19 Nov 06
Originally posted by EcstremeVenomNow you're starting to understand. There is a process behind every probability whether it's a machine or something else. Unless you know something about that process, there's no way you can assign a probability to an event.
the probability of the lottery should not be based on whether you win or lose, it should be based on the process, that weird machine they use which is obviously not 50/50. you can not base probability on something you know, like the diamond thing.
20 Nov 06
Originally posted by Palynkaif God(s) created everything, then there is no process behind God(s) existance, so it would be 50/50.
Now you're starting to understand. There is a process behind every probability whether it's a machine or something else. Unless you know something about that process, there's no way you can assign a probability to an event.
20 Nov 06
1 edit
Originally posted by EcstremeVenomIF God created everything and you know this, then it's closer to 100/0.
if God(s) created everything, then there is no process behind God(s) existance, so it would be 50/50.
If you don't know that he exists, then it depends on what evidence you have. I see no evidence for His existence, so I assign a near zero probability of Him existing.
20 Nov 06
Originally posted by EcstremeVenomGod does not exist so the probability of him existing is 0.
if God(s) created everything, then there is no process behind God(s) existance, so it would be 50/50.
Probability theory requires several prerequisites.
1. A number of possible outcomes.
2. A random selection process.
If one of the outcomes is not possible (God cannot exist) then you cannot assign probabilities. The selection process is not know (as you admit) so again you cannot assign probabilities.
20 Nov 06
Originally posted by EcstremeVenomSounds like sound thinking to me. Why were you called stupid?
there is a difference between this and what dr. scribbles said, dr. scribbles says the die can be either a 3 or not a 3, but there is 5 other possiblities. with this one, there is two possibilities, his theory is flawed. God can not half-exist, he either does or he doesnt. since there is only two possibilities, it should be compared to a coin, not a die. when you flip a coin it is either heads or tails and has a 50% chance to land on heads.
20 Nov 06
Originally posted by scottishinnzHe doesn't have to consider the source. He only has to consider whether or not there is truth there.
EcstremeV - you can take this as a compliment if you like, but considering the source.....
That's one reason why you lack credibility. You're biased.
20 Nov 06
Originally posted by jaywillSo all biased people lack credibility? If that is your understanding of logic then no wonder you thought the 50/50 idea made sense.
He doesn't have to consider the source. He only has to consider whether or not there is truth there.
That's one reason why you lack credibility. You're biased.
By the way, by supporting EcstremeVenoms view point you are saying that you think there is a 50% chance that you are wrong about the existence of God. What little faith you have!
20 Nov 06
Originally posted by twhiteheadI think that the anology of the existence or non-existence of something it is a binary proposition.
So all biased people lack credibility? If that is your understanding of logic then no wonder you thought the 50/50 idea made sense.
By the way, by supporting EcstremeVenoms view point you are saying that you think there is a 50% chance that you are wrong about the existence of God. What little faith you have!
So the coin analogy is more appropriate it we're talking about the probobility of that idea.
And if you are talking about probabilty then bias is a problem.
You're in the realm of mathematics.
20 Nov 06
If I were dead, I would be rolling over in my grave right now.
To remove the label "stupid" from the 50/50 gang, I suggest the following criteria:
1) read this short entry and explain how it relates to the OP. Specifically, why is it important to understand the sample space and is the 50/50's definition sufficient?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sample_space
2) List the Laws of Probability. Explain why misrepresenting the sample space almost always invalidates probabilistic claims that follow.
3) Finally, read the following link and correctly formalize the measure space for this problem.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_space
I have chosen these links from a layman's source to facilitate learning.
20 Nov 06
Originally posted by jaywillYou need to follow the steps listed in my post above. You have absolutely no clue what you are talking about. Several excellent examples of "binary propositions" for which the event probabilities are not equal (i.e. 0.5 and 0.5) have been offered in this thread already.
I think that the anology of the existence or non-existence of something it is a binary proposition.
So the coin analogy is more appropriate it we're talking about the probobility of that idea.
And if you are talking about probabilty then bias is a problem.
You're in the realm of mathematics.
Here is another. I have a daughter. Either her name is "jknm29u3ne" or it is not "jknm29u3ne." Do you think that the probability that her name is "jknm29u3ne" is 0.5?