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@Earl-of-Trumps saidIt's Penn.
Agreed. If Trump takes Virginia, it's all over.
And, Penna?? Trump is leading in all the battleground states. And according to CNN, Trump already has 272 electoral votes.
Long way to go but I like Trump's position.
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@no1marauder saidGallegos, Slotkin, Kaine... you're talking Greek to me.
Maybe you guys could help me out and describe the voter who is going to vote for Tim Kaine (who votes with the administration 97% of the time) but then fill in a ballot for Donald Trump. Same with Gallegos, Slotkin, etc. etc.
All I can talk about at this point is the presidential race. It's clear, Trump has an edge
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@no1marauder saidNot in this reality.
Michigan leaning to Trump? I doubt it.
There were a bunch of State polls released today for Arizona, Michigan, Nevada Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
They all said Trump has narrow leads there.
They also all said that the Democratic Senate candidates have leads of from 7 to 12 points.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls
Now you tell me this; when pu ...[text shortened]... kin in Michigan or Rosen in Nevada etc. etc. to turn around and vote for Donald Trump?
Be honest.
AZ finally has early voting going on for their primaries. July 30.
Gallegos all the way, baby.
@Earl-of-Trumps saidI believe that all the states Trump won (including ME-2) in 2020 plus AZ, NV and GA is 268. He still needs one more state or NE-2 (which seems unlikely in a razor-thin election).
Agreed. If Trump takes Virginia, it's all over.
And, Penna?? Trump is leading in all the battleground states. And according to CNN, Trump already has 272 electoral votes.
Long way to go but I like Trump's position.
I don't think he can lose PA and WI and win Michigan, so I think he has to win either PA or WI.
If he is even in VA, he's already won PA in all likelihood.
The reason PA is so much more important than WI is that if he wins PA, he can lose GA or even lose NV AND AZ and still win.
So, Trump can lose PA and still win if he wins WI. But Biden needs PA or he's almost certainly toast.
Edit: According to Nate Silver's model, Maine (statewide) is actually a true toss-up, so it's possible that Maine could be an alternative path. But it's hard to see Trump losing Pennsylvania and winning Maine.
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@sh76 saidHow about this:
I believe that all the states Trump won (including ME-2) in 2020 plus AZ, NV and GA is 268. He still needs one more state or NE-2 (which seems unlikely in a razor-thin election).
I don't think he can lose PA and WI and win Michigan, so I think he has to win either PA or WI.
If he is even in VA, he's already won PA in all likelihood.
The reason PA is so much more importa ...[text shortened]... aine could be an alternative path. But it's hard to see Trump losing Pennsylvania and winning Maine.
My $50 to your $20 that Trump loses Pennsylvania in November? Loser to pay the amount to a non-political charity of the winner's choice.
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@no1marauder saidDeal, provided that we both name our charities now and that we can veto each other's selections. I don't want to have to argue in November about whether "Feeding those whose families have been displaced by Israeli Aggression" constitutes a political charity.
How about this:
My $50 to your $20 that Trump loses Pennsylvania in November? Loser to pay the amount to a non-political charity of the winner's choice.
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@Earl-of-Trumps saidAssuming he gets the states he won in 2002 plus AZ, NV and GA (certainly not guaranteed, but that's the assumption we're making), he doesn't need 19. He only needs 2.
@sh76
I don't know, man. Maine does not sound like a good plan B, Maine - 4 electoral votes, Pennsylvania - 19
Penna is a big-ass state,
Maine is probably not much of a plan, since if he's even in Maine, he's probably already won Pennsylvania. But if you're searching for a way to make this election about something other than PA and WI, at least Maine can be in the discussion.
@sh76 saidYou should know me well enough to realize I wouldn't play such a game.
Deal, provided that we both name our charities now and that we can veto each other's selections. I don't want to have to argue in November about whether "Feeding those whose families have been displaced by Israeli Aggression" constitutes a political charity.
Mine's a local Boys and Girl's club.https://www.bgccapitalarea.org/
You don't have to tell me yours now.
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@Earl-of-Trumps said2 big cities, the rest of the state is mainly rural.
@sh76
I don't know, man. Maine does not sound like a good plan B, Maine - 4 electoral votes, Pennsylvania - 19
Penna is a big-ass state,
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@sh76 saidExcept AZ and GA are clearly still in play. So that's 27 more.
I believe that all the states Trump won (including ME-2) in 2020 plus AZ, NV and GA is 268. He still needs one more state or NE-2 (which seems unlikely in a razor-thin election).
I don't think he can lose PA and WI and win Michigan, so I think he has to win either PA or WI.
If he is even in VA, he's already won PA in all likelihood.
The reason PA is so much more importa ...[text shortened]... aine could be an alternative path. But it's hard to see Trump losing Pennsylvania and winning Maine.
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@no1marauder saidOkay, we have a deal.
You should know me well enough to realize I wouldn't play such a game.
Mine's a local Boys and Girl's club.https://www.bgccapitalarea.org/
You don't have to tell me yours now.
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@Suzianne saidI'd also guess NV could be in play as well. But for Biden to lose PA and win, he'd have to win GA and either AZ or NV. It's possible, but unlikely. If Biden is doing well enough to win GA and either AZ or NV, he's probably won PA as well.
Except AZ and GA are clearly still in play. So that's 27 more.
It's possible that Trump and Vance will do so well among working class midwestern whites that they'll do better in WI and PA than in GA and AZ, which is why GA is still a possible tipping point state. But it's unlikely.
If you asked me now, I'd say that if Trump wins PA, he has a 95% chance of winning and if Biden wins PA, then Biden has an 85% chance of winning (because WI is at least a decent backup option for Trump).
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@sh76 said538 still has Biden a slight favorite despite present polls. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo
I'd also guess NV could be in play as well. But for Biden to lose PA and win, he'd have to win GA and either AZ or NV. It's possible, but unlikely. If Biden is doing well enough to win GA and either AZ or NV, he's probably won PA as well.
It's possible that Trump and Vance will do so well among working class midwestern whites that they'll do better in WI and PA than in ...[text shortened]... , then Biden has an 85% chance of winning (because WI is at least a decent backup option for Trump).
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@sh76 saidI'm not sure if Vance adds anything electorally to the ticket; in 2022, his margin of victory in Ohio was far less than every other statewide Republican.https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Ohio_elections
I'd also guess NV could be in play as well. But for Biden to lose PA and win, he'd have to win GA and either AZ or NV. It's possible, but unlikely. If Biden is doing well enough to win GA and either AZ or NV, he's probably won PA as well.
It's possible that Trump and Vance will do so well among working class midwestern whites that they'll do better in WI and PA than in ...[text shortened]... , then Biden has an 85% chance of winning (because WI is at least a decent backup option for Trump).