General
10 Jan 07
11 Jan 07
1 edit
Originally posted by adramforallWell, betting on a horse win/place, in a race with 8 entrants after some good study, is not exactly the same thing as buying a lottery ticket with winning odds of 1 out of ten millions or something like that.
Is gambling on horses not a form of lottery?
It's not like betting a soccer game Brazil vs Greece, you know that 9 out of ten times Brazil will pull a win.
That is why lottery,bingo,slot machines and that crap are so popular : simply because people have nothing to know or understand in order to bet, they just push a button or buy a ticket and sit down hoping for the money to come.
It' simpler for them, they just want to try the luck, not to do a reasonate bet.
11 Jan 07
Originally posted by LundosProbability has nothing to do with the exchange. In most people's opinion, a dollar is a throw-away amount. Who wouldn't trade a dollar for M$122?
You don't understand probability, do you?
If a person plays even one dollar a week, that is only $52 for the year. Hardly a loss that would register for most people. However, what the person stands to gain is staggering in proportion. If a person stands to lose an amount that doesn't even register, they would be foolish not purchasing a ticket a week... they can only win if they pay.
Obviously a person is foolish if they hope to win, but they certainly have little to lose for the venture and much more to gain. When seen as a throw-away gesture, the foolish person is the one who doesn't play.
11 Jan 07
Originally posted by adramforallYep that's the juice of the matter.
Or do they just offer silly prices to attract mugs to bet on races?
Mugs who bet on 50-1 three-legged-horses are just the same as people who buy the lottery ticket because attracted by the big prize.
Regarding the odds question........is hard to explain in a short post, usually bookies offer odds at 110% or even 115% because with accurate calculations on the odds to offer they will get a small amount of money, whatever the race result will be.
Originally posted by FreakyKBHProbability has everything to do with it. Lottories only exists because some people think like you. You play for 1$. Then you do it 52 weeks a year for 20 years. You still haven't won the big prize. What then? You would be foolish to play.
Probability has nothing to do with the exchange. In most people's opinion, a dollar is a throw-away amount. Who wouldn't trade a dollar for M$122?
If a person plays even one dollar a week, that is only $52 for the year. Hardly a loss that would register for most people. However, what the person stands to gain is staggering in proportion. If a perso to gain. When seen as a throw-away gesture, the foolish person is the one who doesn't play.
EDIT: Of course you might argue that the utility of a lottery playing person i higher, if they play than if they don't, but from a purely economic and mathmatical view, it's a losing game.
11 Jan 07
4 edits
Originally posted by RavelloAlthough my main profession is a quantity surveyor I am also a racecourse bookmaker, since the introduction of betfair (which has obvious implications on the betting percentages) you tend to get to bet to about 0.8% per runner. The problem is that there is information out there a lot of times like a horse that opens 10/1 but isn't up to the task that day will drift to say 20/1 (losses 4.3% in your book perecntage), conversely a horse might be backed in from 5/1 to 4/1 (losses 3.3šµ so although in a 10 runner race you started with a notional profit margin of 8%, your average notional percentage is really about 3.4% (obvioulsy I am rounding for simplicity) you have laid 5/1 something that is now 4/1 and not only has the 10/1 shot gone to 20/1 it is also very hard to take any money on it. Obviously sometimes you are lucky and someone may back a horse with you at the shorter price before it drifts and you manage to miss laying the horse that shortens then lay it at the shorter price, but the trend is that you get caught so lay the horse again at the shorter price to average the price out that you have laid. But the real problem is that although it looks like you are betting to a certain percentage, some horses you cannot lay and these are the ones that very rarely win. Also of course there is the expenses to consider. So unfortunately its not as good as it may seem to outsiders. I am talking about the UK of course and different counties have different systems like a tote pool betting system.
Yep that's the juice of the matter.
Mugs who bet on 50-1 three-legged-horses are just the same as people who buy the lottery ticket because attracted by the big prize.
Regarding the odds question........is hard to explain in a short post, usually bookies offer odds at 110% or even 115% because with accurate calculations on the odds to offer they will get a small amount of money, whatever the race result will be.
Edit I have tried to get rid of that stupid smiley in the middle of the text but cannot