30 Nov 09
6 edits
Originally posted by Sam The ShamUsing your own data from this article, you tell me where the trend is heading. It's pretty obvious China is taking over the role of manufacturing for the world.
China is "the world's manufacturing base"?
http://investing.curiouscatblog.net/2008/09/23/top-manufacturing-countries-in-2007/
I don't know how we expect China to continue to increase their manufacturing output at this rate while cutting emisssions at the same time. It's impossible and arrogant.
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The USA’s share of the manufacturing output of the countries that manufactured over $200 billion in 2007 in 1990 was 28%, 1995 28%, 2000 33%, 2005 30%, 2006 28%, 2007 27%. China’s share has grown from 4% in 1990, 1995 7%, 2000 11%, 2005 13%, 2006 15%, 2007 16%.
Total manufacturing output in the USA was up 76% in 2007 from the 1990 level. Japan, the second largest manufacturer in 1990, and third today, has increased output 15% (the lowest of the top 12, France is next lowest at 32% ) while China is up an amazing 673% (Korea is next at an increase of 271% ).
Since 2000 the USA has the second lowest increase in manufacturing output – up just 19% (Japan is worst with a decrease of 10% ), the group of 12 is up 47% over that period. China is up 129%.
01 Dec 09
Originally posted by sh76Look, building factories in china to sell cheap plastic goods to americans and the world means that china MUST put up smoke stacks and power plants. THEY MUST. They can't just magically produce things and somehow not emit greenhouse gases. Same for India.
But to simply leave China and India on the sidelines is a joke. Whatever we do to curb emissions won't get the job done unless China and India are in the disucssion and are factored into the effort.
There are only 2 real options to actually reduce emissions, and none of them are truly realistic options.
1. Cut the world population.
2. Get consumers to buy less things.
The first solution results in less demand but good luck telling families to keep it to 2 kids or less.
Show the first and second solution to any economist and he'll laugh you off the face of the planet.
So, what do you do? Well, here's a start. Consider that the AUTOMOBILE is responsible for about 30% of ALL GHG emmisions in the US. Hmm, any idea where we can tackle that GHG problem? Hey, Americans, stop buying god dam gas guzzlilng SUV's that get 15 miles to the gallon. Why not jack up the tax on gasoline to make it in line with virtually the rest of the world so people will drive less? That'll tackle YOUR GHG reduction limit right there.
How about requiring all your new homes to have top of the line insulation and solar panels and heat exhcanges installed? How about mandatory time of use meters for your electricity bills?
Ya, try passing off those solutions to the right wing wing-nuts. Look at the reaction of the crazy's just on rhp that start yapping about the consitituion and their rights to free speech or some other non-sense any time the gov tries to change their behiaviour through legislation.
Look, the place to find change is within the US CONSUMER. Get off the backs of industry and get off the backs of other countries that are only doing what YOU, YES YOU AMERICA, have told them to do through your free trade agreements. YOU want china and india to become manufacturing powerhouses so your companies can transfer and lower their labour costs to china in order for your company shareholders to make more profit.
You could slow global warming if you were willing to take less profit by keeping those manufacturing jobs in under-utilized american factories!
So, lay off the chinese and focus that attention upon yourselves first. Mirrors are made to look at yourself, not for profit margins.
01 Dec 09
Originally posted by uzlessThere is a third option. War.
There are only 2 real options to actually reduce emissions, and none of them are truly realistic options.
1. Cut the world population.
2. Get consumers to buy less things..
How long will Americans be comfortable with the knowledge that they are deeply in debt to the Chinese. China built up its miracle largely on the back of savings and direct investment in infrastructure. Investment that does not easily dry up or run. China kept inflation under check while it grew by buying up the US dollar in the form of bonds.
A similar symbiosis occurred between England and Germany over 100 years ago, when London was the financial capital of the world, and Germany was the world's most dynamic economy When that relationship faltered we had ww1. The Treaty of Versailles exacted a huge penalty on Germany and within the space of 20 years we had ww2.
History never taught humanity much, unless to show that when nations see themselves as being cornered they will wage war as a means to end their entrapment.
01 Dec 09
Originally posted by sh76If US cut their emmission to a quater of what it is today, then they would be on the same level as China is today. China is not the one to be to blamed here. In many things, yes, but in this matter, no.
What "good job"??
China has done squat to reduce (or limit the rise in) their emissions.
The reason they only produce 1/4 of the emissions per capita as western countries do is because they were repressed by communism for so many decades that their economy was mired in third World status until they finally got smart and instituted capitalism. Now that the ...[text shortened]... India does) then everything the west does to limit emissions will be borderline irrelevant.
No, not yet. But perhaps in the future, when every Chinese citizen wants their own car, as Americans have had for a long time. But why blame China now for their future guilt? Why not blame US for the present guilt? That's my point.
When USA is on the same level per capita as China, then Americans can point fingers. Not before.
01 Dec 09
1 edit
Originally posted by FabianFnasGreat. Adopt that attitude if you like. But, that attitude means that emissions won't be cut. In fact, emissions will continue to rise for the foreseeable future under that attitude no matter what the West does.
If US cut their emmission to a quater of what it is today, then they would be on the same level as China is today. China is not the one to be to blamed here. In many things, yes, but in this matter, no.
No, not yet. But perhaps in the future, when every Chinese citizen wants their own car, as Americans have had for a long time. But why blame China now hen USA is on the same level per capita as China, then Americans can point fingers. Not before.
So, if you believe MMGW is a major problem and you adopt that attitude towards China and India, then in a couple of decades, most of the World's coastal regions will be under water, tropical storms and devastating heatwaves will be ravaging our civilizations. People will be starving because crop production has been decreased dramatically.
But hey, at least you'll know who to blame. That's great comfort indeed.
MY point is that guilt or blame has nothing to do with it. Do you want the problem solved or don't you? My guess is that many MMGW advocates don't really believe all the calamitous predictions (they believe in MMGW to be sure, but not really in the predicted dire consequences) and are perfectly willing to use the MMGW problem as a means to help achieve a socialistic or quasi-socialistic World order by leveling the playing field between the developing World and the developed World. Of course, it also helps if you live in a county with a centralized population and so you don't depend on the automobile as much as, say the United States. That makes it even more convenient to be worried about MMGW.
Face it, if you really believed that we're at a crossroads and that failure to act dramatically in the near future could damn the fate of humanity for evermore, you wouldn't have time to dick around with concepts like guilt and fault and all that nonsense. You'd be demanding immediate action by ALL relevant parties; not by all relevant parties except for the two parties whose emissions are growing the fastest and are likely to grow exponentially in the coming decades.
Oh, and I agree with uzless that we should stop consuming so much Chinese junk. That would help on so many levels, not just on the carbon emissions front.
01 Dec 09
Originally posted by uzlessIncidentally, I have one question. Not a challenge; just a question.
Look, building factories in china to sell cheap plastic goods to americans and the world means that china MUST put up smoke stacks and power plants. THEY MUST. They can't just magically produce things and somehow not emit greenhouse gases. Same for India.
There are only 2 real options to actually reduce emissions, and none of them are truly realistic op ...[text shortened]... tion upon yourselves first. Mirrors are made to look at yourself, not for profit margins.
Does Europe import stuff from China also? Does Chinese crap line the shelves of your five and dimes like it does our Walmarts? Or is everything you use in Europe (and Canada for that matter) produced domestically?
01 Dec 09
Originally posted by sh76I think around 1/6 of all EU imports (from non-member countries) are from China.
Does Europe import stuff from China also? Does Chinese crap line the shelves of your five and dimes like it does our Walmarts? Or is everything you use in Europe (and Canada for that matter) produced domestically?
01 Dec 09
Originally posted by sh76I'm talking about CO2 emissions. Nothing else.
Great. Adopt that attitude if you like. But, that attitude means that emissions won't be cut. In fact, emissions will continue to rise for the foreseeable future under that attitude no matter what the West does.
If everyone, every individual, came down to China's level of emision per capita, then much of the problem would be solved. One country that has very much to do in this matter is (you've already guessed it) is USA. More than four times emission per capita more than that of China.
You can read in many things between my words that you'd rather discuss, fine, but then open a new thread about that. I'm talking about CO2 emissions. Nothing else.
01 Dec 09
Originally posted by FabianFnasI'm also only talking about CO2 emissions.
I'm talking about CO2 emissions. Nothing else.
If everyone, every individual, came down to China's level of emision per capita, then much of the problem would be solved. One country that has very much to do in this matter is (you've already guessed it) is USA. More than four times emission per capita more than that of China.
You can read in many thi ...[text shortened]... fine, but then open a new thread about that. I'm talking about CO2 emissions. Nothing else.
===If everyone, every individual, came down to China's level of emision per capita, then much of the problem would be solved. ===
Well, yes, and if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle.
It's not going to happen. On the contrary, China's going to come UP to everyone else's level a lot faster than everyone else is going to come down to China's level.
Therein lies the problem.
01 Dec 09
Originally posted by sh76I don't know anything about your aunties balls. And that's besides the point.
I'm also only talking about CO2 emissions.
===If everyone, every individual, came down to China's level of emision per capita, then much of the problem would be solved. ===
Well, yes, and if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle.
It's not going to happen. On the contrary, China's going to come UP to everyone else's level a lot faster than everyone else is going to come down to China's level.
Therein lies the problem.
Sure, if I had the previledge to have 4 times of something more than others, and som of this previledge have to go down, the of course I wouldn't want to lose that previledge, rather would I want others to cut down their previledges as much as needed, only I don't have to.
USA have emmission on about 19 units per capita, China only 4.6 per capita. This says to me that USA, not China, should start and lead the way. When USA begin to show some progress, then USA begins to earn my respect. And we are not talking about tenth of a unit here.
We are talking about now. Not in the future. Now. And we're in a hurry.
01 Dec 09
3 edits
Originally posted by FabianFnasSo, you're saying that first the US should cut emissions and everyone else should sit back and go on their merry way. Then, if and only if, the US succeeds in cutting emissions, everyone else can follow suit?
I don't know anything about your aunties balls. And that's besides the point.
Sure, if I had the previledge to have 4 times of something more than others, and som of this previledge have to go down, the of course I wouldn't want to lose that previledge, rather would I want others to cut down their previledges as much as needed, only I don't have to.
...[text shortened]... of a unit here.
We are talking about now. Not in the future. Now. And we're in a hurry.
Gee, what a great way to solve an urgent problem.
Are you looking to solve the problem or are you not? If you are, what does earning your respect have to do with anything?
BTW, I was looking at that list of emissions per capita.
Did you notice that Canada and Australia have substantially the same emissions per capita as does the US? Should they also join the US in taking the lead in cutting emissions?
====USA have emmission on about 19 units per capita, China only 4.6 per capita. This says to me that USA, not China, should start and lead the way. When USA begin to show some progress, then USA begins to earn my respect. And we are not talking about tenth of a unit here. ====
Maybe the US can cut emissions while China stabilizes them, or at least promises to take steps to keep its rise in check.
01 Dec 09
Originally posted by sh76Of course it does. China exports to virtually every country in the world. And this is exactly my point. You can't expect China to keep on increasing it's manufacturing output every year and not increase its emissions.
Incidentally, I have one question. Not a challenge; just a question.
Does Europe import stuff from China also? Does Chinese crap line the shelves of your five and dimes like it does our Walmarts? Or is everything you use in Europe (and Canada for that matter) produced domestically?
The US however, is the country where China exports the MOST products. The Western nations all have a responsibility to reduce their emissions. I highlight the US because they are responsible for the vast majority of emissions due to not just their sheer size and numbers, but also because of their lifestyle:
Big giant vehicles that are horrible on gas. Almost no where else on the planet do you find as high a percentage of drivers driving SUV's and Pick-up trucks. Most everywhere else you find smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles being driven. esp in Canada.
Power generation facilities in the US are largely COAL and the coal industry is pushing for even more! Canada, France etc are largely dependant on nuclear or hydro-electric (near 0 emissions)
It's pretty obvious where things are headed. Manufacturing is dying in the west and is being replaced by cheap labour in the east. This is the future. We need to be realistic.
But honestly, we will never be able to reduce emissions until we slow/reverse the population increase. It's the one elephant that no one seems to want to talk about or even understand. Over-population is the real environmental problem and it drives every single issue we face today.
01 Dec 09
Originally posted by uzlessYou want to know why "no one seems to want to talk about" that issue? I'll tell you why. Because it's an issue on which the US cannot be blamed. The US has one of the lower population densities per habitable square mile.
But honestly, we will never be able to reduce emissions until we slow/reverse the population increase. It's the one elephant that no one seems to want to talk about or even understand. Over-population is the real environmental problem and it drives every single issue we face today.