17 Dec 12
Originally posted by tomtom232You're crazy. Alex Smith rarely even attempts those passes. He was dead last in the league in pass attempts over 15 yards, and 29th in pass attempts over 10.
A strong run game opens up the deep ball.
Thats why it is the Patriots weakness, because they have poor Dbacks. Any defensive back in the NFL can look like a star if he only has to play the pass but once you get them to hesitate a little or come a little too far forward then BOOM over the top for a TD. I'd hardly give credit to CK for those as any QB w ...[text shortened]... de set because he can run the ball... however, I'm still not sold on him playing over A Smith.
I tend to trust the judgment of the one coach who actually made Alex Smith respectable. He was a horrible, horrible bust for years before Harbaugh came in.
17 Dec 12
4 edits
Originally posted by USArmyParatrooperYou forget what he did against the Bills in the 49ers last 40 point performance. 303 yds on only 18 completions which is almost 17 yds per completion, 3 tds and no interceptions.
You're crazy. Alex Smith rarely even attempts those passes. He was dead last in the league in pass attempts over 15 yards, and 29th in pass attempts over 10.
I tend to trust the judgment of the one coach who actually made Alex Smith respectable. He was a horrible, horrible bust for years before Harbaugh came in.
CK only had 216 yds on 14 completions which is about 15.5 yards per completions, 4 tds and 1 interception.
Please don't try to compare the teams becasue the Bills D actually gives up less yds/game than the Patriots and the overall landscape of both defenses looks eerily similar. CK or A Smith weren't the reasons that their team scored big in those games. I'd give more credit to the running game.
In other News I don't think the Patriots will win the SB because if they make it they will likely have to play against the Niners, Packers, Seahawks, or Falcons (my top four "seeds" to make it to the SB from the NFC) Two of those teams have already beat the Pats and obviously match up really well against them and the other two are just damn good football teams.
17 Dec 12
2 edits
Originally posted by USArmyParatrooperGoing into last night's game according to the stats at ESPN, 10 of CK passes have been thrown beyond 21 yards out of 129 attempted (7.8😵 and he had 5 of 10 with no TDs.http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/14001/colin-kaepernick
You're crazy. Alex Smith rarely even attempts those passes. He was dead last in the league in pass attempts over 15 yards, and 29th in pass attempts over 10.
I tend to trust the judgment of the one coach who actually made Alex Smith respectable. He was a horrible, horrible bust for years before Harbaugh came in.
Alex Smith had thrown 17 beyond 21 out of 217 (also 7.8😵 and completed 8 for 3 TDs.http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/8416/alex-smith
Now they haven't updated, so CK's numbers will increase (though one of his TDs throws was on a short pass). But the stats are little different. People often have perceptions based on their selective memory. This seems to be the case with your bias against Alex Smith.
EDIT: And the 49ers are 31st in number of passes attempted, so the figures as to the rarity of Smith throwing over 10 or 20 yards are misleading at best.
17 Dec 12
By contrast, the Seahawks have thrown even less passes than the Niners, but they go deep a lot. Going into yesterday, Russell Wilson had thrown 51 passes of more than 20 yards or 15.5% of his attempts. He's not all that good at it (yet) completing only 17 (33.3😵 for 7TDs and 5 INTs, but it does show a difference in the offensive coaching philosophy.
17 Dec 12
Originally posted by no1marauderI wonder what the league avg is for completion % over 20 yards?
By contrast, the Seahawks have thrown even less passes than the Niners, but they go deep a lot. Going into yesterday, Russell Wilson had thrown 51 passes of more than 20 yards or 15.5% of his attempts. He's not all that good at it (yet) completing only 17 (33.3😵 for 7TDs and 5 INTs, but it does show a difference in the offensive coaching philosophy.
17 Dec 12
Originally posted by tomtom232How can you discern the true distance of the pass thrown?
I wonder what the league avg is for completion % over 20 yards?
A screen pass behind the line to a wide out who runs the ball 30 yards is not a 30 yard
pass, but the result of the play is a 30 yard play.
These QB's that throw a lot of dinks and then have their receivers make plays are
great for their stats, but not truly throwing down field. Don't you agree?
17 Dec 12
Originally posted by shortcircuitThere are guys paid at ESPN to look at the video and compute the number of passes that are thrown at the different distances. They don't just look at the box scores or play by play.
How can you discern the true distance of the pass thrown?
A screen pass behind the line to a wide out who runs the ball 30 yards is not a 30 yard
pass, but the result of the play is a 30 yard play.
These QB's that throw a lot of dinks and then have their receivers make plays are
great for their stats, but not truly throwing down field. Don't you agree?
17 Dec 12
1 edit
Originally posted by tomtom232This seems to be surprisingly hard information to find; there doesn't seem to be any place on ESPN or NFL.com which give league totals on the passing splits.
I wonder what the league avg is for completion % over 20 yards?
Looking at some of the "top" QBs, Brees, Rodgers, Peyton and Eli are around 40%. Brady is only 17 for 54 or 31.5%.
18 Dec 12
Originally posted by no1marauderThat's why I asked because I couldn't find it. Thanks for the info. It seems that he's doing pretty good for his rookie year... He could win rookie of the year depending on his, Luck's and Griffin's performances down the stretch. We'll see what happens against the 49ers.
This seems to be surprisingly hard information to find; there doesn't seem to be any place on ESPN or NFL.com which give league totals on the passing splits.
Looking at some of the "top" QBs, Brees, Rodgers, Peyton and Eli are around 40%. Brady is only 17 for 54 or 31.5%.
18 Dec 12
1 edit
Originally posted by no1marauderI'll try to find it, but someone on a sports message board posted something (I think from ESPN) that ranked Smith 29th and 31st in pass attempts beyond 10 and 15 yards last year.
Going into last night's game according to the stats at ESPN, 10 of CK passes have been thrown beyond 21 yards out of 129 attempted (7.8😵 and he had 5 of 10 with no TDs.http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/14001/colin-kaepernick
Alex Smith had thrown 17 beyond 21 out of 217 (also 7.8😵 and completed 8 for 3 TDs.http://espn.go.com/ so the figures as to the rarity of Smith throwing over 10 or 20 yards are misleading at best.
I couldn't find whether or not what you linked is accounting for yards after catch for the completed catches.
18 Dec 12
1 edit
Originally posted by USArmyParatrooperIt isn't the categories are clearly labelled "Pass thrown Behind Line of Scrimmage" "Pass thrown 1-10 yds" etc. etc. etc.
I'll try to find it, but someone on a sports message board posted something (I think from ESPN) that ranked Smith 29th and 31st in pass attempts beyond 10 and 15 yards last year.
I couldn't find whether or not what you linked is accounting for yards after catch for the completed catches.
Last year Smith threw 36 passes 20+ yards out of 445 (8.1😵 about the same as this year and about the same as CK has. The 49ers went 13-3; was that that big of a problem?
And again, if all you are looking at is the total number of such attempts, the 49ers threw less passes last year than every team in the league but Denver. Therefore, it's hardly surprising that Smith would be "29th and 31st in pass attempts beyond 10 and 15 yards last year".
18 Dec 12
1 edit
Originally posted by no1marauderhttp://wp.advancednflstats.com/playerstats.php?pos=QB
It isn't the categories are clearly labelled "Pass thrown Behind Line of Scrimmage" "Pass thrown 1-10 yds" etc. etc. etc.
Last year Smith threw 36 passes 20+ yards out of 445 (8.1😵 about the same as this year and about the same as CK has. The 49ers went 13-3; was that that big of a problem?
And again, if all you are looking at g that Smith would be "29th and 31st in pass attempts beyond 10 and 15 yards last year".
Percent Deep = "% Pass Att > 15 yds"
Colin Kaepernick is ranked #5 at 24%
Alex Smith is ranked #39 at 13.9%
I think when you define "deep" as greater than 20 yard passes those tend to be so seldom for most QB's it's not really a good way to compare.
BTW, other than the mere fact that I prefer Kaepernick over Smith, on what basis do you accuse me of having bias?
18 Dec 12
Originally posted by tomtom232He won't win rookie of the year, and shouldn't. The seahawks were pretty good last year. The colts were terrible. Luck has made the biggest difference as a rookie, though RG3 has been very impressive.
That's why I asked because I couldn't find it. Thanks for the info. It seems that he's doing pretty good for his rookie year... He could win rookie of the year depending on his, Luck's and Griffin's performances down the stretch. We'll see what happens against the 49ers.
18 Dec 12
Originally posted by dryhumpWell, the fact that it's not his rookie year might be a factor as well.
He won't win rookie of the year, and shouldn't. The seahawks were pretty good last year. The colts were terrible. Luck has made the biggest difference as a rookie, though RG3 has been very impressive.
Just sayin....
19 Dec 12
1 edit
Originally posted by USArmyParatrooperYou were discussing deep passes and claimed "Alex Smith rarely even attempts those passes". In truth, he tries those passes about as much as CK. It does seem that the SF passing game with CK throws more 11-20 pass plays by a small factor. ESPN still hasn't updated the splits, but AS threw 74.2% of his passes under 10 yards and CK 69.0%.
http://wp.advancednflstats.com/playerstats.php?pos=QB
Percent Deep = "% Pass Att > 15 yds"
Colin Kaepernick is ranked #5 at 24%
Alex Smith is ranked #39 at 13.9%
I think when you define "deep" as greater than 20 yard passes those tend to be so seldom for most QB's it's not really a good way to compare.
BTW, other than the mere fact that I prefer Kaepernick over Smith, on what basis do you accuse me of having bias?
Last year, AS threw about the same percentage of passes over 15 yards as Drew Brees did. Is that a problem?