24 Jul 19
@humy said" The prediction isn't that each hurricane will become stronger than the last one but rather there would be a general long-term trend of more frequent severe hurricanes."
The science says droughts would become generally more frequent as global climate temperatures increase due to greater weather variability that is caused by those higher temperatures.Name one hurricane in recent history that was stronger than the great hurricane of 1780Irrelevant; The prediction isn't that each hurricane will become stronger than the last one b ...[text shortened]... bly greatly weather variability that includes a general long-term trend of more frequent heat waves.
That is a lie! The science shows the opposite is true. Stop repeating lies! Ignorance is no excuse.
24 Jul 19
3 edits
@metal-brain saidShow your source...
" The prediction isn't that each hurricane will become stronger than the last one but rather there would be a general long-term trend of more frequent severe hurricanes."
That is a lie! The science shows the opposite is true.
Although the scientific jury is still out on whether the frequency of hurricanes regardless of their strength would increase, there is good evidence and thus a general consensus that warmer global temperatures will increase the frequency of the more severe hurricanes.
Here is just some of my sources;
https://www.ucsusa.org/global-warming/science-and-impacts/impacts/hurricanes-and-climate-change.html
"...Recent research in this area suggests that there has been an increase in intense hurricane activity over the past 40 years.
...
One 2005 peer-reviewed study showed a large increase in the number of North American hurricanes that reach Categories 4 and 5 when comparing the most recent 15-year period to the prior 15-year period.
...
Human-made global warming creates conditions that increase the chances of extreme weather. In some ocean basins, the intensification of hurricanes over time has been linked to rising ocean temperatures. Since 1970, sea surface temperatures worldwide have warmed by about an average of 0.1°C per decade.
...
Hurricanes require high humidity, relatively constant winds at different altitudes, and can occur when surface ocean temperatures exceed about 79°F (26°C). The rising of warm, moist air from the ocean helps to power the storm.
...
warm air holds more water vapor than cold air—and the rising air temperatures since the 1970s have caused the atmospheric water vapor content to rise as well. This increased moisture provides additional fuel for hurricanes. Climate models project an increase in the average precipitation rate of hurricanes as a result of global warming.
...
when scientists put the pieces together, they project that in general, hurricanes will become more intense in a warming world, with higher wind speeds and greater levels of precipitation.
..."
https://skepticalscience.com/hurricanes-global-warming.htm
"So far, all we’ve managed is to document here is what we don’t know for sure yet. But we do know there is extra energy in the system now, so could it have any other effects on tropical storms? Here, the science is far less equivocal, and there is a broad consensus that storms are increasing in strength, or severity. This attribute, called the Power Dissipation Index, measures the duration and intensity (wind speed) of storms, and research has found that since the mid-1970s, there has been an increase in the energy of storms.
Recent research has shown that we are experiencing more storms with higher wind speeds, and these storms will be more destructive, last longer and make landfall more frequently than in the past. Because this phenomenon is strongly associated with sea surface temperatures, it is reasonable to suggest a strong probability that the increase in storm intensity and climate change are linked..."
@humy saidI did more than once and you know it. Show yours.
Show your source...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2012/09/05/dont-believe-the-global-warmists-major-hurricanes-are-less-frequent/#7f441ca7f4de
https://science.howstuffworks.com/nature/natural-disasters/hurricane2.htm
@metal-brain saidSo were did you show that the science says a warmer climate won't increase the frequency of the stronger hurricanes?
I did more than once and you know it.
I have just shown you my sources that show that science says with evidence that a warmer climate will probably increase the frequency of the stronger hurricanes and why we have good reasons to think it would but you have yet to show us the contrary.
I tried opening your first link but it want work for me because the ads almost immediately block the content from my view but I did get enough a glimpse of it to see it didn't appear to be a scientific website but rather someone merely expressing his personal layperson opinion. In other words, it doesn't show what the science says.
Nothing in your second link confirms what you said but does confirm some of what I said with; "...You never hear about hurricanes hitting Alaska. That's because hurricanes develop in warm, tropical regions where the water is at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit (27 degrees Celsius). The storms also require moist air and converging equatorial winds...." which, just like in my links, indicate that, with all else being kept equal, a warmer world would tend to have more intense hurricanes. So why did you show that link? What did YOU think that link said? Or didn't you even bother to read it?
25 Jul 19
1 edit
@metal-brain saidNot at all. Have you ever been to Texas or Mexico in the summer? Iowa is a much smaller state but produces more food.
Yes, the growing season is longer. That is reality.
See this report: https://www.pnas.org/content/114/35/9326
Do you have any data to show that warmer areas are more productive? It seems like the temperate regions of the globe are vastly more productive. That region is shifting north (and south) which contains less land mass. It doesn't seem like there's any information beyond speculation that supports the position that warmer climates are more agriculturally productive.
25 Jul 19
@humy saidFrom the link below:
So were did you show that the science says a warmer climate won't increase the frequency of the stronger hurricanes?
I have just shown you my sources that show that science says with evidence that a warmer climate will probably increase the frequency of the stronger hurricanes and why we have good reasons to think it would but you have yet to show us the contrary.
I tried o ...[text shortened]... why did you show that link? What did YOU think that link said? Or didn't you even bother to read it?
"A hurricane builds energy as it moves across the ocean, sucking up warm, moist tropical air from the surface and dispensing cooler air aloft.
Well, as we know, warm, moist air from the ocean's surface begins to rise rapidly. As it rises, its water vapor condenses to form storm clouds and droplets of rain. The condensation releases heat called latent heat of condensation. This latent heat warms the cool air, causing it to rise. This rising air is replaced by more warm, humid air from the ocean below. And the cycle continues, drawing more warm, moist air into the developing storm and moving heat from the surface to the atmosphere. This exchange of heat creates a pattern of wind that circulates around a center, like water going down a drain."
https://science.howstuffworks.com/nature/natural-disasters/hurricane.htm
I'll explain it in simple terms since you are slow to catch on.
Evaporation + condensation = hurricane
Evaporation only = no hurricane
@metal-brain saidSo what? That confirms part of what I just said and is partly what I said and there is nothing there that contradicts what I just said.
From the link below:
"A hurricane builds energy as it moves across the ocean, sucking up warm, moist tropical air from the surface and dispensing cooler air aloft.
Well, as we know, warm, moist air from the ocean's surface begins to rise rapidly. As it rises, its water vapor condenses to form storm clouds and droplets of rain. The condensation releases heat calle ...[text shortened]... of heat creates a pattern of wind that circulates around a center, like water going down a drain."
Evaporation + condensation = hurricaneSo what? Are you saying a warmer world there wouldn't be more condensation as well as more evaporation? If so, extremely basic physics tells us otherwise. If globally an average X amount of water evaporates into the atmosphere then that same average X amount of water must then condensate out of the atmosphere. That's just how the water cycle works.
Evaporation only = no hurricane
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_cycle
Do you deny this? How can there be continually and sustainably be X evaporating into the global atmosphere but a much smaller quantity much less than that X amount continually and sustainably being condensating out of the global atmosphere without the difference in that mass of water magically vanishing out of existence? If the water doesn't magically cease to exist, how can there be continually and sustainably more water entering into the atmosphere than leaving the atmosphere without eventually a physically impossible amount of water ending up in the atmosphere?
And, since the amount of water evaporating globally and the amount of water condensating globally will BOTH increase in a warming world, we would very rationally expect a greater frequency of stronger hurricanes as there would be more fuel for them. And I have shown you links explaining the recent evidence showing and confirming this is indeed what is happening while you have failed to show links explaining any evidence to the contrary.
@humy saidI am about to repeat myself again because you never listen. The tropic oceans are always warm during hurricane season. The warmth is always there during hurricane season.
So what? That confirms part of what I just said and is partly what I said and there is nothing there that contradicts what I just said.Evaporation + condensation = hurricaneSo what? Are you saying a warmer world there wouldn't be more condensation as well as more evaporation? If so, extremely basic physics tells us otherwis ...[text shortened]... ndeed what is happening while you have failed to show links explaining any evidence to the contrary.
Evaporation only = no hurricane
If warmth of the water alone was enough there would be never ending hurricanes and PR would be uninhabitable during hurricane season. Fortunately this is not what causes hurricanes to form.
A colder upper atmosphere is the variable needed for a hurricane to form and that happens more often in a colder climate than a warm one. That is why hurricanes are more frequent in a colder climate and less in a warmer climate.
"Are you saying a warmer world there wouldn't be more condensation as well as more evaporation? If so, extremely basic physics tells us otherwise."
Yes, that is exactly what I am saying. Basic physics does NOT tell us otherwise. You are making crap up again.
You have been duped by yourself because of confirmation bias.
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/science-choice/201504/what-is-confirmation-bias
"Once we have formed a view, we embrace information that confirms that view while ignoring, or rejecting, information that casts doubt on it. Confirmation bias suggests that we don’t perceive circumstances objectively. We pick out those bits of data that make us feel good because they confirm our prejudices."
"In sum, people are prone to believe what they want to believe. Seeking to confirm our beliefs comes naturally, while it feels strong and counterintuitive to look for evidence that contradicts our beliefs. This explains why opinions survive and spread. Disconfirming instances are far more powerful in establishing the truth. Disconfirmation would require looking for evidence to disprove it."
"For group decision-making, it is crucial to obtain information from each member in a way that they are independent. For example, as part of a police procedure to derive the most reliable information from multiple witnesses to a crime, witnesses are not allowed to discuss it prior to giving their testimony. The goal is to prevent unbiased witnesses from influencing each other. It is known that Abraham Lincoln intentionally filled his cabinet with rival politicians who had extremely different ideologies. When making decisions, Lincoln always encouraged vigorous debate and discussion."
You are claiming science says something it does not.
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/video/killer-hurricanes
Here is an excerpt from the link above:
NARRATOR: And looking even further back in time, scientists are discovering that 1,000 years ago, major Atlantic hurricanes may have struck more often.
The program goes on to confirm this.
"NARRATOR: But these findings present a puzzle. 1780, the year of the Great Hurricane, falls in the generally colder period of the Little Ice Age.
JEFF DONNELLY: It appears, at first flush, to be quite an anomaly that this 1780 season, and actually that a couple of decades around it, are actually one of the most active intervals.
NARRATOR: But as Jeff looked more closely at the sea surface temperatures, he was able to detect a brief but noticeable spike in the decades around 1780. And cool temperatures in the atmosphere above with warm ocean water below is a known ingredient for hurricane formation.
KERRY EMANUEL: And whenever you have two bodies of very different temperatures, you can create a lot of energy that way.
JEFF DONNELLY: So, that might explain why, in the middle of the Little Ice Age, we see, you know, an increase in hurricane activity."
Watch it before you make any more false assertions about science. Your links are gossip and nothing more. You accepted it because of confirmation bias.
@metal-brain saidSo what? We already all know that, thanks.
The tropic oceans are always warm during hurricane season. The warmth is always there during hurricane season.
If warmth of the water alone was enough ... Fortunately this is not what causes hurricanes to form.Straw man; Where did I say/imply warming ALONE is what causes hurricanes? I didn't and I never believed this.
A colder upper atmosphere is the variable needed for a hurricane to form and that happens more often in a colder climate than a warm one. That is why hurricanes are more frequent in a colder climate and less in a warmer climate.Apparently you cannot read. As I said before, because of the current conflicting evidence on this, the scientific jury is still out over what effect of global warming would increase or decrease the frequency of hurricanes (ignoring their strength) and I will show your some links showing that on request. But I never claimed/implied it would necessarily increase that frequency. The rest of your post is just all straw man because it makes out I said/implied the contrary to that.
But, as I said before, unlike with the effect on the frequency of hurricanes (ignoring their strength), and backed up by good evidence there IS a general scientific consensus that warmer global temperatures will increase the frequency of the more severe hurricanes (i.e. the higher category).
I have shown you the science links that explain that and you have yet to show any science links that contradict them or anything I said.
Here is what I said yet again;
"...Although the scientific jury is still out on whether the frequency of hurricanes regardless of their strength would increase, there is good evidence and thus a general consensus that warmer global temperatures will increase the frequency of the more severe hurricanes. ..."
Which part of the above do you not understand or pretend to not understand?
I proved hurricanes were more frequent when the climate was colder. They were also more powerful due to the contrast of warm water and a colder upper atmosphere. This contrast is greater in a cooler climate. This explains why cooler climates have more hurricanes very logically.
There is absolutely no evidence hurricanes are worse with a warmer climate. It is a false assertion proven wrong by scientific data. The opposite is true.
Now the alarmists must face the fact a warmer climate produces less destructive storms. They also must face the fact they could not have been more wrong. A cooler climate would make destructive storms worse, not better. The science proves that. Climate models (fancy guesses) do not. That is why liars always resort to climate models in the end. The unreliable climate models are all they have left to if they are going to continue to cling onto their religion, a religion that rejects science.
Notice how all the alarmists resort to confirmation bias, then they reject anything that proves them wrong and claim the jury is still out despite all the scientific evidence!
It is common sense, if you want to know the facts about hurricanes you ask an expert on hurricanes. You do not take the word of an alarmist who does not know the first thing about how hurricanes form.
The alarmists have been proven wrong again. They will never accept their alarmism is wrong though. No matter how many times they are proven wrong they go deeper in denial and embrace their anti-science religion even more.
Notice this quote by humy:
"backed up by good evidence there IS a general scientific consensus that warmer global temperatures will increase the frequency of the more severe hurricanes (i.e. the higher category)."
If he is talking about a scientific consensus from hurricane experts he is lying. There is no such consensus from the experts, just the misinformed general population who know next to nothing about hurricanes and accept whatever they hear the most. In other words, rumor.
It is their religion. They reject science in favor of rumor.
25 Jul 19
2 edits
@metal-brain saidNo, you haven't. And it wouldn't make any difference if you had because that was not my argument but your straw man. Which part of "Although the scientific jury is still out on whether the frequency of hurricanes regardless of their strength would increase,..." do you STILL pretend to not understand?
I proved hurricanes were more frequent when the climate was colder.
"backed up by good evidence there IS a general scientific consensus that warmer global temperatures will increase the frequency of the more severe hurricanes (i.e. the higher category)."
If he is talking about a scientific consensus from hurricane experts he is lying.
I just showed you the links that show that is the scientific consensus from hurricane experts. Apparently you cannot read. See my above posts with their links.
25 Jul 19
2 edits
Slightly off-topic;
I have just heard on the news that this day is the hottest day on record for July in the UK and it certainly feels like it to me as I am finding it pretty much unbearable. Its just torture. So I am really glad the forecast for tomorrow is for much cooler weather. This, of course, is weather, not climate. But we would expect a greater frequency of such record temperatures in the future as the climate warms.
25 Jul 19
@humy saidliar. stop lying. lie. lie. liar.
Slightly off-topic;
I have just heard on the news that this day is the hottest day on record for July in the UK and it certainly feels like it to me as I am finding it pretty much unbearable. Its just torture. So I am really glad the forecast for tomorrow is for much cooler weather. This, of course, is weather, not climate. But we would expect a greater frequency of such record temperatures in the future as the climate warms.
Fred singer says the vikings were very productive when it was hot outside.
Corn grows better when it's oppressively hot. See: Mexico.
Precipitation will increase when the world warms but storms and hurricanes won't.
CO2 is cooling the planet.
Coal doesn't cause black lung disease, which hasn't killed >76,000 people since 1968.
If polls don't get 100% participation they are invalid.
Experimental modeling is wrong because it isn't real.
Nuclear power is dangerous.