24 Jun 20
@soothfast saidLol
I am not comfortable gambling the lives of possibly hundreds of thousands of people by shaping public health policy around your "maybes." The first rule of crisis management is to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
That's right. Prepare for the worst.
You're overly fixated on death counts, I might add. They're bad, but the permanent organ damage many surv ...[text shortened]... ymptomatic young people are exhibiting significant subclinical lung damage, are just as significant.
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24 Jun 20
2 edits
@eladar saidI’ll bite...Show me what specifically I’m supposed to be focused on. What are the relevant statistics of young, asymptomatic victims that permanently suffer organ damage? They better be “significant” in the overarching picture or you will be called out on it. Here is your chance to educate an inbred redneck.
It would go away during the summer, if there was no intermation travel reintroducing it.
It would go away in the summer if people spent their time outdoors, not indoors.
It would go away during this summer if Trump were not up for re election.
All of this adds up to proganda trying to make things look as bad as possible.
So yeah, I did not take into account politic ...[text shortened]... you will not continue to spread the propaganda that covid is killing thousands in Texas and Arizona!
24 Jun 20
@sh76 saidI understand your points. But concerning the one above: for awhile, in April and May, I was beginning to think also that the virus was not quite as nasty as was feared in March.
COVID is a dangerous disease and we should try to avoid it where we can. That doesn't contradict the idea that it's not as dangerous as we thought it was in March.
Then slowly, reluctantly, my readings have led me to conclude that the IFR is not everything. There is, as I've mentioned, the sad state of many tens of thousands of survivors with permanent organ damage. There is the mounting evidence, still not wholly established mind you, that perhaps half or more of asymptomatic cases may in fact be suffering disease symptoms under the radar.
Many diseases take months or years to cripple or kill. What we're seeing with COVID-19 suggests that for millions it may be settling in to become a silent syndrome. The flu does not behave this way, not by a long shot. There is so much we don't know about this disease. It behaves bizarrely, killing one person while sparing another with a very similar health profile.
25 Jun 20
@joe-shmo saidNo they don't. In April and May excess deaths were consistently more than 20% over the average expected deaths according to the CDC, even reaching the high thirties at the height of the death toll (so far anyway) in mid-April: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
The US averages 8000 Deaths per Day pre COVID. The population that is susceptible to death is small and decreasing ( maybe 50 million older than 65) and most of the COVID deaths overlap with the 8k figure. If you count that group as complete fatalities that would have only happened this year due to COVID it’s a 2.5% increase in deaths. The reality is it is substantially less.
The constant lie told here by right wingers that only the elderly die from COVID has been debunked many times; the NYC data says about 25% of deaths were 65 or younger. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data-deaths.page
In the town where I live, a 29 year old died of COVID. https://www.timesunion.com/news/article/Colonie-man-lived-a-joyful-life-but-COVID-19-15320029.php
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25 Jun 20
1 edit
@no1marauder
The story is virtually irrelevant to the statistics and you know it. What are the CDC relative statistics of COVID Deaths age 24-35 vs All COVID deaths to date? What are the relative statistics of age 24-35 COVID deaths to ALL deaths age 24-35 over the same period?
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex
25 Jun 20
4 edits
@joe-shmo saidAngela Padula has a Facebook page. Why don't you send her a message telling her the death of her fiance is "irrelevant"? Nor is his death some incredible fluke; according to the link you provided, a total of 11,799 Americans aged 25-34 died in April and May 2020 and 645 or better than 5% died of COVID. At that rate, COVID would be the fourth leading case of death among those 25-34, as it would project out to 3870 in a year, which is higher than any medical condition kills those in that age group in the US. https://www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars/pdf/leading_causes_of_death_by_age_group_2015-a.pdf
@no1marauder
The story is virtually irrelevant to the statistics and you know it. What are the CDC relative statistics of COVID Deaths age 24-35 vs All COVID deaths to date? What are the relative statistics of age 24-35 COVID deaths to ALL deaths age 24-35 over the same period?
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex
The facts remain that you are again using phony statistics (throwing in yearly death rates when COVID didn't start killing large numbers of Americans until late March) and also moving your goalposts; as I said, in NYC 25% of COVID deaths are younger then 25 yet you persist in pretending that this pandemic is no threat to them (nevermind that many of these people may not die, but they spend weeks hospitalized and may develop long term health problems).
It really is a sick death cult you seem to want to be part of.
25 Jun 20
@no1marauder The constant lie told here by right wingers that only the elderly die from COVID has been debunked many times;
Let's not cherry pick, NYC and one 29 year older you heard of where you live. Please!!
I posted the link the other day, the overall picture is 80% of deaths are people 65 and older. And you want to call me a liar?? WTF, man.
So I say 20% are younger, you say 25% and you want to start with the "liar" crap?
We all know how you slant you stance with cherry picking and proper link selection, anectdotal evidence etc.
Face the facts, dying of COVID is mostly for the elderly.
25 Jun 20
@earl-of-trumps saidMaybe you should read the post I was responding to:
@no1marauder The constant lie told here by right wingers that only the elderly die from COVID has been debunked many times;
Let's not cherry pick, NYC and one 29 year older you heard of where you live. Please!!
I posted the link the other day, the overall picture is 80% of deaths are people 65 and older. And you want to call me a liar?? WTF, man.
So I ...[text shortened]... nk selection, anectdotal evidence etc.
Face the facts, dying of COVID is mostly for the elderly.
JS: " The population that is susceptible to death is small and decreasing ( maybe 50 million older than 65)"
Is that not claiming that the only persons "susceptible to death" from COVID are over 65?
Is that statement true?
If it is false, does that poster know it is false?
Has the numbers I posted show, COVID was probably the fourth highest cause of death among Americans aged 25-34 in April and May (higher than anything but accidents, suicides and homicides). And 20-25% is not a trivial number; it would mean about 20,000 to 25,000 Americans under 65 died of COVID in April and May alone.
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25 Jun 20
@no1marauder said“At that rate, COVID would be the fourth leading case of death among those 25-34, as it would project out to 3870 in a year” -no1marauder
Angela Padula has a Facebook page. Why don't you send her a message telling her the death of her fiance is "irrelevant"? Nor is his death some incredible fluke; according to the link you provided, a total of 11,799 Americans aged 25-34 died in April and May 2020 and 645 or better than 5% died of COVID. At that rate, COVID would be the fourth leading case of death among th ...[text shortened]... evelop long term health problems).
It really is a sick death cult you seem to want to be part of.
I’m coming up with phony statistics? What is happening the the death rate in that age group? What is happening to Death rate across every category? What method did you use to project COVID death rates for the year in that age group to conclude they would be 4 leading cause of deaths! You have some nerve talking to me about A “phony statistics”.
“The facts remain that you are again using phony statistics (throwing in yearly death rates when COVID didn't start killing large numbers of Americans until late March)“
You picked the dates on which to draw the statistical comparison...not I. Start in March, April if it pleases you...just state your choice.
25 Jun 20
@joe-shmo saidI multiplied 645 by 6 because that was the figure from 2 months and there are 12 months in a year.
“At that rate, COVID would be the fourth leading case of death among those 25-34, as it would project out to 3870 in a year” -no1marauder
I’m coming up with phony statistics? What is happening the the death rate in that age group? What is happening to Death rate across every category? What method did you use to project COVID death rates for the year in that age g ...[text shortened]... he statistical comparison...not I. Start in March, April if it pleases you...just state your choice.
Is that really too mathematically challenging for you?
I then compared it to yearly CDC death totals given in the link I provided. 3870 deaths would be more than any cause of death among 25-34 year olds in the US but accidents, homicides and suicides.
I also totalled up the weekly deaths given in the CDC link YOU directed me to and then divided the number of COVID deaths by the total deaths among US 25-34 year olds in April and May. The result was about 5.5%; 645/11,799.
There should be a calculator function on your PC or phone; try using it. If you don't have those, an abacus can also be used, though it might be a little more time-consuming.
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25 Jun 20
3 edits
@no1marauder saidFirstly...you’ve used 9 weeks of data as two months. How do you wish to proceed with the correction? Do you wish to use weeks ending 5/30 - 4/11 or 5/23 - 4/4 ?
I multiplied 645 by 6 because that was the figure from 2 months and there are 12 months in a year.
Is that really too mathematically challenging for you?
I then compared it to yearly CDC death totals given in the link I provided. 3870 deaths would be more than any cause of death among 25-34 year olds in the US but accidents, homicides and suicides.
I also total ...[text shortened]... f you don't have those, an abacus can also be used, though it might be a little more time-consuming.
PS. I Assume you will want to use the latter as it captures more of the peak death rate, but I thought I should confirm.
“There should be a calculator function on your PC or phone; try using it. If you don't have those, an abacus can also be used, though it might be a little more time-consuming.” - no1
That is correct...I am going to school you on a smart phone wise guy...
25 Jun 20
3 edits
@joe-shmo saidApril-May 61 days.
Firstly...you’ve used 9 weeks of data as two months. How do you wish to proceed with the correction? Do you wish to use weeks ending 5/30 - 4/11 or 5/23 - 4/4 ?
PS. I Assume you will want to use the latter as it captures more of the peak death rate, but I thought I should confirm.
“There should be a calculator function on your PC or phone; try using it. If you don't ...[text shortened]... re time-consuming.” - no1
That is correct...I am going to school you on a smart phone wise guy...
9 weeks 63 days.
I'd prefer to use the full 9 weeks that ended in April and May; you can adjust the count by 3.2% for a bimonthly average or times it by 5.78 to get a yearly one.
You get about 623 bimonthly using the first method and 3728 yearly using the second.
The point remains valid either way.
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25 Jun 20
3 edits
@no1marauder saidOk...good. ( now your back on track to make an absolutely worthless prediction ).
Guess it's simpler to divide 645 by 63 and then multiply by 365. The result is 3737.
The next step is to verify whether your constant death rate assumption makes sense over the domain of the actual data that is being collected.
Your weekly death rate is 72. How well does that model fit the data? Compute the Percent Error by Week. This is simply the following ratio for your prediction specifically:
( 72 - Actual )/ Actual* 100
What are the values in chronological order by week?
Sample calculations: Week Ending 4/4
( 72 - 107 )/107 *100 = - 32.7%
Week Ending 5/2:
( 72 - 72 )/ 72 *100 = 0%. ( PerfectIon...well done! )
25 Jun 20
@joe-shmo saidWhat "prediction"? There really, really were 645 deaths due to COVID in the US among age 25-34 in the nine week period discussed.
Ok...good. ( now your back on track to make an absolutely worthless prediction ).
The next step is to verify whether your constant death rate assumption makes sense over the domain of the actual data that is being collected.
Your weekly death rate is 72. How well does that model fit the data? Compute the Percent Error by Week. This is simply the following ratio for y ...[text shortened]... )/107 *100 = - 32.7%
Week Ending 5/2:
( 72 - 72 )/ 72 *100 = 0%. ( PerfectIon...well done! )
Assuming the death rates for other causes was typical in that period for the same age group, COVID would have been the 4th leading cause of death in that age group in that period.
Your gobbledygook doesn't change that.