28 Jun 11
Originally posted by sh76WAR ratings say that a decent hitting OFer is more important to a team's success than Mariano Rivera was to the Yankee championship teams.
Pujols typically averages about 9 "wins above replacement"
http://www.baseballprojection.com/war/p/pujoa001.htm
The baseball season is about 30 weeks long. If he's out 4-6 weeks, that's between 13.3% and 20% of the season. This means that the Cards are missing about 2 wins above replacement. This of, course, assumes that their backup will be an average re ...[text shortened]... rst place now and that Milwaukee is probably not the most serious contender in the world.
Needless to say, I take them with a large grain of salt.
29 Jun 11
Originally posted by no1marauderOf course that OF will participate in 3-4 times as many games as the closer will.
WAR ratings say that a decent hitting OFer is more important to a team's success than Mariano Rivera was to the Yankee championship teams.
Needless to say, I take them with a large grain of salt.
The OF will have more impact overall.
That is also why it has been so difficult for closers to get into the HOF.
But, I'm sure you knew, and disagreed, with those facts.
29 Jun 11
Originally posted by no1marauderAll that means is that WAR does not compensate adequately for the fact that the pitcher sees so much less action than the every day player but perhaps will perform in more crucial spots. I don't think WAR would underestimate Pujols' contributions to the Cards. The contribution of any one player in baseball is often overrated (see the number of people arguing foolishly that Jeter was as good a player as ARod or Ripken because he won 5 titles) and WAR does that nicely. In basketball, a championship calilber team might be a barely better than .500 team if a superstar goes down. In football, a Peyton Manning might mean an extra 4 or 5 wins in a 16 game season. In baseball, that does not happen.
WAR ratings say that a decent hitting OFer is more important to a team's success than Mariano Rivera was to the Yankee championship teams.
Needless to say, I take them with a large grain of salt.
29 Jun 11
2 edits
Originally posted by shortcircuitThe OF probably doesn't have the same over-all impact as the great closer because the closer performs only in the spots that mean the difference between winning and losing, magnifying his contribution. A hitter is equally likely to come to the plate down or up 10-1 as in a 4-4 tie in the 8th inning. Mariano Rivera, with few exceptions, only performs in close or tie games.
Of course that OF will participate in 3-4 times as many games as the closer will.
The OF will have more impact overall.
That is also why it has been so difficult for closers to get into the HOF.
But, I'm sure you knew, and disagreed, with those facts.
BTW, as for the HOF, I'm sure you'll agree that say, Mariano Rivera, is a lock first ballot HOFer.
29 Jun 11
2 edits
Originally posted by sh76First of all, on my ballot, Rivera would be a first time lock.
The OF probably doesn't have the same over-all impact as the great closer because the closer performs only in the spots that mean the difference between winning and losing, magnifying his contribution. A hitter is equally likely to come to the plate down or up 10-1 as in a 4-4 tie in the 8th inning. Mariano Rivera, with few exceptions, only performs in close or ...[text shortened]... as for the HOF, I'm sure you'll agree that say, Mariano Rivera, is a lock first ballot HOFer.
But, then again, so were Rollie Fingers and Goose Gossage and neither of them made first ballot.
Neither did Dennis Eckersly or Bruce Sutter.
Lee Smith still is not in.
So, I don't bank on Mariano being a first time lock.
On the OF vs Closer argument.... Right now, the Philadelphia Phillies have the best
record in baseball at 50-30. Yesterday, they placed their THIRD closer (this year) on the DL.
Brad Lidge, Jose Contreras and now Ryan Madsen....all are on the DL.
Having a closer is a luxury, but not a necessity.
In years of old, starting pitchers used to throw complete games.
Nolan Ryan is trying to stretch his pitchers out in Arlington.
A couple other teams are beginning to do the same.
The St. Louis Cardinals will miss Albert Pujols MUCH more than they would miss their closer.
30 Jun 11
Originally posted by shortcircuitRegarding Rivera, sorry but in baseball history closers, there's Mariano and there's everyone else. Not only is Rivera going to finish with the most saves of all time and the best regular season numbers of any pitcher in baseball history on a percentage basis, but in the post season he has a career ridiculous 0.71 ERA and an equally ridiculous 0.76 WHIP. If Mariano isn't a first ballot HOFer, I'll eat my computer.
First of all, on my ballot, Rivera would be a first time lock.
But, then again, so were Rollie Fingers and Goose Gossage and neither of them made first ballot.
Neither did Dennis Eckersly or Bruce Sutter.
Lee Smith still is not in.
So, I don't bank on Mariano being a first time lock.
On the OF vs Closer argument.... Right now, the Philadelphia ...[text shortened]... St. Louis Cardinals will miss Albert Pujols [b]MUCH more than they would miss their closer.[/b]
Second, the Phillies are 50-30 because their starting pitching is unbelievable. Obviously, no one position is critical. You can win a title with a bad catcher or shortstop. Baseball is an individual sport and no one player is going to stop you from winning if everyone else compensates.
How much they'd miss Pujoals as opposed to their closer depends on who their closer is and who their backup closer would be. If their closer were Mariano River and their backup closer would be, say, Kyle Farnsworth, we'll see how quickly they rue the day they lost their closer.
The other thing is that in big games, closers become even more vital since the games tend to be closer.
30 Jun 11
3 edits
Here's all you need to know about Mariano.
There's a stat called "adjusted ERA+"
To quote Wikipedia:
It adjusts a pitcher's earned run average (ERA) according to the pitcher's ballpark (in case the ballpark favors batters or pitchers) and the ERA of the pitcher's league. Average ERA+ is set to be 100; a score above 100 indicates that the pitcher performed better than average, below 100 indicates worse than average.
In other words, with all factors including park adjusted for, a 150 means your ERA was 50% better than league average, etc.
Numbers 2-20 all time are a pretty good mix of great historical starters and relief pitchers. Granted that relievers have an advantage as they do in ERA, but as you can see, relievers by no means dominate the list.
2 Pedro Martínez 154
3 Jim Devlin 151
4 Lefty Grove 148
5 Walter Johnson 147
Dan Quisenberry
Hoyt Wilhelm
8 Ed Walsh 146
Smoky Joe Wood
10 Roger Clemens 143
11 Addie Joss 142
Johan Santana
Brandon Webb
14 Trevor Hoffman 141
15 Kid Nichols 140
16 Mordecai Brown 139
17 John Franco 138
Cy Young
19 Roy Halladay 137
20 Pete Alexander 136
As you might have guessed, #1 is Mariano Rivera.
His adjusted ERA+?
ready?
you sure?
okay... you asked for it...
205
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/earned_run_avg_plus_career.shtml
Any questions?
30 Jun 11
Originally posted by sh76FYI,
Here's all you need to know about Mariano.
There's a stat called "adjusted ERA+"
To quote Wikipedia:
[quote] It adjusts a pitcher's earned run average (ERA) according to the pitcher's ballpark (in case the ballpark favors batters or pitchers) and the ERA of the pitcher's league. Average ERA+ is set to be 100; a score above 100 indicates that the pitche ...[text shortened]... w.baseball-reference.com/leaders/earned_run_avg_plus_career.shtml
Any questions?
Dan Quisenberry isn't in the HOF
Neither is Jim Devlin.
Neither is Smokey Joe Wood
Brandon Webb won't be either.
Johan Santana probably won't be either.
John Franco probably won't get in either
Clemens should be in (but probably won't for non baseball reasons)
Trevor Hoffman should get in some time in the future.
Pedro Martinez should also get in someday.
Roy Halladay should get in someday.
So, 30% of your top 20 aren't in or probably won't get in.
This is far from an absolute.
I am not arguing that Rivera doesn't deserve to go in on the first ballot.
The fact that he is a Yankee will also help the cause.
But, Jeff Bagwell should have gone in first ballot and didn't.
Roberto Alomar should have gone first ballot and did not.
There are many more examples.
Just don't bet the ranch on it.
That is all I am saying.
30 Jun 11
Originally posted by shortcircuitThose on the list who don't get in for baseball reasons will not get in because of lack of longevity. All the players on that list played easily on a HOF level while they accumulated those numbers. They just didn't have the longevity.
FYI,
Dan Quisenberry isn't in the HOF
Neither is Jim Devlin.
Neither is Smokey Joe Wood
Brandon Webb won't be either.
Johan Santana probably won't be either.
John Franco probably won't get in either
Clemens should be in (but probably won't for non baseball reasons)
Trevor Hoffman should get in some time in the future.
Pedro Martinez should ...[text shortened]... e are many more examples.
Just don't bet the ranch on it.
That is all I am saying.
Obviously, longevity isn't an issue with Mo, who has dominated baseball since 1996.
30 Jun 11
Originally posted by shortcircuitI think you can certainly bet the ranch that Rivera will be a first ballot Hall of Famer. Rivera is the most dominant player at his position and his an iconic player. Bagwell (a four time all star with performance enhancing rumors) just isn't an overwhelming candidate (his 41.7% HOF vote seems appropriate). His career is not that different than his peers like Carlos Delgado, Frank Thomas, Fred McGriff and Andres Galarraga. All of those guys would come up short.
FYI,
Dan Quisenberry isn't in the HOF
Neither is Jim Devlin.
Neither is Smokey Joe Wood
Brandon Webb won't be either.
Johan Santana probably won't be either.
John Franco probably won't get in either
Clemens should be in (but probably won't for non baseball reasons)
Trevor Hoffman should get in some time in the future.
Pedro Martinez should ...[text shortened]... e are many more examples.
Just don't bet the ranch on it.
That is all I am saying.
01 Jul 11
1 edit
Originally posted by quackquackBagwell makes it this year. Bank on it!!
I think you can certainly bet the ranch that Rivera will be a first ballot Hall of Famer. Rivera is the most dominant player at his position and his an iconic player. Bagwell (a four time all star with performance enhancing rumors) just isn't an overwhelming candidate (his 41.7% HOF vote seems appropriate). His career is not that different than his pee ...[text shortened]... lgado, Frank Thomas, Fred McGriff and Andres Galarraga. All of those guys would come up short.
Your assessment fails to cover his gold gloves that none of those you mentioned had.
It failed to mention he won rookie of the year honors while non of the others did.
As I stated before, I would vote Rivera in first ballot, but don't bet the farm that he gets it. Gossage dominated his era.
Eckersley dominated his era as well. Sutter dominated until he got hurt.
Certainly Fingers was dominant in his era. NONE of them got in first ballot!!!
01 Jul 11
Originally posted by whodeyI've always liked the Reds. A fairly small market team that over preforms.
We are the champions, my friends!!
How bout them Reds!! They won their opener in the bottom of the 9nth with 2 outs. Love it!!
So who will lose to the Reds in the World Series this year?
Speculations?
01 Jul 11
Originally posted by shortcircuitI understand the history of closers not being electedm but Rivera dominated for far longer than any of the other closers plus his post season numbers are insanely great. As long as he doesn't test positive for performanace enhancers he's a definite 1st balloter.
Bagwell makes it this year. Bank on it!!
Your assessment fails to cover his gold gloves that none of those you mentioned had.
It failed to mention he won rookie of the year honors while non of the others did.
As I stated before, I would vote Rivera in first ballot, but don't bet the farm that he gets it. Gossage dominated his era.
Eckersley domi ...[text shortened]... l he got hurt.
Certainly Fingers was dominant in his era. NONE of them got in first ballot!!!
As far as Bagwell, he shouldn't even be mentioned in the same thread as Rivera.
Bagwell won the gold glove once -- in a strike shortened season. A guy like Galarraga has more Gold Gloves and more All Star games and rightfully so won't make the Hall of fame either. But what hurts him most (other than the fact that he isn't a truly immortal player) is that google has 70,400 results for "Jeff Bagwell steriods"