Debates
23 Aug 23
@vivify saidOr Prigozhin is / was as thick as two short planks. He should have taken his shot at offing Putin when he had the chance
I'm actually shocked it took this long.
I found it odd that Putin let Prigozhin continue leading, as if his rebellion was all water under the bridge. Then I found a video saying Putin may have let him continue to live in order to find more traitors.
Maybe that plane had other people Putin wanted dead since I doubt mercenary leaders travel alone.
IF true, Putin is a cunning villain.
25 Aug 23
It would make sense that he was assassinated.
It would make sense that part of the deal he took involved eventually faking his death, and when a small commuter plane crashed, the Russian government claimed that he and other key Wagnerites were on it.
The least believable theory is that it accidentally crashed, for no reason tied to politics, and he happened to just be on it, lol.
25 Aug 23
@eintaluj saidNone.
What chance did Prigozhine have to take Moscow?
Some say that this was not even realistically his goal... Since even a taking of Moscow would have required a great showing of support by other military leaders and perhaps key politicans and the populace in general, which never materialized, so even if an actual coup was the intention, it failed... peacefully!
But many suggest that Putin was never actually the intended target, but rather the goal was to actually remove Shoigu, and Putin was not under threat, so it could have been viewed as an internal military conflict.
Rumors pesist that part of the reason why the coup was defused was because Putin agreed to remove Shoigu...
Shoigu, however, remains the Minister of Defence, though theoretically his power could have been moderated in other ways behidn closed doors.
But what we are ultimately talking about is trying to understand the inside baseball of an opaque, authoritarian regime. It just won't be very enlightening.
25 Aug 23
If this sort of thing happened in the USA it would be called a conspiracy theory.
But because it happened in Russia........
Of course it is likely he was murdered. Flying is statistically pretty safe. That is why I don't believe Ted Kennedy's plane crash was an accident. 2 of his friends died in that plane crash. Ted was lucky to survive. It changed him too.
25 Aug 23
@Metal-Brain
Not only him but senior members of his staff were on that plane too. Putin got rid of a bunch of his enemies all at once, just like he has to at least 10 other people who got in his way, IE, spoke out. How do you like your boss now comrade?
25 Aug 23
@sonhouse saidWhat do you expect? Do you think it would go down any different if all of that happened here? The CIA plotted to assassinate Assange and all he did was leak the truth some people didn't want to be public. Prigo turned on his own country militarily. Don't tell me you didn't expect this?
@Metal-Brain
Not only him but senior members of his staff were on that plane too. Putin got rid of a bunch of his enemies all at once, just like he has to at least 10 other people who got in his way, IE, spoke out. How do you like your boss now comrade?
I keep on telling you there are no white hats. You think there are good guys among these competing organized crime syndicates. I'm here to tell you good guys do not survive the brutal competition at the highest levels. Only evil people do.
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25 Aug 23
@vivify saidI suspect, not as cunning as all that. This may have been a major mistake.
IF true, Putin is a cunning villain.
The Wagner group didn't just consist of Prigozhin and wossname Wagner. It also consists of its members. Nasty, war criminal, murderous, unpleasant members to whom the word "forgiveness" does not come easy but the words "loyalty to the group" do. And make no mistake, despite being payrolled by the Kremlin, these murder hobos are not loyal to Putin. They were loyal to the guys Putin (probably) just murdered. They are not going to be best pleased. In fact, there is already evidence on-line that they are not best pleased. There are already calls on Wagner accounts for Putin to be assassinated.
If it is proven that Putin ordered the plane shot down, I predict two things, and both are disastrous for him:
1. The Wagner group stops doing Russia's bidding in Ukraine. They may continue fighting, but for themselves, against both Ukrainian and Russian soldiers. They may plunder for their own sake, which at least will please Russia as well; but they may also start plundering Russia or Russia-occupied territory. They will certainly not take Kyiv and turn it over to Moscow.
2. There will not even be a price on the head of Putin; there will be a general understanding that he is to be killed just for honour's sake. Putin will never be able to show his face again. BRICS conference in Cape Town? There are Wagner contingents in Africa. There will be two thousand FSB agents protecting Vlad, and twenty Wagner members only one of whom has to get lucky. And they can try again next day.
If Putin was indeed behind this, I believe he has lethally underestimated the desperate, doomed viciousness of the bunch of death-convicted criminals he is dealing with. Either that, or he has equally lethally overestimated his own authority and reputation.
On TVTropes, they have a page for this: https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/NiceJobFixingItVillain
26 Aug 23
1 edit
@shallow-blue saidPutin can target their families, their property, their access to weapons...he can have them sent to Africa, he can imprison and torture them...he can send them into a losing battle...
I suspect, not as cunning as all that. This may have been a major mistake.
The Wagner group didn't just consist of Prigozhin and wossname Wagner. It also consists of its members. Nasty, war criminal, murderous, unpleasant members to whom the word "forgiveness" does not come easy but the words "loyalty to the group" do. And make no mistake, despite being payrolled by t ...[text shortened]... ropes, they have a page for this: https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/NiceJobFixingItVillain
He has a LOT of resources to keep such people suppressed.
26 Aug 23
@philokalia saidTo take Moscow or to take Shoigu, no difference. The chances of success were small.
None.
Some say that this was not even realistically his goal... Since even a taking of Moscow would have required a great showing of support by other military leaders and perhaps key politicans and the populace in general, which never materialized, so even if an actual coup was the intention, it failed... peacefully!
But many suggest that Putin was never act ...[text shortened]... derstand the inside baseball of an opaque, authoritarian regime. It just won't be very enlightening.
My comment was a critical answer to @kevcvs57 's comment above.
Your answer interprets my question as having some other purposes.
06 Oct 23
@metal-brain saidFrom the link quoted:
Putin On Prigozhin Death: Wagner Leaders Got Drunk, High, & Played With Grenades Aboard Plane.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putin-prigozhin-death-wagner-leaders-got-drunk-high-played-grenades-aboard-plane
I didn't see this coming. Weird.
President Vladimir Putin just floated the most interesting - and let's say, colorful - theory to date.
Anybody can say anything. So what?