07 May 13
Originally posted by moon1969Here is the other side of the story according to Bob Rinear:
Thanks Mr. President. Keep up the good work of helping us get out of the Bush great recession, and the economic devastation wrought by Republican rule. We have come a long way since Bush left office and after 8-years of Republican rule when we were losing 500,000 jobs per month.
[quote][b]US employers add 165K jobs, rate falls to 7.5 pct.
WASHING ...[text shortened]... /www.chron.com/jobs/article/US-employers-add-165K-jobs-rate-falls-to-7-5-pct-4485686.php[/b]
Thursday the market reacted to that statement and gained back all of Wednesday's losses. Once again we were at "all time highs". But there was that nagging non farm payroll report to deal with. After the ADP report suggested there were very few jobs created, would that put a wrench in the works? They were looking for 140K jobs to be created....would we get it? Well, Friday morning rolled around and guess what happened? Despite companies saying the future doesn't look so hot and they're not hiring, we supposedly created 165K jobs. That was considerably more than even the most bullish were looking for. How on earth did we do that??
Well, we took a look. The first thing we noticed was that the "hours worked" portion of the report fell by a whopping 2 points as it was 34.6 last month and just 32.4 this month. That is a huge fall. See what is supposed to happen is that companies are so busy, they force people to work more hours and when they can't squeeze out one more minute of their time they go hire more folks. So why would they be hiring if the work week is shrinking?? Then we noticed the part time portion of things. All in all, if the report could stand on its own feet, In sum, the April report describes a part time employment economy, with most new jobs being part time and in service sector. Wages/hours were declining. Is that a reason to soar higher? Not really. So if everyone's part time and wages are shrinking and hours are being lost...where'd we get the 165K from???
Welcome our magicians at the BLS. The inclusion of jobs via their "birth/death" model was an astounding 193K jobs. Do the math folks. The BLS "made up" 193K jobs and still the official report came in at 165. In other words, we LOST jobs in April, we didn't gain them. The 193K jobs the BLS included in the report don't really exist. Basically the Birth/Death model says "for every "X" amount of people that get laid off, "X" amount of them will go out and open new businesses and hire people. They report that phantom number as fact". Now do you really think that a bunch of folks that lost their jobs, or were sitting on couches collecting unemployment actually went out an opened businesses and hired almost 200K people? If you do, you need medication. Of course they didn't. The report was as bogus as a politicians speech.
But the market LOVED it. In seconds the futures soared. When the DOW opened it was up 100 and reaching for more. In a matter of moments the DOW was flirting with 15,000 and the S&P was clearly into all time highs again. All based on a bogus report created out of the twisted minds of a Government agency. Just to show the lunacy of what happened Friday morning, we were up to 14,994 as we headed into the next economic release which was the "Factory orders". Well guess what? It fell 4 points, an entire point below estimates. Following that the non manufacturing ISM hit. They expected a reading of 54.00. Nope, 53.1. Are you getting the picture here folks? The economy stinks. The job report was a lie and the portion that wasn't a lie shows we're nothing more than a part time society of 30 hour workers asking "would you like fries with that?"
07 May 13
Originally posted by Metal BrainBob Rinear? Really? Nevertheless, my 401k has recovered nicely since the Bush great recession and performed awesome. My best fund is an S&P index fund. Thanks Mr. President.
Here is the other side of the story according to Bob Rinear:
Thursday the market reacted to that statement and gained back all of Wednesday's losses. Once again we were at "all time highs". But there was that nagging non farm payroll report to deal with. After the ADP report suggested there were very few jobs created, would that put a wrench in the wo ...[text shortened]... society of 30 hour workers asking "would you like fries with that?"
What Bob Rinear does not address is how much worse off America and our families would be if the Republican rule and Republican economic devastation had continued, if McCain or Romney had been elected. It really scary to think about.
07 May 13
Originally posted by moon1969Okay. You go long then. You will regret it though. My advise is to sell soon, but it is up to you to ignore my good advice or take it. History will prove me right. The economy still sucks! This will not last long.
Bob Rinear? Really? Nevertheless, my 401k has recovered nicely since the Bush great recession and performed awesome. My best fund is an S&P index fund. Thanks Mr. President.
What Bob Rinear does not address is how much worse off America and our families would be if the Republican rule and Republican economic devastation had continued, if McCain or Romney had been elected. It really scary to think about.
The imbalances in the economy keep getting worse. You don't think QE is a cure all do you? It is just a temporary fix that will not last. Be a conformist at your own risk. You have been warned.
From the link below:
"Farm Land
George has said holding interest rates near zero for too long risks creating financial bubbles. She said in January that prices of assets “such as bonds, agricultural land, and high- yield and leveraged loans are at historically high levels” and may signal market imbalances."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-20/fed-keeps-85-billion-pace-of-bond-buying-as-job-market-improves.html
It is really Bernanke that deserves the credit or blame, not Obama. Of course, you could place blame at Greenspan for a lot of what led up to the economic crisis too. The bottom line is that lower interest rates will not cure the problems in the economy. It will just create new ones and delay the inevitable and the crash will be even worse than the first one. It would be better to let the market correct the imbalances now, but Bernanke has opted for a harder path later and the landing will be really hard!
08 May 13
Originally posted by moon1969I am doing some tweaks, as I turn age 50 this year.
Bob Rinear? Really? Nevertheless, my 401k has recovered nicely since the Bush great recession and performed awesome. My best fund is an S&P index fund. Thanks Mr. President.
What Bob Rinear does not address is how much worse off America and our families would be if the Republican rule and Republican economic devastation had continued, if McCain or Romney had been elected. It really scary to think about.
08 May 13
Originally posted by Metal BrainHow's your gold doing?
Okay. You go long then. You will regret it though. My advise is to sell soon, but it is up to you to ignore my good advice or take it. History will prove me right. The economy still sucks! This will not last long.
The imbalances in the economy keep getting worse. You don't think QE is a cure all do you? It is just a temporary fix that will not last. Be a conformist at your own risk. You have been warned.
08 May 13
2 edits
Originally posted by KazetNagorraNot bad considering the naked shorting that was done to bring it down. That is why when gold investors buy paper instead of physical gold they help screw themselves. I warned about that if you recall.
How's your gold doing?
After the weak kneed investors got scared out of the gold market, buyers came in with a vengeance and bought physical gold like crazy. I'll bet a lot of that buying was done by the very people who did the naked shorting to reduce the price and take advantage of it. Gold has erased about half of that sharp drop in the last couple of weeks.
There was a shortage of gold and silver coins, especially silver. Maybe there still is. Dealers were charging high premiums because of that shortage which was repelling buyers until supply meets demand. When supply resumes (eliminating the high premiums) so will buying and prices will rise again.
Central banks bought a lot of gold last year despite the high prices, probably because they know how much currency they are creating.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-24/gold-rout-for-central-banks-buying-most-since-1964-commodities.html
If central banks are buying why would you want to sell unless they suddenly sell? This is a great opportunity to buy. You should take advantage of the correction before the Euro gets clobbered.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/27/forex-euro-dollar-idUSL2E8FQ5UM20120427
08 May 13
Originally posted by moon1969What has Obama done differently with the economy than Bush would have? I see no significant differences between the two. The economic devastation is partly due to Bill Clinton, not just republicans.
What Bob Rinear does not address is how much worse off America and our families would be if the Republican rule and Republican economic devastation had continued, if McCain or Romney had been elected. It really scary to think about.
Don't you have better things to do than engage in senseless partisan bias?
08 May 13
Originally posted by Metal BrainI wish we could return to the Clinton years when we had a budget surplus and massive job growth.
What has Obama done differently with the economy than Bush would have? I see no significant differences between the two. The economic devastation is partly due to Bill Clinton, not just republicans.
Don't you have better things to do than engage in senseless partisan bias?
08 May 13
Originally posted by moon1969Who cares when Bill Clinton helped repeal the Glass-Steagall act.
I wish we could return to the Clinton years when we had a budget surplus and massive job growth.
http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/economic-intelligence/2012/08/27/repeal-of-glass-steagall-caused-the-financial-crisis
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gramm%E2%80%93Leach%E2%80%93Bliley_Act
You really don't want to be confused with facts do you?