30 Apr 20
@sh76 saidscaremongering is what makes the rich richer. happens all the time.
A second wave being worse than this one is extremely unlikely.
First, this one DID hit during flu season (Feb/March is flu season)
Second, we didn't socially distance at ALL when the wave was building in February and early March. It will not catch us by surprise again. We will be at some level of social distancing from the outset next time and will be able to increase that ...[text shortened]... the much discussed ventilator).
Predicting a second wave worse than the first is scaremongering.
30 Apr 20
@mchill saidNot taking sides here but would it not be more likely that the one with feelings of impending doom would more likely have the label of snowflake than the one saying Oh well, we will see. sorry but no matter if you agree with his view or not it does not make him a snowflake.
Sorry if the truth hurts little snowflake! 😳
30 Apr 20
@mchill said - If doctors are predicting a 2nd wave being worse than the 1st, I'd take them seriously if I were you. 🙂
As expert as they are, they are out of their element a bit with this virus and containment. Look at the early models of the infections to know that the experts proved to be radically wrong.
30 Apr 20
@jimmac saidI noticed Wall Street is going crazy LOL. yup, "follow the money".
scaremongering is what makes the rich richer. happens all the time.
I recently bought 1,000 shares of Tater Tots. Did I do a bad? lol
30 Apr 20
@mchill saidThat's a silly way to look at things. For every possible opinion out there, there are 100 people arguing for it. An educated amateur can make judgments about which projections are and are not most likely. Moreover, an amateur can infer motivations of people; and certainly epidemiologists may be trying to warn people of the worst possibilities to encourage good behavior.
Predicting a second wave worse than the first is scaremongering.
Sh76 - You're a lawyer, and though I value your legal opinions, you're a bit out of your element here. Arguing medical issues with doctors, is a bit like arguing the structural integrity buildings with experienced architects and engineers. If doctors are predicting a 2nd wave being worse than the 1st, I'd take them seriously if I were you. 🙂
I'm not an epidemiologist, but I'm a highly-informed amateur given the volume I've read on COVID in the last 8 weeks.
I absolutely assure you that most doctors are not "predicting" a 2nd wave being worse than the 1st. Even the article you cited in the OP is not a "prediction" but a warning of a possibility.
I know this comes second nature to people who work with statistics, but many people have a lot of trouble distinguishing between possibilities and probabilities.
The article you cited is filled with words like "could" and "would" and "possibilities."
It is not a prediction nor an asserted likelihood.
I concede also that it's a possibility, but unlikely for the reasons I cited.
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30 Apr 20
@mchill saidIn other words: if you don't want The Matrix to absorb you, kill yourself now.
The bottom line folks is the world is simply going to have to find a different way of operating.
I just might. I don't want to live in a world ruled by Duchess and Trump.
30 Apr 20
@shallow-blue saidWay to contribute to the topic of the thread.
Yeah, we'd all realised that from your incessant posting of context-less links to gradeschoolscience.com.
Or is that beyond your ability?
You, like several others are simply around here to be a dipsht.
30 Apr 20
@sh76 saidI think there are factors pointing in both directions. If there is a second outbreak then the individual State governors will not wait for the lead of the Federal Government the next time. They'll simply issue their stay-at-home orders as and when they regard them as necessary. The various administrations will have experience and the benefit of hindsight going into it. The medical profession have experience with treating the disease now, so there'll be fewer deaths just because of craft improvements. The People are acclimatised to lockdown conditions and can defend against transmission of the virus better. So there are numerous factors that'll make it easier, as well as the prospect of a vaccine.
A second wave being worse than this one is extremely unlikely.
First, this one DID hit during flu season (Feb/March is flu season)
Second, we didn't socially distance at ALL when the wave was building in February and early March. It will not catch us by surprise again. We will be at some level of social distancing from the outset next time and will be able to increase that ...[text shortened]... the much discussed ventilator).
Predicting a second wave worse than the first is scaremongering.
On the down side depending on what the basic reproduction number actually is, I've seen estimates ranging from 3 to 15, then the US is miles away from "herd immunity" and another outbreak has the potential to be no less severe than the first. There's a danger of complacency, especially as businesses and individuals will be reluctant to take further hits to their finances. Some of the factors I listed in the first paragraph can act to undermine the effort.
Happily for the UK Johnson and his government seem to understand that coming out of the lockdown too soon is a huge mistake, so we're not in any immediate danger of a second wave.
30 Apr 20
@DeepThought
We in the US don't have the kind of experience Johnson had so the top dog in our country will probably just say, don't worry be happy, nothing to see here, get your tats, get your hair done, visit that Rangers game, fill those arenas.
30 Apr 20
@deepthought saidHopefully your government can simply print money to keep the economy going. I wonder how much simply printing more money can last.
I think there are factors pointing in both directions. If there is a second outbreak then the individual State governors will not wait for the lead of the Federal Government the next time. They'll simply issue their stay-at-home orders as and when they regard them as necessary. The various administrations will have experience and the benefit of hindsight going into it. ...[text shortened]... t of the lockdown too soon is a huge mistake, so we're not in any immediate danger of a second wave.
Or how far into debt a country can go. The US is over 25 trillion at the moment, soon to be 30?
30 Apr 20
2 edits
@deepthought saidYeah.
I think there are factors pointing in both directions. If there is a second outbreak then the individual State governors will not wait for the lead of the Federal Government the next time. They'll simply issue their stay-at-home orders as and when they regard them as necessary. The various administrations will have experience and the benefit of hindsight going into it. ...[text shortened]... t of the lockdown too soon is a huge mistake, so we're not in any immediate danger of a second wave.
The first paragraph is stronger than the second.
By a lot.
Edit: New York isn't coming out of lockdown any time soon.
And the states that are, by and large, have had very minor outbreaks.