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About 2 months out: Who will win, and why

About 2 months out: Who will win, and why

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moonbus
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@averagejoe1 said
The best line of the convention...Melania said you always know what he is thinking. Straightforward guy, I would say. No politics.
Yeah, but straightforward in the wrong direction. It's always ME ME ME. Trump cares about no one and nothing else, thinks about no one and nothing else.

vivify
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@no1marauder said
I suggest you look at the election results; Johnson and Stein between them got more than 6% of the vote an unusually high number for a US Presidential election. This won't be repeated this time.
That doesn't make them "strong" third party candidates. They only factored because the 2016 race was incredibly close; several states were decided by a 1% margin or even less.

Ross Perot was a strong third party, at least before he quit. Had he not quit then rejoined the presidential race, he would've made a significant impact on the race, possibly even winning. Jill Stein and Gary Johnson were not "strong" candidates, they just so happened cause ripples in an already tight race. Kanye West could potential cause similar disruptions this election if it's close enough.

moonbus
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@averagejoe1 said
A great array of thoughtful letters. My take on them is that all opinions are really trained on him personally, and I note there is not one comment about the 100 accomplishments that I often refer to. I think that he is hardly 'unfit' to have been able to get all that done. I find this puzzling. Is there not one positive statement abut the Trump presidency. In previo ...[text shortened]... shbuckling to get things done like he has. Biden, he just ain't got it. Strength vs. milque toast.
Trump's so-called accomplishments are completely overshadowed by his alienating allies, insulting federal judges, a long list of close associates who are white collar criminals (Bannon is only the latest, expect more), repeated lies and foolish statements on camera ("inject bleach" ), and attitude (I have total authority, total exoneration, and no responsibility).

Trump dug himself deeper into the swamp he claimed he would drain, handing out posts to his billionaire buddies, such as the USPS to a man with financial interests in companies in direct competition with the USPS -- a clear case of conflict of interest -- and then himself casting aspersions on the validity of mail-in balloting while his party refuses to make funds available to the USPS to deliver the ballots, thereby making a rigged election into a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Rep. Senators caved in when they had the chance to put a stop to Trump's clear violations of protocol. Some Rep. Senators themselves said that what he did was wrong, just not wrong enough to be removed from power and that the electorate would/should decide whether his abuse of power was sufficient cause to remove him from power. That is what this election will decide: it will be the impeachment trial the Republicans aborted.

no1marauder
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@vivify said
That doesn't make them "strong" third party candidates. They only factored because the 2016 race was incredibly close; several states were decided by a 1% margin or even less.

Ross Perot was a strong third party, at least before he quit. Had he not quit then rejoined the presidential race, he would've made a significant impact on the race, possibly even winning. ...[text shortened]... ight race. Kanye West could potential cause similar disruptions this election if it's close enough.
I don't agree with your assessment in any way. 7 million votes going to third parties was an unusually strong performance unlikely to be duplicated.

Kanye West won't get anywhere near the millions of votes Stein and Johnson got.

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@no1marauder said
I don't agree with your assessment in any way. 7 million votes going to third parties was an unusually strong performance unlikely to be duplicated.

Kanye West won't get anywhere near the millions of votes Stein and Johnson got.
Yes, if you combine their votes, they formed an "unusually strong" third party influence. Individually, they weren't "strong" candidates.

"Kanye West won't get anywhere near the millions of votes Stein and Johnson got"

An obvious statement. Kanye's only on the ballot of like 5 states. In those states he's in, he could make a difference, given that Hillary lost a few states by less than 1 percent.

moonbus
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@AverageJoe1

Here's what I mean when I say the election isn't about policies and issues, it's about Trump:

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-53914829

The Republican Party no longer has a platform. They're just giving Trump a blank cheque to push through his own agenda, whatever it turns out to be. Trump does not lead a party anymore, he is the Pied Piper of a personality cult.

no1marauder
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@vivify said
Yes, if you combine their votes, they formed an "unusually strong" third party influence. Individually, they weren't "strong" candidates.

"Kanye West won't get anywhere near the millions of votes Stein and Johnson got"

An obvious statement. Kanye's only on the ballot of like 5 states. In those states he's in, he could make a difference, given that Hillary lost a few states by less than 1 percent.
I'll make a straight up prediction; third party candidates won't get more than 2.5% of the popular vote and Kanye West's vote total will be miniscule enough to not matter anywhere.

AverageJoe1
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@moonbus said
@AverageJoe1

Here's what I mean when I say the election isn't about policies and issues, it's about Trump:

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-53914829

The Republican Party no longer has a platform. They're just giving Trump a blank cheque to push through his own agenda, whatever it turns out to be. Trump does not lead a party anymore, he is the Pied Piper of a personality cult.
No platform? Make America Great? And he gives specifics, which Biden does not, except that he will raise taxes and stop fracking, costing hundreds of thousands of jobs, and forcing us to go elsewhere, maybe Russia, for energy. I guess that if you all ignore his 100 accomplishments, then you have nothing else to debate about but his personality. Why do you ignore his accomplishments? How about the simple fact that he couldn't WAIT to refer to radical Islam as what they are, on his first day, because weenie Obama was scared to. Trump, a strong man, felt not one scintilla of compunction, because he knew he had what it takes to wipe them out. Good President. How will Bernie and AOC and Tlaib and the socialists handle such matters? Oh, wait, there may actually be a radical hidden amongst the squad.

No matter. You can still vote for the Biden/Bernie administration because he is a nice guy. Uh, so was Jimmy Carter. Any comments on whether people BELOW the $400K crowd will have taxes increased? Biden says his admin will not do it. Hmmmmmm

vivify
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@averagejoe1 said
No platform? Make America Great?
That's not a platform that's a bumper sticker. A platform would be something specific like medicare for all.

And he gives specifics

Like?

vivify
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@no1marauder said
I'll make a straight up prediction; third party candidates won't get more than 2.5% of the popular vote and Kanye West's vote total will be miniscule enough to not matter anywhere.
"An obvious statement. Kanye's only on the ballot of like 5 states."---Vivify

I will concede that 3rd party influence will not decide this election. And while I still maintain that there were no strong 3rd party candidates last election, their combined presence was enough to affect the outcome. So you're correct that 3rd party influence will not be a factor in this year's election.

AverageJoe1
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@moonbus said
@AverageJoe1

Here's what I mean when I say the election isn't about policies and issues, it's about Trump:

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-53914829

The Republican Party no longer has a platform. They're just giving Trump a blank cheque to push through his own agenda, whatever it turns out to be. Trump does not lead a party anymore, he is the Pied Piper of a personality cult.
This may be helpful. Trump is a bully or whatever, and it is likely it was this trait which cowered other countries in scenarios like the non-payers at NATO. He raised $400B. (Except Germany, they will not pay up ). So, i am saying that he creates a chauvinism in the United States positions, which tends to give other countries an inferiority complex. Then he wins, and gets what he (as representative of USA) wants.

Can you folks not see that he is the world’s greatest negotiator. Gotta be tough in these times, dont think Biden/Bernie have the hutzpah

no1marauder
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@vivify said
"An obvious statement. Kanye's only on the ballot of like 5 states."---Vivify

I will concede that 3rd party influence will not decide this election. And while I still maintain that there were no strong 3rd party candidates last election, their combined presence was enough to affect the outcome. So you're correct that 3rd party influence will not be a factor in this year's election.
So back to my point; Trump has to get more than what he got in the last election - 46.1% - to win this time. In political speak, he has to "expand his base". But where is the evidence that he has done so? More importantly, where is the evidence that he even understands that he has to? He seems to think he can win by using the same playbook as 2016 (the RNC didn't even change the Republican platform from one election to the next - something that hadn't happened since the Party was formed in 1856) but he can't and won't.

no1marauder
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@averagejoe1 said
This may be helpful. Trump is a bully or whatever, and it is likely it was this trait which cowered other countries in scenarios like the non-payers at NATO. He raised $400B. (Except Germany, they will not pay up ). So, i am saying that he creates a chauvinism in the United States positions, which tends to give other countries an inferiority complex. Then he wins, and ge ...[text shortened]... orld’s greatest negotiator. Gotta be tough in these times, dont think Biden/Bernie have the hutzpah
More baloney:

" The most recent report from NATO shows that their annual spending as a share of G.D.P. has steadily increased since 2015, when it was 1.4 percent, to 1.47 percent in 2018.

The total dollars spent by European countries and Canada also have risen every year over that time period, from $254 billion in 2015, to $256 billion in 2016, to $273 billion in 2017 to $307 billion in 2018.

So Mr. Trump is also correct that these NATO members are expected to spend about $34 billion more this year than in 2017. But that is part of a yearslong trend of increases."

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/17/us/politics/fact-check-trump-nato-spending-increase.html

AverageJoe1
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@no1marauder said
More baloney:

" The most recent report from NATO shows that their annual spending as a share of G.D.P. has steadily increased since 2015, when it was 1.4 percent, to 1.47 percent in 2018.

The total dollars spent by European countries and Canada also have risen every year over that time period, from $254 billion in 2015, to $256 billion in 2016, to $273 billion in 20 ...[text shortened]... ses."

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/17/us/politics/fact-check-trump-nato-spending-increase.html
Whatever, all I know is that after he had it out with them, they paid up. You must be a 'numbers' guy. They owed they paid because of Trump. Feel free to put it in numbers.

no1marauder
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@averagejoe1 said
Whatever, all I know is that after he had it out with them, they paid up. You must be a 'numbers' guy. They owed they paid because of Trump. Feel free to put it in numbers.
I already did. You want to believe a Trump fairy tale rather than the truth.

Personally, even if it was Trump who squeezed the Euro countries to waste more money on their militaries, I don't consider that an accomplishment. It didn't save us any money either; this year's military budget was the largest every, a whopping $740 billion being authorized. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/us-senate-passes-740-billion-defense-bill-bucking-trump-on-confederate-names.html

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