27 May 09
Heard that North Korea is making several demands in exchange for giving up their nuclear program, including a promise from America not to attack them. Which is a little strange because for us to attack them we would have to have slam dunk proof that they have weapons of mass destruction. I mean, for Gods sakes people, we're not maniacs. It would have to be an air-tight case. We wouldn't just come in there and start bombing them ...
27 May 09
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Originally posted by ScriabinNot that we all can't do with a bit of mirth during the usual turgid news cycle, but is there any danger that by writing off their efforts as dismissively as most pundits are, we may inadvertently find ourselves in a critical situation where suddenly NK emerges with the capability of calling everyone's bluff and making an example of someone, just so that we finally take her seriously?
Also heard the bomb didn't really go off too well, just as the missiles they've launched all fell rather short of the mark. Then again, that's to be expected as all that stuff was made in Korea, of course.
27 May 09
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Originally posted by kmax87Yes, though some of the gags just now seemed very highly developed. They went right over my head. Like a North Korean rocket (if I was in Japan) (in the part of Japan the rocket went over) (the other time, not this time, which was an undergound test, I realise) (this thread is about that test. My gag is about the rocket, ok?). LOL. ROTFLMAO. LOL. LOL.
Not that we all can't do with a bit of mirth during the usual turgid news cycle...
27 May 09
Originally posted by no1marauderIt's an interesting fact that few people have an ability to assess risk properly. So I guess you aren't that different from most, no1m.
And following through with such a threat might possibly cause WWIII. To compare North Korea's importance to the US to Taiwan's to China shows an almost imbecilic view of world politics.
The Rapture will come soon enough; why are you right wing nuts in such a hurry?
The beautiful thing is that at the cost of only a few highly-publicized meetings between US and Taiwanese officials, the Chinese are threatened with looking impotent. Imagine people smirking because China was unable to rein in a tiny client state enough to make this issue go away -- NOT an image they could tolerate at this time.
Whether those meetings bore any real fruit is beside the point.
27 May 09
Originally posted by spruce112358You are certainly assessing risk insanely, not merely poorly.
It's an interesting fact that few people have an ability to assess risk properly. So I guess you aren't that different from most, no1m.
The beautiful thing is that at the cost of only a few highly-publicized meetings between US and Taiwanese officials, the Chinese are threatened with looking impotent. Imagine people smirking because China was unable ...[text shortened]... ould tolerate at this time.
Whether those meetings bore any real fruit is beside the point.
Besides the obvious fact, that NK isn't a "client state" of China and, in fact, Chinese influence over NK is quite limited, the most likely response by the Chinese to the scenario you are bouncing around would be actions directed toward Taiwan, not NK. What they "couldn't tolerate" was the US threatening them in their own backyard; if Kennedy wasn't going to accept nuclear weapons in Cuba why, o why, do you think the Chinese would accept nuclear weapons, controlled by the Taiwanese? The risk of war in your scenario would be very high.
So, in order to make an ineffectual gesture directed at NK, you'd be willing to risk pissing off the Chinese sufficiently to risk a general war with them. That's just plain nuts.
27 May 09
Originally posted by no1marauderYou are just being silly-stupid when you claim China has no influence on North Korea. Here's a quote from the Council on Foreign Relations, a non-partisan group founded in 1921:
You are certainly assessing risk insanely, not merely poorly.
Besides the obvious fact, that NK isn't a "client state" of China and, in fact, Chinese influence over NK is quite limited, the most likely response by the Chinese to the scenario you are bouncing around would be actions directed toward Taiwan, not NK. What they "couldn't tole ...[text shortened]... g off the Chinese sufficiently to risk a general war with them. That's just plain nuts.
"China is North Korea's most important ally, biggest trading partner, and main source of food, arms, and fuel. In the hope of avoiding regime collapse and an uncontrolled influx of refugees across its 800-mile border with North Korea, China has helped sustain Kim Jong-Il's regime and opposed harsh international economic sanctions. After Pyongyang tested a nuclear weapon in October 2006, experts say that China has reconsidered the nature of its alliance to include both pressure and inducements. But Beijing, arguably, continues to have more leverage over Pyongyang than any other nation and has played a central role in the ongoing Six-Party Talks, the multilateral framework aimed at denuclearizing North Korea."
So obviously, the key to pressuring North Korea is China.
As for the comparison to Cuba -- well, you make my case. Getting China's attention is the point -- at the same time remaining in the driver's seat. Talks could be carried out with Taiwan or South Korea itself or the Philippines -- or all at once.
Your pattern, though, seems to indicate someone with a thing for leftist strongmen (e.g. Chavez, Kim).
27 May 09
Originally posted by spruce112358I am trying to picture the possible real world uselfulness of any ven diagram that put Chavez and Kim in the same set or sub set. I can't. Unless it's more of this 3 day Masters Degree in Political Science that seems so popular in the U.S.
Your pattern, though, seems to indicate someone with a thing for leftist strongmen (e.g. Chavez, Kim).
27 May 09
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Originally posted by generalissimoCouple of ALCMS launched from a thousand miles off shore is all it would take. It's scare the hell out of Kim-shee and he'd want to play nice real quick.
You know what that means don't you?
It means Obama is going to have to attack N.Korea, lets hope he has the balls to do it.