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About 2 months out: Who will win, and why

About 2 months out: Who will win, and why

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Suzianne
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@vivify said
Trump haters need to remember that if he loses (still a big "if" ) Trump can still run again. A loss wouldn't mean the end of Trump, and not just because he'll fight the results of he loses
However, as far as I know, felons can't run, either.

no1marauder
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@vivify said
Yes, he does. That doesn't change the fact that whether he admits it or not, he's always needed more intelligent people behind him because he's objectively clueless.

Without people like McConnell, Rupert Murdoch, etc., he'd drown. It's already been well established that Trump is incapable of learning new information and doesn't have the attention span to learn even if he could.
McConnell has exactly zero influence over Trump.

Suzianne
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@averagejoe1 said
A great array of thoughtful letters. My take on them is that all opinions are really trained on him personally, and I note there is not one comment about the 100 accomplishments that I often refer to. I think that he is hardly 'unfit' to have been able to get all that done. I find this puzzling. Is there not one positive statement abut the Trump presidency. In previo ...[text shortened]... shbuckling to get things done like he has. Biden, he just ain't got it. Strength vs. milque toast.
Another victim of the Republican fairy tales.

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@no1marauder said
Having already explained to you how the dynamics of this race are different than 2016 several times, I'm not going to waste further time on it.

If you think Trump can win getting the same amount of votes he did in 2016, you're wrong. If you think he and the toadies who "run" his campaign have any idea how to expand his base, you're wrong.
I said earlier in the thread that I think Trump will lose, albeit by the most infinitesimal of margins. I said on the first page of this thread that factors like the pandemic have weighed heavily against Trump. And I already agreed that you're correct in saying 3rd party candidates won't factor in this race.

But bringing up that white America voted for McCain and Romney is simply a moot point when they also voted for Trump.

vivify
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@no1marauder said
McConnell has exactly zero influence over Trump.
I didn't say he has influence over Trump; my point is that his presence on the Senate has been a life raft for Trump, not least of all during the Impeachment. It's McConnell's savvy that saved Trump, not Trump's own intelligence (which only gets him in trouble).

Suzianne
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@averagejoe1 said
No platform? Make America Great? And he gives specifics, which Biden does not, except that he will raise taxes and stop fracking, costing hundreds of thousands of jobs, and forcing us to go elsewhere, maybe Russia, for energy. I guess that if you all ignore his 100 accomplishments, then you have nothing else to debate about but his personality. Why do you ignore his acc ...[text shortened]... ople BELOW the $400K crowd will have taxes increased? Biden says his admin will not do it. Hmmmmmm
Most of his "accomplishments" weren't accomplishments. Most were horrible for the country, no matter how much Trump personally profited from them.

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@averagejoe1 said
This may be helpful. Trump is a bully or whatever, and it is likely it was this trait which cowered other countries in scenarios like the non-payers at NATO. He raised $400B. (Except Germany, they will not pay up ). So, i am saying that he creates a chauvinism in the United States positions, which tends to give other countries an inferiority complex. Then he wins, and ge ...[text shortened]... orld’s greatest negotiator. Gotta be tough in these times, dont think Biden/Bernie have the hutzpah
Being a bully is not negotiation.

no1marauder
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@vivify said
I said earlier in the thread that I think Trump will lose, albeit by the most infinitesimal of margins. I said on the first page of this thread that factors like the pandemic have weighed heavily against Trump. And I already agreed that you're correct in saying 3rd party candidates won't factor in this race.

But bringing up that white America voted for McCain and Romney is simply a moot point when they also voted for Trump.
It isn't a moot point when your point was that all that Trump needed to win was to have Fox News convince White America to vote for him. That just isn't sufficient anymore.

shavixmir
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My two cents worth:

Qanon, mass demonstrations, pandemics, forest fires, paranoid fears, the unacceptance of realities (beliefs in Gods, opposing vaccinations, denying climate change), inherent racism, the gun lobby, pathetic international decisions... trump is a consequence, rather than a cause.

No matter who wins the election, the polarisation is not going to end.
Just look at this forum and this thread. There is no middle ground to be found.

The lack of ability to take a step back or to add some water to the wine is a division that neither poltical party can repair.

So, ultimately, trump and his supporters win, even if they don’t win the election.
They just don’t comprehend what they’ve won though.
China and Russia do.

no1marauder
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@vivify said
I didn't say he has influence over Trump; my point is that his presence on the Senate has been a life raft for Trump, not least of all during the Impeachment. It's McConnell's savvy that saved Trump, not Trump's own intelligence (which only gets him in trouble).
Nonsense. McConnell didn't and couldn't have done anything that would have changed the inevitable outcome in the Senate.

Of course, Trump isn't intelligent and I never said he was. But McConnell and the Republican House couldn't deliver a single one of his promises except the inevitable Republican Tax Cut skewed to the rich.

no1marauder
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@shavixmir said
My two cents worth:

Qanon, mass demonstrations, pandemics, forest fires, paranoid fears, the unacceptance of realities (beliefs in Gods, opposing vaccinations, denying climate change), inherent racism, the gun lobby, pathetic international decisions... trump is a consequence, rather than a cause.

No matter who wins the election, the polarisation is not going to end. ...[text shortened]... don’t win the election.
They just don’t comprehend what they’ve won though.
China and Russia do.
In the not too long run, this Republican party is doomed by demographics. A party reliant on white, poorly educated, religious rural voters isn't going to fare very well in a nation that is becoming more racially diverse, better educated, less religious and more urban.

shavixmir
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@no1marauder said
In the not too long run, this Republican party is doomed by demographics. A party reliant on white, poorly educated, religious rural voters isn't going to fare very well in a nation that is becoming more racially diverse, better educated, less religious and more urban.
Correct.
And do you think that’s going to mellow the attitude of republican voters? Or do you think it’s going to drive their desires ever harsher?

Do you think the democrats are able to sooth the transition? Or do you think it’s only going to corner that demographic ever more?

Hence my post.

moonbus
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@averagejoe1 said
No platform? Make America Great? And he gives specifics, which Biden does not, except that he will raise taxes and stop fracking, costing hundreds of thousands of jobs, and forcing us to go elsewhere, maybe Russia, for energy. I guess that if you all ignore his 100 accomplishments, then you have nothing else to debate about but his personality. Why do you ignore his acc ...[text shortened]... ople BELOW the $400K crowd will have taxes increased? Biden says his admin will not do it. Hmmmmmm
It surprises me that you do not sense the slightest danger here. Trump is a “swashbuckler” a “strong man” you say. It is all too obvious that both the Senate and Barr are Trump’s puppies. Just take out the space between “strong” and “man” and that is what Trump actually aspires to be. A strongman head of state, who rejects any oversight, with a rubber-stamp parliament and a justice system which cannot or will not reign him in is the high road to Putin, Kim Jong Un, Xi Jinping, Assad, Saddam Hussein, General Pinochet, General Norriega, General Marcos, General Franco, Robt. Mugabe, Idi Amin, Sani Abacha. Read The Federalist Papers; Trump is exactly what the founding fathers intended to prevent. That’s why there are three branches of government in the USA with separation of powers and checks and balances. Trump has systematically undermined both oversight and the separation powers.

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@no1marauder said
Trump thinks he's the most intelligent person there is and doesn't listen to advice from anybody except perhaps his immediate family. I would have thought that would be obvious by now.
It is obvious and so what? Bobby Fischer was a totally neurotic egomaniac too.

As long as he gets the job done. That's all that counts in my mind.

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@vivify said
I said earlier in the thread that I think Trump will lose, albeit by the most infinitesimal of margins. I said on the first page of this thread that factors like the pandemic have weighed heavily against Trump. And I already agreed that you're correct in saying 3rd party candidates won't factor in this race.

But bringing up that white America voted for McCain and Romney is simply a moot point when they also voted for Trump.
Tell me, Viv, did any WHITE people vote for Obama??

You people are sooooooooooooo strung out on black piggy toes and white piggy toes. And you wonder why I call y'all racist.

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