@mott-the-hoople saidWTF?????
no, the rate of spread in 2020 is not relevant to the rate of spread in 2022...you got caught again
The study you used also referred to 2020 data.
@mott-the-hoople saidSO what? That doesn't even remotely prove that these things were related to the lockdowns; they might be simply related to the pandemic itself.
why did you ignore this while cherry picking the article?
'From May 2020 to April 2021, the U.S. recorded 100,306 drug overdose deaths, a 28.5% increase from the 78,056 deaths that were recorded in the previous 12-month period, according to CDC data.
A study from the National Commission on COVID-19 and Criminal Justice last year found that domestic violence i ...[text shortened]... urnal of Applied Economics, not a medical journal."
number crunching, nothing to do with medicine
Show me data showing that States with lockdowns had a higher increase in these things than States with no lockdowns.
EDIT: And I thought all those drug overdose deaths were caused by Biden's border policies according to you!
@no1marauder saidAllow me to caution all who dare open up with outdated data. I been there w Marauder, I was bloodied up!
WTF?????
The study you used also referred to 2020 data.
I picture a bank of monitors, and his lexis nexus, at the ready!!
@averagejoe1 saidHow is data regarding the period lockdowns were in effect "outdated" to the claims that they were ineffective?
Allow me to caution all who dare open up with outdated data. I been there w Marauder, I was bloodied up!
I picture a bank of monitors, and his lexis nexus, at the ready!!
@athousandyoung saidA discussion from Prof Neil Ferguson, Director of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, Imperial College London regarding the "unpublished non peer reviewed study":
The above linked paper by no1 focuses on epidemic doubling time, while Mott's linked paper focuses on mortality, which probably explains seemingly divergent conclusions.
"First, the policies which comprised “lockdown” varied dramatically between countries, meaning defining the term is problematic. In their new report, Herby et al appear to define lockdown as imposition of one or more mandatory non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs); by that definition, the UK has been in permanent lockdown since 16th of March 2021, and remains in lockdown – given it remain compulsory for people with diagnosed COVID-19 to self-isolate for at least 5 days.
“A second and more important issue is that the statistical methods used to estimate the impact of NPIs using observational data need to be appropriate. Such interventions are intended to reduce contact rates between individuals in a population, so their primary impact, if effective, is on transmission rates. Impacts on hospitalisation and mortality are delayed, in some cases by several weeks. In addition, such measures were generally introduced (or intensified) during periods where governments saw rapidly growing hospitalisations and deaths. Hence mortality immediately following the introduction of lockdowns is generally substantially higher than before. Neither is lockdown a single event as some of the studies feeding into this meta-analysis assume; the duration of the intervention needs to be accounted for when assessing its impact."
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/[WORD TOO LONG]/
These are all serious flaws rendering the study suspect.
A more caustic appraisal by Dr Seth Flaxman, Associate Professor in the Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford:
"
“Smoking causes cancer, the earth is round, and ordering people to stay at home (the correct definition of lockdown) decreases disease transmission. None of this is controversial among scientists. A study purporting to prove the opposite is almost certain to be fundamentally flawed.
“In this case, a trio of economists have undertaken a meta-analysis of many previous studies. So far so good. But they systematically excluded from consideration any study based on the science of disease transmission, meaning that the only studies looked at in the analysis are studies using the methods of economics. These do not include key facts about disease transmission such as: later lockdowns are less effective than earlier lockdowns, because many people are already infected; lockdowns do not immediately save lives, because there’s a lag from infection to death, so to see the effect of lockdowns on Covid deaths we need to wait about two or three weeks. (This was all known in March 2020 – we discussed it in a paper released that month, and later published in Nature. Our paper is excluded from consideration in this meta-analysis.)
“It’s as if we wanted to know whether smoking causes cancer and so we asked a bunch of new smokers: did you have cancer the day before you started smoking? And what about the day after? If we did this, obviously we’d incorrectly conclude smoking is unrelated to cancer, but we’d be ignoring basic science. The science of diseases and their causes is complex, and it has a lot of surprises for us, but there are appropriate methods to study it, and inappropriate methods. This study intentionally excludes all studies rooted in epidemiology–the science of disease."
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/[WORD TOO LONG]/
@mott-the-hoople saidYou might as well say:
why did you ignore this while cherry picking the article?
'From May 2020 to April 2021, the U.S. recorded 100,306 drug overdose deaths, a 28.5% increase from the 78,056 deaths that were recorded in the previous 12-month period, according to CDC data.
A study from the National Commission on COVID-19 and Criminal Justice last year found that domestic violence i ...[text shortened]... urnal of Applied Economics, not a medical journal."
number crunching, nothing to do with medicine
In 2020, the US had a 23% increase in excess deaths. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/04/210405175612.htm
The US had "lockdowns" (as poorly and inaccurately defined in the John Hopkins study) for most of 2020 in most of its area.
Therefore, "lockdowns" caused the increase in excess deaths.
Of course, that conclusion is obvious nonsense - just like Mott's suggested conclusions.
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@no1marauder saidThat's a fair question..........
How is data regarding the period lockdowns were in effect "outdated" to the claims that they were ineffective?
Gonna' answer?
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@no1marauder saidEXCELLENT.....10 Thumbs up~!
A more caustic appraisal by Dr Seth Flaxman, Associate Professor in the Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford:
"
“Smoking causes cancer, the earth is round, and ordering people to stay at home (the correct definition of lockdown) decreases disease transmission. None of this is controversial among scientists. A study purporting to prove the opposi ...[text shortened]... t-the-impact-of-lockdowns-as-posted-on-the-john-hopkins-krieger-school-of-arts-and-sciences-website/
@averagejoe1 saidhe is an idiot, no use arguing with him
Allow me to caution all who dare open up with outdated data. I been there w Marauder, I was bloodied up!
I picture a bank of monitors, and his lexis nexus, at the ready!!
he is really screaming now that he got caught trying to use outdated numbers
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@mott-the-hoople saidOdd, usually it's you and joe who do the screaming. And announce it, too.
he is really screaming now
Oh, wait... you're still screaming and marauder is merely patiently pointing out that you're being dishonest again.
@shallow-blue saidits really cute seeing you libs take up for one another, its telling me you think they are weak and need your help
Odd, usually it's you and joe who do the screaming. And announce it, too.
Oh, wait... you're still screaming and marauder is merely patiently pointing out that you're being dishonest again.
@Mott-The-Hoople
You want to come to my house and find out just how weak we are?
`141 center st. Slatington.
Come on up, we can figure it all out.
You are a POS always was and always will be.
And a coward too. I HATE people who want to kill the US and you are one of them.
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@mott-the-hoople saidCan't argue with FACTS.
dont turn loose of that coat tail jimmi98
😂
You ought to try using them.
😛