22 Aug 11
Originally posted by trev33Odds are only a mathematical justification, but they are not really applicable in gaming.
i know there's aways a min and max bet on each table but what do you think of the theory of doubling your bet each time you lose and going back to the original bet when you win a hand?
lets say the min bet on a table is $5 and the max $200.
that would give you 6 attempts to win your $5... $5, $10, $20, $40, $80, $160
what are the odds of losing 6 hands in a row?
While you may think they do, the cards have no memory so it is much like flipping a coin.
While you can say the odds of flipping a coin 10 times in a row all landing on heads
would be astronomical, the acts are all independent and you are placing a condition.
That being said, the doubling theory would work the majority of the time,
provided you have enough bankroll to outlast the game, and you play perfectly.
You are better playing on a much higher bet max limit but this is another way that
the house is trying to increase its edge on the player.
However, the house edge would always cut into you so the system isn't perfect.
Unless you are the only player at the table, you cannot control the stupidity of other
players in their actions which can drastically alter your cards and your decisions.
Blackjack is a game you can make money at over the long haul, but it is a slow
hard grind to do so. Now, you can get lucky and make a great run, but you can also
hit a dry spell that will sink you like a stone.
22 Aug 11
Originally posted by greenpawn34Thanks, Geoff. I've already resumed my daily dosage of your inimitable blog.
In Pontoon, the British version of Blackjack the dealer
does not display his first card. (Perhaps Trev has them mixed up.)
When I played you could not stick on 16 or under (this included the dealer).
(sounds like Trev is again mixed up.)
Welcome back Gramps.
Nothing has changed since you have been away.
(Trev is still all mixed up.) 😉
- Joined
- 29 Dec 08
- Moves
- 6788
23 Aug 11
Originally posted by trev33"In 150 turns, there is a 70.7% chance that you will lose 6 times in a row at coin tossing."''
i know there's aways a min and max bet on each table but what do you think of the theory of doubling your bet each time you lose and going back to the original bet when you win a hand?
lets say the min bet on a table is $5 and the max $200.
that would give you 6 attempts to win your $5... $5, $10, $20, $40, $80, $160
what are the odds of losing 6 hands in a row?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_%28betting_system%29
23 Aug 11
Originally posted by JS357There's an observed clustering phenomenon to be reckoned with as well. It's been
"In 150 turns, there is a 70.7% chance that you will lose 6 times in a row at coin tossing."''
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_%28betting_system%29
verified that as many as 12-15 blacks or reds in roulettte (@ 1 to 1) or 20 to 22
craps (@ 30 or 35 to one) have been consecutively hit. The professional wagering
principle derived is to continue placing bets on colors or numbers that are 'hot'.
When the wheel, board or dice are choppy walk away for a much needed lunch.
.
23 Aug 11
1 edit
Originally posted by trev33When I play blackjack, I just blindly follow the grid. It is suppose to give the best possible odds against the house, though the house always has the better odds in any system unless you can count cards effectively. The grid just minimizes your losses.
hit or stick?
I have read where the odds with grid are about 50.6 % to the House, and thus you lose (over the long haul to ride out variations) 60 cents on every 100 dollars you bet, which ain't bad considering you get free drinks (watered down they may be).
With a 16, the grid says to stand if the dealer shows a 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6, and to hit if the dealer shows a 7, 8, 9, 10, or A.