152d
@Earl-of-Trumps saidMichigan leaning to Trump? I doubt it.
https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/electoral-college-map?game-id=2024-PG-CNN-ratings&game-view=map
Surprisingly, CNN says it's over, Trump wins 272 - 225 with more states to go.
270towin is more conservative with Trump up 37, but a long way to go to get to 270.
enjoy
There were a bunch of State polls released today for Arizona, Michigan, Nevada Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
They all said Trump has narrow leads there.
They also all said that the Democratic Senate candidates have leads of from 7 to 12 points.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls
Now you tell me this; when push comes to shove in November do you really expect 10 to 15% of voters casting a ballot for Gallegos in Arizona, or Slotkin in Michigan or Rosen in Nevada etc. etc. to turn around and vote for Donald Trump?
Be honest.
151d
@no1marauder saidCoattails are usually the other way around... the top of the ticket sways the bottom. You're assuming the tail will wag the dog.
Michigan leaning to Trump? I doubt it.
There were a bunch of State polls released today for Arizona, Michigan, Nevada Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
They all said Trump has narrow leads there.
They also all said that the Democratic Senate candidates have leads of from 7 to 12 points.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls
Now you tell me this; when pu ...[text shortened]... kin in Michigan or Rosen in Nevada etc. etc. to turn around and vote for Donald Trump?
Be honest.
Many would phrase the question as to whether Gallegos can really overcome a big Trump lead and still win.
@sh76 saidThat's a pretty unpersuasive dodge even for you.
Coattails are usually the other way around... the top of the ticket sways the bottom. You're assuming the tail will wag the dog.
Many would phrase the question as to whether Gallegos can really overcome a big Trump lead and still win.
What I'm suggesting is that Trump's lead is a transitory one based only on doubts about Biden, not any shift to a belief in Republican policy arguments. The last two years of elections have been pretty good for Democrats esp. in swing States. The Senate polls still reflect that and I suspect the Presidential ones will eventually.
EDIT: And popular candidates can have coattails; not ones with negative favorability ratings polling in the low 40s.
151d
we must keep our eye on this oddball result on Virginia, which Biden won by 10 in 2020
Washington Examiner:
Trump leads Biden by 3 points in Virginia poll: ‘Truly a battleground state’
Former President Donald Trump holds a narrow lead over President Joe Biden in must-win Virginia, according to a new poll.
A Virginia Commonwealth University-Wilder School poll shows Trump leading Biden 39%-36% in the Old Dominion. The survey was conducted among 806 adults in the commonwealth from June 24 through July 3,
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/trump-leads-biden-by-3-points-in-virginia-poll-truly-a-battleground-state/ar-BB1q640M?ocid=BingNewsSerp
@Earl-of-Trumps saidAgain, that poll shows Democrat Tim Kaine up by 11 points in the Senate race. In fact, Cao the Republican candidate gets 38% only 1% less than Trump. That suggests to me there is a lot of room for Biden to improve by simply getting Kaine voters (who are almost certainly 2020 Biden voters).
we must keep our eye on this oddball result on Virginia, which Biden won by 10 in 2020
Washington Examiner:
Trump leads Biden by 3 points in Virginia poll: ‘Truly a battleground state’
Former President Donald Trump holds a narrow lead over President Joe Biden in must-win Virginia, according to a new poll.
A Virginia Commonwealth University-Wilder School ...[text shortened]... mp-leads-biden-by-3-points-in-virginia-poll-truly-a-battleground-state/ar-BB1q640M?ocid=BingNewsSerp
And 39% is pathetic for a "leader" esp. since it is the same he got in the group's last poll in January with the difference being Biden has dropped 6 points. And at present, only 46% of Blacks said they would vote Biden (13.7% for Trump); not even you can be deluded enough to think that will approximate the November vote. https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2024/07/15/virginia-vcu-poll-biden-trump/
151d
@no1marauder
On multiple occasions I have seen Biden lose 19% of the black vote *that he had*, yes.
151d
@Earl-of-Trumps saidYou made similar claims in 2020 based on a few outlier polls.
@no1marauder
On multiple occasions I have seen Biden lose 19% of the black vote *that he had*, yes.
Biden will wind up smashing Trump by a wide margin among Black voters just like he did in 2020. Right wing wet dreams that Trump will get something like 25-30% of that vote will look foolish.
151d
@no1marauder saidOh, don't take me wrong. Biden will take the lion's share of the black vote, just not as much as before (2020)
You made similar claims in 2020 based on a few outlier polls.
Biden will wind up smashing Trump by a wide margin among Black voters just like he did in 2020. Right wing wet dreams that Trump will get something like 25-30% of that vote will look foolish.
151d
@no1marauder saidYou're drifting farther and farther into dreamland. That Dem Senate candidates are running far ahead of Biden is hardly a reason to be optimistic about Biden, who is right now, probably the worst candidate the Dems have run at least since 1972. (That Trump is such a bad candidate himself is the only reason he won't win 400 EV.)
That's a pretty unpersuasive dodge even for you.
What I'm suggesting is that Trump's lead is a transitory one based only on doubts about Biden, not any shift to a belief in Republican policy arguments. The last two years of elections have been pretty good for Democrats esp. in swing States. The Senate polls still reflect that and I suspect the Presidential ones will ev ...[text shortened]... r candidates can have coattails; not ones with negative favorability ratings polling in the low 40s.
Still think there's a 90% chance Biden wins? Would you like to give me 9:1 odds on a bet? Or even 3:1?
@Earl-of-Trumps saidHe doesn't need Virginia. If VA is competitive, the election is long over.
we must keep our eye on this oddball result on Virginia, which Biden won by 10 in 2020
Washington Examiner:
Trump leads Biden by 3 points in Virginia poll: ‘Truly a battleground state’
Former President Donald Trump holds a narrow lead over President Joe Biden in must-win Virginia, according to a new poll.
A Virginia Commonwealth University-Wilder School ...[text shortened]... mp-leads-biden-by-3-points-in-virginia-poll-truly-a-battleground-state/ar-BB1q640M?ocid=BingNewsSerp
The real truth is that it probably all comes down to Pennsylvania. It's very difficult to see the winner of PA losing the election, though if it's Trump, he has Wisconsin as a backup plan.
150d
@sh76 saidI'm not sure Biden will remain the Democratic candidate but I remain fairly confident that Trump will lose.
You're drifting farther and farther into dreamland. That Dem Senate candidates are running far ahead of Biden is hardly a reason to be optimistic about Biden, who is right now, probably the worst candidate the Dems have run at least since 1972. (That Trump is such a bad candidate himself is the only reason he won't win 400 EV.)
Still think there's a 90% chance Biden wins? Would you like to give me 9:1 odds on a bet? Or even 3:1?
That the Democratic candidates are winning comfortably in polls in swing States is a reason to doubt that this will be any type of realignment election. And with three months to go it's also a good reason to think that voters currently reluctant to support Biden (but not willing to support Trump as his constant showing in the low 40s in these polls show) will eventually come around to support the Democratic nominee like they did in 2020.
Sure, if Nikki Haley was running, I could see significant crossover voting and her being a solid favorite. But Trump remains unpopular and a truly lousy campaigner. He'll lose AGAIN.
90%? Probably not. But I might still give 3:1 odds if you wish.
150d
@sh76 saidAgreed. If Trump takes Virginia, it's all over.
He doesn't need Virginia. If VA is competitive, the election is long over.
The real truth is that it probably all comes down to Pennsylvania. It's very difficult to see the winner of PA losing the election, though if it's Trump, he has Wisconsin as a backup plan.
And, Penna?? Trump is leading in all the battleground states. And according to CNN, Trump already has 272 electoral votes.
Long way to go but I like Trump's position.
150d
@sh76 saidRepublicans got smashed in Pennsylvania two years ago running Trump endorsed candidates; Democrats even flipped the State House of Representatives.
He doesn't need Virginia. If VA is competitive, the election is long over.
The real truth is that it probably all comes down to Pennsylvania. It's very difficult to see the winner of PA losing the election, though if it's Trump, he has Wisconsin as a backup plan.
Trump is going to lose that State and Michigan meaning he has to hold every State he won plus flip Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia.