29 Jul 21
@sh76 saidI suppose you believe that herd immunity has always been a lie.
==If about 1/3 are rhinoviruses, what are the other 2/3?===
Coronaviruses, RSV, influenza and parainfluenza viruses, mainly.
Fine. Just take cold-causing rinoviruses. We're never getting herd immunity to them either, for the same reasons we're not getting herd immunity to COVID.
SARS-COV-2 has only been with us for a couple of years, at most. It will evolve into varian ...[text shortened]... int, unless politics prevent this from happening, we'll probably be calling it a version of the flu.
@eladar saidHerd immunity is a fact when applied to pathogens susceptible to herd immunity. Examples include Smallpox and Polio.
I suppose you believe that herd immunity has always been a lie.
Herd immunity is not achievable with regard to respiratory coronaviruses because they mutate too quickly.
29 Jul 21
@sh76 saidI have seen experts who claim that natural immunity will cover variants since the variants are actually not very different from the original. The body still recognizes it and attacks it.
Herd immunity is a fact when applied to pathogens susceptible to herd immunity. Examples include Smallpox and Polio.
Herd immunity is not achievable with regard to respiratory coronaviruses because they mutate too quickly.
30 Jul 21
@eladar saidBrazil had tens of thousands of reinfection cases. Aside from the Times article I cite below, I have heard first hand reports from Brazil about huge outbreaks amongst previously infected areas and populations.
I have seen experts who claim that natural immunity will cover variants since the variants are actually not very different from the original. The body still recognizes it and attacks it.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/01/health/covid-19-coronavirus-brazil-variant.html
I'm not saying being infected doesn't provide some protection. It surely does; but I don't think the evidence indicates that the protection is complete.
30 Jul 21
@sh76 saidIf the natural immunity was not effective you would be seeing a much greater reinfection rate.
Brazil had tens of thousands of reinfection cases. Aside from the Times article I cite below, I have heard first hand reports from Brazil about huge outbreaks amongst previously infected areas and populations.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/01/health/covid-19-coronavirus-brazil-variant.html
I'm not saying being infected doesn't provide some protection. It surely does; but I don't think the evidence indicates that the protection is complete.
It is not perfect, but I do not think it ever has been. The reinvention rate is relatively low and only now when the hype is on that it gets mentioned.
02 Aug 21
@sh76 saidThis is why we have to keep getting vaccinated and observe some other containment measures like mask wearing and social distancing way into the future
I said I'd do this in another thread, but I'll try to make this as short as possible.
The herd immunity threshold is 1 - 1/r where r is the spread rate. As a simple example, if r is 2 (meaning each infected person infects 2 others on average), then the HIT is 1 - 1/2 = 50%. If 50% of the people are immune, then one of the 2 people to whom an average person would spready it to ...[text shortened]... s being stressed in a given area), non-pharmaceutic interventions merely kick the can down the road.
Or at least until the the anti vaxxers fall prey to Darwinian theory.
02 Aug 21
@no1marauder saidHuh, Don't find that anywhere. The only data I find says, " nothing to see here folks.
Like most of Eladar's COVID claims, the idea that most of those who died from the disease would have died shortly anyway has been throughly debunked.
In fact, the death rate in the US increased by 15% in 2020 almost exactly mirroring the number of COVID19 fatalities.https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2021/03/10/cdc-finds-covid-19-drove-15-percent-spike-in-death-rate-475219
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-of-deaths-per-year?country=~USA
02 Aug 21
@no1marauder saidApart from saying that there is expected to be a 15% increase in the death rate, the post you quote from disproves itself.
Like most of Eladar's COVID claims, the idea that most of those who died from the disease would have died shortly anyway has been throughly debunked.
In fact, the death rate in the US increased by 15% in 2020 almost exactly mirroring the number of COVID19 fatalities.https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2021/03/10/cdc-finds-covid-19-drove-15-percent-spike-in-death-rate-475219
U.S deaths in 2019 were 2.91M so a 15% increase would be 3.3465M in 2020, yet it was only 2.96M. Of course your site does quote "over" 3m, still, 3.3465M is a bit more than "over".
02 Aug 21
@jimmac saidMaybe you should read the top of the graph:
Huh, Don't find that anywhere. The only data I find says, " nothing to see here folks.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-of-deaths-per-year?country=~USA
"After 2019 the medium variant of the UN population projections are shown."
So that's a pre-COVID projection, not the number of actual deaths.
02 Aug 21
@jimmac said" In 2020, approximately 3,358,814 deaths† occurred in the United States."
Apart from saying that there is expected to be a 15% increase in the death rate, the post you quote from disproves itself.
U.S deaths in 2019 were 2.91M so a 15% increase would be 3.3465M in 2020, yet it was only 2.96M. Of course your site does quote "over" 3m, still, 3.3465M is a bit more than "over".
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7014e1.htm
02 Aug 21
1 edit
@eladar said"Highly unlikely" is not a quantitative term and is useless for a global analysis.
@sh76
If you get COVID without being vaccinated being hospitalized or getting killed is highly unlikely.
No reason to believe that after you have gotten sick and recovered you will not become immune to covid and it's variants. Studies say that natural immunity is at least 90 percent effective at producing immunity.
If 1 in 100 who get Covid die of Covid (and that doesn't seem far off for unvaccinated), that could be considered "highly unlikely" for an individual to die. And if we add hospitalizations, it seems to be far worse. But also, the global results could be categorized as "catastrophic".
And I know there are those who consider themselves freedom lovers who think we should all conduct "business as usual" through the pandemic and let those who die die. But it would help if everyone understood that that is NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. People are not going to live their regular lives when so many are dying of Covid around them. It doesn't matter if the government imposes no lockdowns, many people are going to live a more isolated life (and dampen the economy). And as long as citizens are inclined to blame their government for number of Covid deaths, most places are going to impose some restrictions. If our only plan is to with that weren't true, well, that's not a plan.