Lottery system

Originally posted by FreakyKBH
Again, you are talking about the probabilities of winning, whereas I am talking about the actual exchange.

The only way anyone can win is if they purchase (at minimum) a one dollar ticket. You wish to justify not playing because of probability, but there is zero probability to win without a purchase. The person who doesn't play is only a ...[text shortened]... 'something good' --- not real likely to happen, but it's better to be safe than sorry.

The exchange? You still don't get it. Let me come with an example: There's a lottory in Denmark. You pay $5 to play every week (you get 10 chances to win) and there's a payoff of M$3 if you win. You pick 7 numbers out of 36 and they all have to be drawn for you to win.
You're probability to win is 1:4 207 230 720. Now how many times would you have to play to win?
Of course there is a probabilty to win if you play, but it is very, very, very small. So who cares about the exchange? It's probabilty to win that matters.

Originally posted by Lundos
The exchange? You still don't get it. Let me come with an example: There's a lottory in Denmark. You pay $5 to play every week (you get 10 chances to win) and there's a payoff of M$3 if you win. You pick 7 numbers out of 36 and they all have to be drawn for you to win.
You're probability to win is 1:4 207 230 720. Now how many times would you have to play t ...[text shortened]... ry, very, very small. So who cares about the exchange? It's probabilty to win that matters.

The reason it comes down to the exchange is specifically due to two things.
1) the relative value of entrance fee;
2) the absolute value of non-entrance.

Since you have not argued about the loss of yield the $52 a year could bring, I won't consider it as part of the equation any longer. However, given #1, namely, that the entrance fee is so insignificant as to be considered a throw-away amount, in light of #2, only a fool would not play.

The probabilities (incorrectly stated, by the way) are so heavy against winning, even large amounts of money will do little to increase one's odds by any significant amount. But, again, the correct mindset in playing the lottery is from the position of hedging one's bets.

Those who go into the lottery with the intent to win against the odds are foolish. More so those who play the lottery in regular dollar amounts exceeding what they can afford to throw away. However, playing a throw-away amount never hurts, simply because of the possible (although highly improbable) exchange.