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Is WWIII Realistic?

Is WWIII Realistic?

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Rajk999
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@thedogandthecello said
Plenty of NATO countries fought in Afghanistan for 20 years and lost. (USA, Canada, UK, Germany, France, etc etc)


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Afghanistan_(2001%E2%80%932021)
The purpose of the war in Afghanistan was to get rid of Osama Bin Laden, because of his involvement in master-minding several terror attacks in the west notably the 9/11 attack. NATO accomplished that. Subsequently they stayed on hopefully to help the Afghan people to set up a democratic state independently of Islamic terrorists, the Taliban. This is not succeed. Muslims are weak when it comes to rising up against their fellow Islamic terrorists.

From your link: Unable to eliminate the Taliban through military means, coalition forces (and separately, the Afghan government led by Ashraf Ghani) turned to diplomacy to end the conflict. These efforts culminated in the United States–Taliban deal in February 2020, which stipulated the withdrawal of all US troops from Afghanistan by 2021. In exchange, the Taliban pledged to prevent any militant group from staging attacks from Afghan territory against the US and its allies.

NATO did not lose any war. They accomplished what they set out to do and tried to stay on to help further. It did not work so a deal was made with the Taliban and they exited the area. No NATO country wants to get involved in these long drawn out fighting with people who do not want to be helped. If the Afghan people enjoy having Islamic terrorists in charge, thats their business.

sh76
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@vivify

It's time to negotiate a deal with Putin. Push Zelensky to let Russia keep some of the eastern provinces that are really more Russian than Ukrainian anyway (think of those that overwhelmingly supported Yanukovych), so Putin can save face and claim a victory. But Russia and Putin also know now that invading neighbors is not the walkover they thought it would be in 2022. As part of the settlement, Putin promises to lay off the rest of Ukraine and the Baltics.

Yes, I know Putin's promises are worthless, but even if he'll never admit it, he knows that he got a bloody nose in this war, even if sooner or later he'll gain the upper hand. He probably thought he'd be in Kiev in 3 weeks when he invaded. Morally reprehensible though he is, he's realistic and intelligent. As long as he can save face and claim a win, I think there's a good chance for peace without dramatic changes from the status quo.

As for Ukraine ands NATO, again, some sort of face-saving compromise. Give them observer or junior helper status instead of membership. Who cares? There really doesn't need to be a world war over this.

Very Rusty
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@sh76 said
@vivify

It's time to negotiate a deal with Putin. Push Zelensky to let Russia keep some of the eastern provinces that are really more Russian than Ukrainian anyway (think of those that overwhelmingly supported Yanukovych), so Putin can save face and claim a victory. But Russia and Putin also know now that invading neighbors is not the walkover they thought it would be in 2022 ...[text shortened]... lper status instead of membership. Who cares? There really doesn't need to be a world war over this.
Didn't Biden just give Ukraine 8 billion toward their war effort against Russia, or was that Israel? I don't think they are about to back off, or give an inch of land they want to keep what they have as any Country would. I understand they were once a part of the Russian Empire but separated and have their own President.

-VR

sh76
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@Very-Rusty said
Didn't Biden just give Ukraine 8 billion toward their war effort against Russia, or was that Israel? I don't think they are about to back off, or give an inch of land they want to keep what they have as any Country would. I understand they were once a part of the Russian Empire but separated and have their own President.

-VR
It's not a matter of "backing off" it's a matter of facing reality. Russia now controls roughly 10-15% of pre-war Ukraine and re-taking it is going to be very hard. You think it's realistic to throw Russia out of Donbas? Very, very difficult. Plus, the territory held by Russia maps very closely to the territory where the people identify more with Russia anyway.

I'm not defending Putin. He's an evil person who deserved to be imprisoned, but that doesn't alter the reality that the best outcome for everyone right now would be a peace along the lines of a status quo.

Really. Forget politics for a second. What is the point of arming Ukraine to keep fighting over at least trying for a status quo peace? You really think that if we throw another few billion at it, Ukraine will drive Russia out of Donbas and Melitpol? Maybe the Crimea too? Not gonna happen. And even if it does, what have you really accomplished? You make Putin a cornered animal with nukes and you just enforce Ukranian control over people who don't really want it? What's the point? Just to shove it up Putin's a$ $? Is that a reasonable foreign policy goal?

Very Rusty
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@sh76 said
It's not a matter of "backing off" it's a matter of facing reality. Russia now controls roughly 10-15% of pre-war Ukraine and re-taking it is going to be very hard. You think it's realistic to throw Russia out of Donbas? Very, very difficult. Plus, the territory held by Russia maps very closely to the territory where the people identify more with Russia anyway.

I'm not defend ...[text shortened]... nt it? What's the point? Just to shove it up Putin's a$ $? Is that a reasonable foreign policy goal?
Do you really think Putin is going to use Nukes, that would be the end of the world?

-VR

sh76
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@Very-Rusty said
Do you really think Putin is going to use Nukes, that would be the end of the world?

-VR
Will Putin use nukes? Well, if he's backed into a corner and really thinks the alternative is that he'll fall and be executed in some sort of coup, then sure he will. Why wouldn't he?

Will it be the literal end of the world? No. But it will suck.

Very Rusty
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@sh76 said
Will Putin use nukes? Well, if he's backed into a corner and really thinks the alternative is that he'll fall and be executed in some sort of coup, then sure he will. Why wouldn't he?

Will it be the literal end of the world? No. But it will suck.
I believe he is bluffing, have you seen the mansions he has? He certainly wouldn't want them destroyed if he plans on living.

Why do you think he said he would like to see Harris as President and endorsed her? He actually wants Trump as he knows he can get away with more and Trump will let him do what ever the hell he wants. Trump has already said that publicly.

-VR

sh76
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@Very-Rusty said
I believe he is bluffing, have you seen the mansions he has? He certainly wouldn't want them destroyed if he plans on living.

Why do you think he said he would like to see Harris as President and endorsed her? He actually wants Trump as he knows he can get away with more and Trump will let him do what ever the hell he wants. Trump has already said that publicly.

-VR
Listen, I'm as Ameri-centric as the next guy, but why do people have to present every damned world issue as a binary American political issue? This has very little to do with American politics. No American politician really has the wherewithal and the inclination to fight Russia and no American Politician wants to see Putin in Kiev. Everything in between are just shades of gray.

Harris, as with almost every other issue, comes off as unsophisticated on this one. Her "Putin could end the war tomorrow" is an empty bromide. And what? Accept on itself a major military defeat that was never inflicted on it by withdrawing to the 2022 borders? It's not gonna happen and if Harris isn't smart enough to know that, it simply says more about her than anything else. Trump is a dufus who probably couldn't find Ukraine on a map if you spotted him the continent and the latitude (not that he likely know what those words mean either).

This is really not about Trump or Biden (now there's a guy who's really on top of things) or Harris or any of the other clowns we pass off as "leaders" (God, using that word to describe these people makes me gag). It's about reality (or at least it should be).

Very Rusty
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@sh76 said
Listen, I'm as Ameri-centric as the next guy, but why do people have to present every damned world issue as a binary American political issue? This has very little to do with American politics. No American politician really has the wherewithal and the inclination to fight Russia and no American Politician wants to see Putin in Kiev. Everything in between are just shades of gray. ...[text shortened]... ing that word to describe these people makes me gag). It's about reality (or at least it should be).
No it is about Harris and Trump and who wins the election will dictate on how the future of Ukraine goes. Trump said he would let Putin do what ever the hell he wanted. You want him as President??? He will probably try to pull another insurrection if he loses again, and I hope he loses as he is not fit to sit in the Oval Office~! All Trump is doing is trying to keep his ass out of Jail.

-VR

sh76
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@Very-Rusty said
No it is about Harris and Trump and who wins the election will dictate on how the future of Ukraine goes. Trump said he would let Putin do what ever the hell he wanted. You want him as President??? He will probably try to pull another insurrection if he loses again, and I hope he loses as he is not fit to sit in the Oval Office~! All Trump is doing is trying to keep his ass out of Jail.

-VR
Of course I don't want Trump as President.

But ask me if I want Harris and her equality of outcomes mantra (that we need to ensure that "we all end up in the same place" is something she's said dozens of times, and even Tweeted it multiple times. See, e.g., https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GKICnk2awAAa9pc?format=jpg&name=medium), which is barely dressed up socialist dogma.

I want neither one in office, and my confidence in the US government has dwindled almost to zero. That's why I'm so disengaged from this election while in the past I was a voracious consumer (and poster) of horserace analysis.

It's truly mind-numbing that with all the intelligent and talented people we have in this country, this is the best we can come up with for President.

Very Rusty
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@sh76 said
Of course I don't want Trump as President.

But ask me if I want Harris and her equality of outcomes mantra (that we need to ensure that "we all end up in the same place" is something she's said dozens of times, and even Tweeted it multiple times. See, e.g., https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GKICnk2awAAa9pc?format=jpg&name=medium), which is barely dressed up socialist dogma.

I wa ...[text shortened]... ent and talented people we have in this country, this is the best we can come up with for President.
That Sir is certainly your opinion and choice. Many would disagree with you about Harris I am sure. Being a Canadian, I would sooner see Harris as President than a convicted felon that Trump is. Only reason I believe he ran and this is my opinion was to keep his sorry ass out of jail. If he becomes President they can't lock him up.

-VR

sh76
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@Very-Rusty
===I believe he ran and this is my opinion was to keep his sorry ass out of jail. ===

If that were the case, they should have made a deal with him that he retires to Mar-a-Lago and stays out of politics for life and they drop all prosecutions against him.

Win-win

vivify
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@vivify said
China has become a major Russian ally. I'm not sure how much of the alliance involves military assistance but China recently tested an ICBM only a few days ago. This is their first such test since the 1980s. It's probably not a coincidence this test took place around the time Putin threatened nuclear warfare. What is clear is that N. Korea has a pact with Russia for military assistance.
I did all this building up of China as a military force and their newest nuclear submarine just sunk:

https://www.wsj.com/world/china/chinas-newest-nuclear-submarine-sank-setting-back-its-military-modernization-785b4d37

MB

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@sh76
"No American politician really has the wherewithal and the inclination to fight Russia"

That has already happened by proxy. Where do you think Ukraine is getting most of those weapons from? There are some weapons being provided to Ukraine that need assistance to use from NATO members. So technically we even have soldiers on the ground in Ukraine. Dude, that ship has already sailed.

It is the fact that many people (especially democrats) are openly saying Putin is bluffing (due to Putin's generous restraint) that I am convinced Putin is NOT bluffing this time. If Ukraine uses Storm Shadow missiles to strike deep inside Russia I think they will use a small tactical nuke on Ukraine just to show they will.

Putin does not have the option to bluff anymore. Nobody would take Putin seriously and he knows escalation will just get a lot worse and that is not an option. Putin would have to be an idiot to bluff again. He would be ridiculed on top of it. Nobody would respect him, especially me!

s
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@Metal-Brain
And YOU being a nice tame commie, RELISH the day when the Soviet empire lives again and the Ukraine war is just phase one of that push.
Moldavia and Poland would be next. The Russian assshole have already said that.
"When we invade Poland we won't be so nice as we are treating our Ukrainian brothers'' is what one Russian general said.
So kiss my ass you POS commie you have ZERO credibility here and always will.

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