I was right: 538 has Harris up 2.8 points. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
RCP has Harris up 1.9 points.https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris-vs-kennedy-vs-stein-vs-west
EDIT: Well tomorrow is September 10th, so I'm not right yet.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/polling-guru-nate-silver-predicts-trump-has-64-chance-winning-electoral-college-latest-forecast
There's been much ado in the media about the New York Times/Sienna poll stating Trump is ahead in the polls to win, and it's been called "the most accurate" poll.
If that is indeed the most reputable poll, Harris is in trouble. That's in addition to reports that Kamala's momentum has stalled.
This will pretty much come down to the debate. Trump's performance will not matter, only Harris' will since Trump's base will always be locked. Harris can't just win the debate, she has to utterly trounce Trump, which I'm not sure she has the ability to do.
Prediction: if Kalama does well at the debate, she'll win it. If the debate is close, even if Kamala's considered the winner, Trump wins.
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@no1marauder saidI'm hopeful, but not predicting. The last thing we need in the Whitehouse is a convicted felon who wants to imprison all of his political opponents.
The polling aggregates at Real Clear Politics and 538 will have Vice President Harris leading Donald Trump on September 10th, about two weeks after she is nominated at the Democratic Convention.
@mchill saidWe might just get that.
I'm hopeful, but not predicting. The last thing we need in the Whitehouse is a convicted felon who wants to imprison all of his political opponents.
Trump has been pretty untouchable. Mueller investigation, 2 impeachments, 2 civil suits 4 criminal charges totaling over 90 different felonies...and he just brushed them all off.
His case in Florida: dropped. His NY sentencing: postponed (twice) until after the election. Georgia: pushed back until after the election. DC? Basically dismissed by Supreme Court.
The title of "Teflon Don" should officially be awarded to Trump.
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@Mott-The-Hoople saidA simple:
“"A new New York Times/Siena College poll this morning contained excellent news for Donald Trump, showing him 1 point ahead in a head-to-head matchup against Kamala Harris and 2 points up with minor candidates included. This is one of our highest-rated pollsters, so it has a fair amount of influence on the numbers, reducing Harris’s lead in our national polling ...[text shortened]... edia/polling-guru-nate-silver-predicts-trump-has-64-chance-winning-electoral-college-latest-forecast
"Damn that prediction you made 7 weeks ago when Trump was leading was spot on!"
Will do.
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@vivify saiddo you think Trump will be treated fairly?
There's been much ado in the media about the New York Times/Sienna poll stating Trump is ahead in the polls to win, and it's been called "the most accurate" poll.
If that is indeed the most reputable poll, Harris is in trouble. That's in addition to reports that Kamala's momentum has stalled.
This will pretty much come down to the debate. Trump's performance will not ...[text shortened]... debate, she'll win it. If the debate is close, even if Kamala's considered the winner, Trump wins.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/09/09/report-abc-campaign-coverage-been-100-percent-positive-harris-93-percent-negative-trump/
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@no1marauder saidbut she is not leading…read what I posted
A simple:
"Damn that prediction you made 7 weeks ago when Trump was leading was spot on!"
Will do.
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@Mott-The-Hoople saidHe won't be treated fairly because he's a billionaire former president with lots of political power. He will OJ every case.
do you think Trump will be treated fairly?
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/09/09/report-abc-campaign-coverage-been-100-percent-positive-harris-93-percent-negative-trump/
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@no1marauder saidTrump was helping Kamala's poll numbers. Remember when I told you that?
A simple:
"Damn that prediction you made 7 weeks ago when Trump was leading was spot on!"
Will do.
Why aren't you giving me credit for the same prediction? I told you the polls would tighten as a direct result of Trump making obvious innocuous attacks on Kamala.
If Trump had said "prison slavery Kamala" nobody would have been stupid enough to make that prediction. Trump is holding back. He is helping Kamala improve her poll numbers. That way they will not have to keep rigging them forever.
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@Mott-The-Hoople saidShe is leading in the two poll aggregates I said she would be on September 10.
but she is not leading…read what I posted
Therefore, my prediction was correct (or will be tomorrow).
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@wildgrass saidNate Silver is no longer with 538; he runs his own site called Silver Bulletin. https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
No they are outcome simulations.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
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@Mott-The-Hoople saidThanks for demonstrating why the Electoral College should be abandoned.
electoral vs popular
It is election rigging.
"One person - one vote" is the only fair method. It is pure democracy in action.
So I can see why you don't like it.
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@Suzianne
Yep, how many of us would NOT be in prison if we got ahold of a top secret document telling how close a US sub can approach a Russian sub undetected and we told it out loud to an Australian billionaire who BTW, retold it to some 40 people.
How many hours would it take for any one of us here, left, right, independent, straight, gay, black, white, Asian, baptist, Jew, Muslim, whatever, how long till WE were in jail and the keys thrown away?