21 Nov 06
Originally posted by XanthosNZwhat the Evolution theory states, is that it is POSSIBLE not that it is FACT. the same goes with the creation theory.
No, actually Creationism isn't on the same grounds as Evolution. Evolution is a Scientific Theory (look it up, it doesn't mean guess) and Creationism is utter rubbish with no evidence at all.
And as for having no evidence and therefore it being 50-50. That's ludicrous. If there is no evidence for either side then you cannot say what the probability is. ...[text shortened]... d bastardization of Pascal's Wager, the worst argument for believing in God ever imagined.
21 Nov 06
4 edits
Originally posted by EcstremeVenom1) How does that matter for the calculation of the probabilty?
with the second choice, there is infinate possibilities.
2) How is that fundamentally different from "God does not exist"? In this case, there would be an infinite number of other possibilities (namely the union of the union of all the subsets of a countably infinite set of all other gods with the event "zero gods" ).
Edit: I think you are clearly confusing the "sample space" with the "sigma-algebra" defined over the sample space. "A" and "not A" are single events with (if well defined) a probability measure. These are individual elements of the sigma-algebra. The sample space may have many more elements, including many elements which belong to the set "not A" in the sigma-algebra.
Edit2: Again, take a look at this link.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_space
21 Nov 06
Originally posted by telerionThe only way your 'daughter's name/not your daughter's name' proposition could be considered identical to 'God exists/God does not exist' question is if we are not considering your daughter's actual name.
The claim "I have a daughter" is taken as given in the example. The only issue over which uncertainty exists is whether or not her name is jknm29u3ne. As far as probabilities go, this is exactly the same type of problem as "Does God exist or not exist." They are both "event A / not event A" sorts of problems. Assuming that probabilities can even be form ...[text shortened]... t probabilities are simply prob(A) and 1 - prob(A). Note that prob(A) need not equal 0.5.
If the proposition is simply to determine whether or not her name is jknm29u3ne, then and only then is the proposition the same. If we are trying to determine her name, their exists no correlation.
21 Nov 06
Originally posted by FreakyKBHFreaky, are you arguing that there is a logical (non-faith) oriented way
The only way your 'daughter's name/not your daughter's name' proposition could be considered identical to 'God exists/God does not exist' question is if we are [b]not considering your daughter's actual name.
If the proposition is simply to determine whether or not her name is jknm29u3ne, then and only then is the proposition the same. If we are trying to determine her name, their exists no correlation.[/b]
of constructing the theological issue such that there is a 50/50 chance
that (a) God exists?
I'm not sure where you're going here.
Nemesio
22 Nov 06
Originally posted by telerioni didnt say just god, i said god(s), there either is or there isnt, that is two possibilities. with your name thing, there is infinate possibilities, so you can not compare the two.
2) How is that fundamentally different from "God does not exist"?
22 Nov 06
Originally posted by EcstremeVenomThere are an infinite number of possible gods, just as there are an infinite number of possible names for Telerion's daughter.
i didnt say just god, i said god(s), there either is or there isnt, that is two possibilities. with your name thing, there is infinate possibilities, so you can not compare the two.
22 Nov 06
Originally posted by rwingettthe question was does a god or gods exist?
Gods. Plural. There are an infinite number of possible gods.
not does the christian god exist or the jewish god exist? it was does god or a god exist? so the different gods does not change the probability.
22 Nov 06
1 edit
The only way your 'daughter's name/not your daughter's name' proposition could be considered identical to 'God exists/God does not exist' question is if we are [b]not considering your daughter's actual name.[/b]
That's absolutely correct. Freaky you really have to give me more credit than that. If you go back and look at my post on this, the only events that I listed are the following:
1) Her name is jknm29u3ne.
2) Her name is not jknm29u3ne.
This forms a sigma-algebra over the space of all possible names (without any restrictions on name length or characters this would be a countably infinite set, but it would still be measurable.) If all names were equally likely then the probability that her name is jknm29u3ne would be 0 and thus the probability that her name is not jknm29u3ne would be 1. Interestingly, this would be true (ex ante for any particular name.
The same holds true if one assumes that all gods are equally likely to exist (again if such a set were measurable and I don't think that it is without assumptions that make the question uninteresting). In order to get a .5 probabilty that Venom's god exists his god has to be infinitely more likely to exist than any one of an infinite number of other gods (infinitely many of them are very similar versions of Venom's god.)).
Anyway, until some one actually constructs a valid and non-trivial probabilty space over the supernatural, this thread is just a free lesson in probability for Mr. Venom and company.
22 Nov 06
Originally posted by EcstremeVenomIn that case, it is different than the names example, nevertheless there is still no way to infer from that what the probability of such an event is.
i didnt say just god, i said god(s), there either is or there isnt, that is two possibilities. with your name thing, there is infinate possibilities, so you can not compare the two.
A variation of an earlier example would be better.
Let's say I have a large bowl.
Now consider the event "there is an alcoholic beverage in the large bowl" Note that I do not say which kind of alcoholic beverage. There could be rum, vodka, red wine, margarita, whiskey sour, whatever. There's even an uncountably infinite number of possible beverages if you allow for mixes to differ according to measures of ingredients.
Now only knowing that I have a large bowl, would it be reasonable to infer that the probabilty that there is an alcoholic beverage in my large bowl is .5? Of course not! There could be water. There could be only air. There could be horse dung or flowers. There could be really any thing or things that could fit into the bowl. There could even be different mixes of non-alcoholic drinks so that there are infinitely many other possible outcomes. Again if we assume that all of these outcomes are equally likely then the event "there is an alcoholic beverage in my large bowl" has a vanishingly small probability while the event "there is not an alcoholic beverage in my large bowl" has a probabilty very close to 1.
The only way to get around this for your god question is make special assumptions about the sample space of supernatural things. Not only is that inherently ridiculous, but it's also pure question begging. You might as well say it's 1, and another might as well so it's 0.
22 Nov 06
Originally posted by EcstremeVenomYou're joking, right?
the question was does a god or gods exist?
not does the christian god exist or the jewish god exist? it was does god or a god exist? so the different gods does not change the probability.
Someone already presented the probability of having 3 or 'not 3' on a die and you claimed that 'not 3' included other possibilities and meant it wasn't 50/50. You really need some coherence.
22 Nov 06
Originally posted by telerionThe question is that you have no basis for assuming they are equally likely.
Again if we assume that all of these outcomes are equally likely then the event "there is an alcoholic beverage in my large bowl" has a vanishingly small probability while the event "there is not an alcoholic beverage in my large bowl" has a probabilty very close to 1.
22 Nov 06
Originally posted by Palynkasince we dont know if it is gods or god for sure, it is only one possibility that God(s) exists. if i wouldve said does the CHRISTIAN god exist, then you argument would be correct.
You're joking, right?
Someone already presented the probability of having 3 or 'not 3' on a die and you claimed that 'not 3' included other possibilities and meant it wasn't 50/50. You really need some coherence.