03 Oct 20
1 edit
@no1marauder saidSorry, I made a math error.
When will you learn that CDC data has serious time lags and does not give reliable numbers until at least a month afterward?
Peruse Table 1 here for August, 2020: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm
It shows about 25,000 COVID deaths out of a total of approximately 235,000 or almost double the usual 5-6% deaths from "infectious respiratory diseases ...[text shortened]... an excess annual death count of something like 330,000.
I know just a few old folks, no big deal.
For the last year available, 2018, " 2,839,205 resident deaths were registered in the United States." https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db355.htm#:~:text=In%202018%2C%20a%20total%20of,at%20birth%20increased%200.1%20year.
If you multiply that by 117%, you get about 3.32 million or almost 500,000 excess deaths if August 2020 trends held for an entire year.
Not exactly " flu-land" or "halfway there", sh76.
03 Oct 20
@sh76 saidYOU on June 21st: Deaths are now at 600/day in the 7-day rolling average. Let's see if that goes up significantly. If it does, I'll be convinced there's a major problem.
Go ahead. I never said I was sure the Stanford study was right. I cited it, perhaps optimistically. And I was very cautious about the IHME model. I never predicted that it would be right.
Anyway, the over-all IFR was probably never more than about 0.6 or 0.7 except for some isolated cases where the hospital systems were strained and where people live on top of each other wit ...[text shortened]... lots of people get it, some are going to die from it. But the risk to most individuals is miniscule.
ME on June 21st: It's quite plausible that the IFR might be going down somewhat; the possibility that this might happen due to more effective treatments was one of the reasons why early lockdowns were advisable. But even if it is goes to .5, if the US keeps averaging 25,000 to 30,000 confirmed new cases a day as it has the last few days, you're still looking at an increase in deaths back up to the 1000 per day range.
https://www.redhotpawn.com/forum/debates/nc-antibody-study-implies-0-125percent-covid-ifr.185925
As my Con Law professor used to say: "Who's right and who's wrong?"
The rest of that thread is interesting reading though I doubt you'll be referencing it much.
03 Oct 20
@moonbus saidI hope not, my plan for the future of mankind is for trump to get very ill, then recover and humbly beg forgiveness from the loved ones of those that have died from covid and were recently brushed off as ‘weak’ by the guy who bares the lions share of the responsibility for a big chunk of the fatalities.
Maybe it's a fake positive, to show how much 'empathy' he has developed since the debate debacle.
03 Oct 20
And now, apparently Trump was diagnosed on Wednesday.
Doctor at medical update said Trump diagnosed 72 hours ago.
I can just imagine the dialogue between doc and president.
Doctor: you’ve tested positive for COVID-19
Trump: oh sh$t !! I’m going to my golf course for a benefit. I’m not wearing a mask !!
😳😳😳
03 Oct 20
@Earl-of-Trumps
It is the Republican National committee that decides who the candidate will be if Trump cannot be the one. And of course high on the list would be Pence but they don't have to swing that way, they could stick in Barr or any other republican instead. It doesn't have to be Pence.
04 Oct 20
@sonhouse saidIt would be someone just as extreme like Tucker Carlson
@Earl-of-Trumps
It is the Republican National committee that decides who the candidate will be if Trump cannot be the one. And of course high on the list would be Pence but they don't have to swing that way, they could stick in Barr or any other republican instead. It doesn't have to be Pence.