30 Aug 12
Originally posted by shortcircuitSo your into history are you?
So you are on the bandwagon today huh?
You can't seem to decide which side of the fence you are on.
Why don't you straddle a while?
Here is a brief history of what can happen...
1964 Phillie Phold, from a 6 1/2-game lead on the Cincinnati Reds with 12 games remaining in the season, Philadelphia collapsed in a 10-game losing streak (the first sev ...[text shortened]... s the largest September lead ever blown by a team that missed the playoffs in baseball.
Well the Reds have not won 80 games like this before the month of August was over since 1976 when the swept the Yankees in the World Series.
Just say'in. 😀
30 Aug 12
Originally posted by whodeyUmmmm, that 76 team had three HOF players, another that should be in the HOF and a
So your into history are you?
Well the Reds have not won 80 games like this before the month of August was over since 1976 when the swept the Yankees in the World Series.
Just say'in. 😀
manager who is in the HOF.
This team MIGHT get one.
The comfort zone was expanded tonight, making it tougher to catch them.
We'll still watch for fun though.
30 Aug 12
Originally posted by shortcircuitThere could very well be 3 hall of fame players on this team. Votto, Chapman, and I'm sure one more would not be a stretch. Perhaps Cueto, Phillips? Who knows.
Ummmm, that 76 team had three HOF players, another that should be in the HOF and a
manager who is in the HOF.
This team MIGHT get one.
The comfort zone was expanded tonight, making it tougher to catch them.
We'll still watch for fun though.
30 Aug 12
Originally posted by whodeyLMAO.......
There could very well be 3 hall of fame players on this team. Votto, Chapman, and I'm sure one more would not be a stretch. Perhaps Cueto, Phillips? Who knows.
Votto is your best shot, and the one I was referring to.
Phillips is the second best candidate, followed by Chapman.
Longevity is what they will need.
But, the guys on the 76 team were foregone locks except for Perez at the time.
Sparky was no lock either, but he was a manager.
Bench, Morgan and Rose (who should be in) looked to be cinch picks.
Not even close to the same.
30 Aug 12
1 edit
Originally posted by shortcircuitIt's interesting to look at the two teams' comparative stats. The 1976 Reds were by far the best offensive team in the league scoring 1.31 runs over league average and leading by a fairly large margin in every major offensive category. However their pitching was so-so; right around league average in ERA, walks, Ks, WHIP, etc.
LMAO.......
Votto is your best shot, and the one I was referring to.
Phillips is the second best candidate, followed by Chapman.
Longevity is what they will need.
But, the guys on the 76 team were foregone locks except for Perez at the time.
Sparky was no lock either, but he was a manager.
Bench, Morgan and Rose (who should be in) looked to be cinch picks.
Not even close to the same.
The 2012 Reds, by contrast, are a little bit above league average in runs scored and most offensive categories except HRs where they are 2nd and thus SLG where they are in the top 5. Pitching wise, they are over a half run better than league average in ERA and much better than league average in WHIP. Statwise they have the second best staff in the league (only the Nats are better).
The 1976 team won 102 games. The 2012 team is on pace to win 98. I'd say the two teams get it done in different ways, but are approximately equally dominant. Of course, the players on the 1976 team had a prior record of success (they were defending World Champions) that this team can't match, but saying thee two teams aren't "not even close" is statistically unjustified.
30 Aug 12
Originally posted by no1marauderYou are speaking in terms of ONE SEASON.
It's interesting to look at the two teams' comparative stats. The 1976 Reds were by far the best offensive team in the league scoring 1.31 runs over league average and leading by a fairly large margin in every major offensive category. However their pitching was so-so; right around league average in ERA, walks, Ks, WHIP, etc.
The 2012 Reds, ...[text shortened]... 't match, but saying thee two teams aren't "not even close" is statistically unjustified.
I am speaking of the collective bodies of work between the two.
There is no comparison that way.
30 Aug 12
Originally posted by shortcircuitONE SEASON is what they play at a time. Who knows what this team will do in the future? After 1976, the Reds didn't win another post-season game for 14 seasons. I think this team might very well do better than that.
You are speaking in terms of ONE SEASON.
I am speaking of the collective bodies of work between the two.
There is no comparison that way.
30 Aug 12
Originally posted by no1marauderNope, they'll get swept.
ONE SEASON is what they play at a time. Who knows what this team will do in the future? After 1976, the Reds didn't win another post-season game for 14 seasons. I think this team might very well do better than that.
30 Aug 12
Originally posted by shortcircuitCompare Phillips numbers to Morgans. I think you would be surprised.
LMAO.......
Votto is your best shot, and the one I was referring to.
Phillips is the second best candidate, followed by Chapman.
Longevity is what they will need.
But, the guys on the 76 team were foregone locks except for Perez at the time.
Sparky was no lock either, but he was a manager.
Bench, Morgan and Rose (who should be in) looked to be cinch picks.
Not even close to the same.
In fact, compare Votto's numbers to Rose or Morgan or Bench. None of them come close.
As for pitching, nothing comes close to Chapman.
31 Aug 12
1 edit
Lately, all it takes is to make the playoffs, and be the hottest team at the time.
Look at the last couple WS winners.. No one expected the Giants to do what they did, and Lordie, the Cards last year? They were written off in September. There's even an extra wild card team this year.
End of September will tell. 😉
31 Aug 12
Originally posted by no1marauderWhoa! I guess you guys are just not that used to success. Have a big division lead going into September and all of a sudden you're the Big Red Machine?
It's interesting to look at the two teams' comparative stats. The 1976 Reds were by far the best offensive team in the league scoring 1.31 runs over league average and leading by a fairly large margin in every major offensive category. However their pitching was so-so; right around league average in ERA, walks, Ks, WHIP, etc.
The 2012 Reds, ...[text shortened]... 't match, but saying thee two teams aren't "not even close" is statistically unjustified.
The 1976 Reds had a +224 run differential (best in the MLB) and a Pythagorean record of 103-59. This followed the 1975 team that won 108 games, and easily led the league with a +256 run differential.
This year's Reds team is only 6th in the MLB with a +79 run differential and is outperforming their Pythagorean record by 4 games (indicating some element of good luck).
Something tells me that you're trying to pull our chains by comparing this team to the 1976 Reds, but in case you're not, the comparison is completely unmerited.
31 Aug 12
1 edit
Originally posted by sh76Most outperforming of the Pythagorean is based on having a real good bullpen, not "good luck".
Whoa! I guess you guys are just not that used to success. Have a big division lead going into September and all of a sudden you're the Big Red Machine?
The 1976 Reds had a +224 run differential (best in the MLB) and a Pythagorean record of 103-59. This followed the 1975 team that won 108 games, and easily led the league with a +256 run differential.
This this team to the 1976 Reds, but in case you're not, the comparison is completely unmerited.
I don't take run differential as the most meaningful stat; the Cardinals are the best team in the NL by that marker.
EDIT: Here's an amusing article on the Baltimore Orioles who "should" be in last place in the AL East according to the Pythagorean but instead come into tonight in second only 3 games behind the Yankees.http://replacementlevel.wordpress.com/2012/08/08/how-do-the-orioles-keep-winning/
31 Aug 12
Originally posted by no1marauderThere are always going to be deviations of course, but run differential has historically proven to be an excellent indicator of how well a team will do.
Most outperforming of the Pythagorean is based on having a real good bullpen, not "good luck".
I don't take run differential as the most meaningful stat; the Cardinals are the best team in the NL by that marker.
EDIT: Here's an amusing article on the Baltimore Orioles who "should" be in last place in the AL East according to the Pythag ...[text shortened]... Yankees.http://replacementlevel.wordpress.com/2012/08/08/how-do-the-orioles-keep-winning/
I admit to not fully understanding the math, but this paper shows that the Pythagorean method of predicting record works very well:
http://arxiv.org/pdf/math/0509698.pdf
James himself has also written to defend this mechanism and I have not seen his assumptions challenged in any serious way.