https://phys.org/news/2024-11-formula-life-chances-intelligent-universe.html
A new update on the drake equation.
The only thing I see here is there was no numbers given as to the expected percentage of intelligent life forming.
I would have thought there would be some % number, 1/10 of one percent for intelligent life or some such but see no such evaluation.
From your link:
The new research does not attempt to calculate the absolute number of observers (i.e. intelligent life) in the universe but instead considers the relative probability of a randomly chosen observer inhabiting a universe with particular properties.
So actually it is not about the Drake equation.
@Ponderable
No, it is about analyzing the way stars evolve under the influence of the expansion of the universe under dark energy, whatever that is.
@sonhouse saidI have no clue (besides some interesting speculations by some astronomers).
@Ponderable
No, it is about analyzing the way stars evolve under the influence of the expansion of the universe under dark energy, whatever that is.
@Ponderable
It seems just the start of a theory and even then I don't see how it would effect the search for alien life.
My idea about why we have not found signs of intelligence is this:
it could be only one civilization capable of space travel and the like could happen per galaxy, which still gives billions of civilizations around the universe with scientifically advanced life but of course the effort to find those civilizations would be a million times harder than finding life in our own galaxy which is hard enough as it is.
In fact there was quite some hope to find radiowaves, since the idea has been that at some time a civilization will discover radio signals and then send.
If we look at earth, the maximum of the emission of radio waves is probably already through a maximum. If that is typical we have about 100 years to find the remnants of civilatory activity.
@Ponderable
Well there is also the problem that at least on Earth, there is a maximum time span a given civilization lasts so lets give our civilization 2000 years of viable advanced civilization.
So if that were the rule for aliens too, a civilization coming and going lasting 2000 years, if they were say 8000 light years away that 2000 year pulse of energy we can detect would come and go 4 times the length of any of OUR civilizations so we would never have heard them.
Suppose there was a civilization putting out recognizable signals in any energy band, neutrinos, gravity waves, RF and the like, suppose they put it out for 20 THOUSAND years but they are on the other side of the galaxy which is reportedly 100,000 light years across and they are in fact 100,000 light years way, their pulse of 20,000 years could come and go five times in that time frame
so there is THAT to consider.
Right now for instance, suppose there is a civilization a thousand light years away from us and they are diligently searching all energy bands for signals like ours would be being made, the bubble of space our stuff has gone out now is some 200 lightyears across, we have spewed out signals for about 100 years or so, call it 130 years for grins, then anyone outside of our bubble of detectability would be out of luck right now if they were say 1 thousand light years away because our signals would not even get to them for another 800 odd years and even if they are say 200 light years away and they answer us, 200 more years goes by before we can even SEND a HI, hear you loud and clear back to them so FOUR HUNDRED years go be for HELLO and HI BACK to be exchanged.
So with that in mind an advanced civilization knowing all that could maybe send out a one way signal of say a galactic encyclopedia, and repeat when all that data has been sent ad infinitum.
So a civilization on OUR side of the galaxy trying to talk to one on THEIR side of the galaxy 100,000 light years away wouldn't have the chance of a snowball in hell of getting a reponse.
Like a response that takes 200,000 years to get, humans could be EXTINCT in that time frame, forget advanced signaling capability.