03 Sep 21
@eladar saidIf you have "zero" fear of COVID, you're being irrational.
I was more concerned with your baseless attack.
I do not fear as anything. I weigh risks and have zero fear of covid.
You have fear of covid so expose your body to the vaccine.
And your risk of death from COVID is probably more like 2 in a thousands, not under 1. And your risk of severe disease or negative long term effects (not ending in death, but very unpleasant) is probably closer to 15 or 20 in a thousand.
You fear the consequences of the vaccine more than you dear COVID. Fine. But it's fear either way you want to slice it. If "terrified" was a bit of an oversell, so be it.
03 Sep 21
2 edits
@sh76 saidWhy am I being irrational? All covid can do is bring death. Do you really believe death is something you can escape?
If you have "zero" fear of COVID, you're being irrational.
And your risk of death from COVID is probably more like 2 in a thousands, not under 1. And your risk of severe disease or negative long term effects (not ending in death, but very unpleasant) is probably closer to 15 or 20 in a thousand.
You fear the consequences of the vaccine more than you dear COVID. Fine. But it's fear either way you want to slice it. If "terrified" was a bit of an oversell, so be it.
Do you fear death?
03 Sep 21
@eladar saidI recognize that I'm going to die. I prefer it not be a week from Wednesday. If I play my cards right, I think I could swing another 40-45 years. I try to avoid useless risks.
Why am I being irrational? All covid can do is being dead. Do you really believe death is something you can escape?
Do you fear death?
This is a characteristic shared by all people and many animals.
03 Sep 21
@sh76 saidCould you explain why you believe this?
1. Masking, at best, delays the spread or slows the spread. It does not decrease the number of infections in the long term.
03 Sep 21
2 edits
@quackquack saidThe same reason we all get common colds now and then. Highly infectious respiratory viruses spreading in the community, unless wiped out, are going to continue to spread. Unless you stop all contact with other people, sooner or later you're going to be exposed. COVID is more contagious than the common cold and is probably close to the same level of prevalence.
Could you explain why you believe this?
Once you concede the idea that zero COVID is impossible, you are conceding that every person will be exposed to it eventually. Obviously, those vaccinated, previously infected, younger and in better health (or combination of these) will statistically fare better.
Edit: Sorry, sloppy phrasing on my part. There are many forms of the common cold and it's an overstatement to speculate that COVID is as prevalent as all forms of common cold combined - that would be very unlikely. I'll hedge and say it's likely that COVID is on the same level of prevalence of most other other individual cold/flu viruses in circulation.
03 Sep 21
1 edit
@sh76 saidSo you are saying that if I do not get jabbed, I will likely be killed by covid.
I recognize that I'm going to die. I prefer it not be a week from Wednesday. If I play my cards right, I think I could swing another 40-45 years. I try to avoid useless risks.
This is a characteristic shared by all people and many animals.
You are pretty rich, so you have a more enjoyable future ahead of you. Personally I hope I die before I need to wear diapers and have people change them for me.
03 Sep 21
1 edit
@eladar saidSo you are saying that if I do not get jabbed, I will likely be killed by covid.
So you are saying that if I do not get jabbed, I will likely be killed by covid.
You are pretty rich, so you have a more enjoyable future ahead of you. Personally I hope I die before I need to wear diapers and have people change them for me.
=== Ummm. No. Read more carefully.
You are pretty rich, so you have a more enjoyable future ahead of you. Personally I hope I die before I need to wear diapers and have people change them for me.
=== Rich? Hmmm. Well, my income is certainly upper middle class, but you'd be surprised how quickly suburban NY mortgage and property tax, along with 5 private school tuitions, eats away that that. I like to think that the extent to which I'd be considered "rich" is a function of working my butt off, but whatever.
Personally, I want to see as much of my children's (and eventually, grandchildren's) futures as I can, so I'm gonna hang on for dear life, so to speak.
03 Sep 21
1 edit
@sh76 saidSo if the answer is no, then why should I get jabbed?
So you are saying that if I do not get jabbed, I will likely be killed by covid.
=== Ummm. No. Read more carefully.
You are pretty rich, so you have a more enjoyable future ahead of you. Personally I hope I die before I need to wear diapers and have people change them for me.
=== Rich? Hmmm. Well, my income is certainly upper middle class, but you'd be sur ...[text shortened]... (and eventually, grandchildren's) futures as I can, so I'm gonna hang on for dear life, so to speak.
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03 Sep 21
7 edits
@sh76 said
So you are saying that if I do not get jabbed, I will likely be killed by covid.
=== Ummm. No. Read more carefully.
You are pretty rich, so you have a more enjoyable future ahead of you. Personally I hope I die before I need to wear diapers and have people change them for me.
=== Rich? Hmmm. Well, my income is certainly upper middle class, but you'd be sur ...[text shortened]... (and eventually, grandchildren's) futures as I can, so I'm gonna hang on for dear life, so to speak.
03 Sep 21
@joe-shmo saidCFR is irrelevant as far as I'm concerned (except as a mechanism by which to guesstimate IFR).
I think the CFR is significantly overstated. I guess you are in your 40's?
If you look at the data for 20 -59. you'll see that they represent nearly 65% of all reported cases, but account for 53% of the US population. We should expect most missed ( undiagnosed cases ) to come from these age groups ( and younger ). This has the effect of swamping the IFR in these age ...[text shortened]... om/releases/2021/08/210826111744.htm
My bet is the IFR is orders of magnitude lower than the CFR.
IFR seems to be between .4% and .5% (probably closer to .4) in the gen pop. For a healthy person in the 40s, it's somewhat lower than that, but not an order of magnitude lower. Keep in mind that the over-all IFR includes all the healthy children, whose IFR is a rounding error from zero.
You'd have to figure out who the median person is to determine who the ~ .45% person is. I'd guess something like 60 and healthy or 40 and obese, etc.
Of course, I understand it's not a linear scale (it's a logarithmic increase in risk as you advance in age and bad health), so you can't just take the median age (which is under 40).
It's a complex issue, for sure. But I don't think a healthy 40 yo's risk of death is under 1 in 1,000. Just my guesstimate.
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03 Sep 21
2 edits
@sh76
I think the CFR is significantly overstated. I guess you are in your 40's?
If you look at the data for 20 -59. you'll see that they represent nearly 65% of all reported cases, but account for 53% of the US population. We should expect most missed ( undiagnosed cases ) to come from these age groups ( and younger ). This has the effect of swamping the IFR in these age groups.
https://healthequitytracker.org/exploredata?gclid=CjwKCAjwj8eJBhA5EiwAg3z0m36vi5tRntHcQsy53UuJ_nJ-JCcQa5tw3adAnrVJSFbr8fGpsnQ5tRoCmaEQAvD_BwE&demo=age
The CFR might come out to 1/1000 for your age group but the experts highly doubt it accurately represents reality considering that they are finding that a large portion ( nearly one 1/3 ) of the US were infected before Dec 2020.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/08/210826111744.htm
My bet is the IFR is orders of magnitude lower than the CFR for most of the US population.
Sorry, I cut this out of the other reply, because it was the the wrong post I was replying to of yours.
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03 Sep 21
1 edit
@sh76 said"IFR seems to be between .4% and .5% (probably closer to .4) in the gen pop. For a healthy person in the 40s, it's somewhat lower than that, but not an order of magnitude lower. Keep in mind that the over-all IFR includes all the healthy children, whose IFR is a rounding error from zero."
CFR is irrelevant as far as I'm concerned (except as a mechanism by which to guesstimate IFR).
IFR seems to be between .4% and .5% (probably closer to .4) in the gen pop. For a healthy person in the 40s, it's somewhat lower than that, but not an order of magnitude lower. Keep in mind that the over-all IFR includes all the healthy children, whose IFR is a rounding error from z ...[text shortened]... or sure. But I don't think a healthy 40 yo's risk of death is under 1 in 1,000. Just my guesstimate.
can you cite the IFR ( which you claim is just less than 0.4% for 40's ) accounting for the massive numbers of missed cases previously known citing the study published last week?