21 Jun 20
@sh76 saidThe author of the Santa Clara study.
A May study:
Infection fatality rates ranged from 0.02% to 0.86% (median 0.26% ) and corrected values ranged from 0.02% to 0.78% (median 0.25% ). Among people <70 years old, infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 0.26% with median of 0.05% (corrected, 0.00-0.23% with median of 0.04% ).
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v2
'Nuff said.
21 Jun 20
@sh76 saidMaybe. If you come across some actual evidence suggesting the IFR has fallen sharply from its estimated 1.0 to 1.3 a few months ago, I'll take a look at it.
And Spain got hit hard and early. Along with northern Italy and New York, they're all almost certainly outliers on the high end of IFR.
But you're not convincing me that the IFR was ever as low as what the Swedes or the Santa Clara study suggested. The data just doesn't support it.
21 Jun 20
By the way, via @COVID19Tracking: Today's death count is 297, fewest since March 27 (h/t Nate Silver). Though the 27,000 cases is a 6k increase from last Sunday.
Cases continue to rise as deaths continue to fall.
@sh76 saidWhy does that site have 9,000 less deaths in the US than WM?
By the way, via @COVID19Tracking: Today's death count is 297, fewest since March 27 (h/t Nate Silver). Though the 27,000 cases is a 6k increase from last Sunday.
Cases continue to rise as deaths continue to fall.
EDIT: Well I see 5740 of it is because they refuse to use NYC's "probables" count.
21 Jun 20
@no1marauder saidI don't know, but if the issue is the trend, if you use the same source every day, it's doesn't matter which one you use.
Why does that site have 9,000 less deaths in the US than WM?
EDIT: Well I see 5740 of it is because they refuse to use NYC's "probables" count.
21 Jun 20
@sh76 saidThere are certainly less deaths then there were. We'll see what effect the sudden jump in cases has on deaths in the weeks ahead.
I don't know, but if the issue is the trend, if you use the same source every day, it's doesn't matter which one you use.
Have you seen the charts comparing the US and Western Europe's outbreaks? With about the same population, the Euros are now having only a small fraction of our new cases, somewhere around a 1/5. What's the explanation for this?
@no1marauder saidYes, I've seen them.
There are certainly less deaths then there were. We'll see what effect the sudden jump in cases has on deaths in the weeks ahead.
Have you seen the charts comparing the US and Western Europe's outbreaks? With about the same population, the Euros are now having only a small fraction of our new cases, somewhere around a 1/5. What's the explanation for this?
Western Europe seems to have been hit like New York. Very hard and very fast. The south is more like Brazil; a slow and steady build.
In retrospect, given that there was only going to be the political will to shut down once per place, it probably would have made more sense to shut down the hotspots only (NY, NJ, MA, MI, New Orleans) in March and wait for spikes to shut down Texas and Florida.
Nate Silver had an astute observation the other day that large countries seem to have more trouble with COVID, possibly because treating the whole country as a single outbreak doesn't really work.
Edit: I imagine that basically untouched areas like Germany, Scandinavia (Swden excepted) and Eastern Europe are very vulnerable to spikes. Germany in particular seems to be in a precarious spot.
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-latest-german-reproduction-rate-spikes-60-in-a-day/a-53886880
21 Jun 20
@no1marauder saidThere's also our incompetent federal leadership, of course.
There are certainly less deaths then there were. We'll see what effect the sudden jump in cases has on deaths in the weeks ahead.
Have you seen the charts comparing the US and Western Europe's outbreaks? With about the same population, the Euros are now having only a small fraction of our new cases, somewhere around a 1/5. What's the explanation for this?
21 Jun 20
@sh76 saidIF IFR drops sharply in a few months, then Texas shutting down relatively early probably saved thousands or even tens of thousands of lives.
Yes, I've seen them.
Western Europe seems to have been hit like New York. Very hard and very fast. The south is more like Brazil; a slow and steady build.
In retrospect, given that there was only going to be the political will to shut down once per place, it probably would have made more sense to shut down the hotspots only (NY, NJ, MA, MI, New Orleans) in March and wait f ...[text shortened]... .
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-latest-german-reproduction-rate-spikes-60-in-a-day/a-53886880
21 Jun 20
@no1marauder saidGood point. I wasn't thinking about it like that.
IF IFR drops sharply in a few months, then Texas shutting down relatively early probably saved thousands or even tens of thousands of lives.
22 Jun 20
@sh76 saidBrazil is starting to see things get worse because they are heading into winter.
Yes, I've seen them.
Western Europe seems to have been hit like New York. Very hard and very fast. The south is more like Brazil; a slow and steady build.
In retrospect, given that there was only going to be the political will to shut down once per place, it probably would have made more sense to shut down the hotspots only (NY, NJ, MA, MI, New Orleans) in March and wait f ...[text shortened]... .
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-latest-german-reproduction-rate-spikes-60-in-a-day/a-53886880