01 Feb 11
1 edit
Originally posted by dryhumpSo you are saying you define a miracle as something that is improbable? Yet interestingly you do not want to discuss probability and you 'see [miracles] everywhere'. Surely if something occurs frequently but seems improbable then it is likely that your understanding of probability that is at fault and not an outright violation of probability. Maybe your assumption that things should occur according to probability laws is incorrect.
I don't want to get into a discussion about probablility after the fact, but it's pretty freaking amazing that he just happened to be standing in the exact right spot to come through it alive.
For example: if I place 100 dice on the table each with a 'six' face up, can I claim that the result (100 sixes in a row) is so improbable as to be a miracle, or is it the case that we are using the wrong probability formula?
Most importantly, if you see miracles everywhere, isn't it about time you stopped getting 'freaking amazed'?
02 Feb 11
Originally posted by dryhumpYour comment is debatable at least as follows.
One foot to the left or right, according to the program I watched, and that window washer gets crushed up like a tin can. We're talking about one step. I don't want to get into a discussion about probablility after the fact, but it's pretty freaking amazing that he just happened to be standing in the exact right spot to come through it alive. If you don't believe in miracles there's nothing I'm going to say to convince you.
There is a "right spot" on which he would be saved. This is indeed amazing but apprently there is an explanation as to why that spot works out as it does.
There are a finite number of spots available on this platform. Just how many? Whatever, the odds of being on the right spot are probably quite modest because the size of the platform is quite modest.
So the odds are not really amazing at all. Only surprising if you never knew about that special surivival spot. But now we know, so it's no miracle. Just lucky.
02 Feb 11
So would this count as a miracle?
In the 1970s or 80s (can't remember..)...a suicidal architect decided to jump in front of a train. He jumped from about 200m away.Then just a yard away from collision a passenger goes mad and pulls emergency brakes. --Is it a miracle?
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02 Feb 11
Originally posted by twhiteheadThere's another rebuttal available. If you throw a die a hundred times, the probability of getting, say, six sixes in a row is much higher than if you just throw the die six times. Think about a typical day on earth. If we could look at all the incidents occurring around the world every day, where someone might, or might not, be standing, or sitting, or walking, or driving, exactly as is necessary to avoid a bus hitting him or his cat tripping him on the stairs or whatever calamity would otherwise have occurred, it is HIGHLY PROBABLE that we will see at least one highly improbable incident. In fact, such incidents might not even be noticed by the people involved. How do we know that the person we cursed for taking his time when the light changed, isn't unknowingly responsible for the fact that we didn't get hit by a car a block later? Specifying in advance which incident it will be has low odds of success, but finding an incident that some call miraculous, happens all the time.
So you are saying you define a miracle as something that is improbable? Yet interestingly you do not want to discuss probability and you 'see [miracles] everywhere'. Surely if something occurs frequently but seems improbable then it is likely that your understanding of probability that is at fault and not an outright violation of probability. Maybe your a ...[text shortened]... f you see miracles everywhere, isn't it about time you stopped getting 'freaking amazed'?
03 Feb 11
Originally posted by JS357And the poster admitted knowing that. My point was that he essentially admits that a certain class of events happen frequently and are expected to do so based on probability theory - but he still finds them 'freaking amazing' because when looked at in isolation after the fact they seem highly improbable.
Specifying in advance which incident it will be has low odds of success, but finding an incident that some call miraculous, happens all the time.
He admits his argument is wrong, but wishes to use it anyway - and does not want to get into a discussion about it.