02 Sep 21
@no1marauder saidI'm not pledging that I'll engage in debate over any red-herring that comes from my small attempt to interject here, but sh76's point was that R0 has dropped below 1.0, which is a significant transition point. If R0 stays below 1, this thing dies out.
Hurrah; Florida's seven day average is all the way down to 19,857 cases which is still 25% higher than the peak in January and about 60% higher than the worst it got last summer. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/
Yup, toss those masks in the trash.
@no1marauder saidOkay, No1. Let's do this.
Hurrah; Florida's seven day average is all the way down to 19,857 cases which is still 25% higher than the peak in January and about 60% higher than the worst it got last summer. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/
Yup, toss those masks in the trash.
Last Spring (2020), we had this same discussion. You wanted to suppress the virus and I said that's impossible and we might as well learn to live with it, because it's here to stay.
Now, do you concede that suppressing the virus in the long term is impossible and that sooner or later, we're all going to be exposed to it (multiple times)?
Assuming yes (forgive me for the assumption, but it seems obvious to me), which of the following points to you disagree with?
1. Masking, at best, delays the spread or slows the spread. It does not decrease the number of infections in the long term.
2. Sooner or later, it's in society's best interest to get back to pre-COVID normal in terms of our social interaction.
3. The vaccines are effective at doing what they're supposed to do: prevent serious illness or death. Not 100% effective, of course, but there's no such thing as 100% safety in anything. They're as effective as we can reasonably expect.
4. There are no short term prospects for MUCH better vaccines or therapeutics that are worth running out the clock towards.
5. Ergo, mask mandates, except where necessary to save the healthcare system, have no public health necessity.
Where do you disagree?
@wildgrass saidEveryone who wants to get vaccinated has had the opportunity to do so. You can't force people to get vaccinated. So, delay "until a larger percentage of their population was vaccinated" is pointless. They're not vaccinated because they don't want to be vaccinated.
So wat was your point? It seems like Florida should have kept the simpler (mask in a store kind of) mitigation efforts in place until a larger percentage of their population was vaccinated. This would have saved lives with minimal effort by citizens.
Ironically, what really does increase vaccination is a surge. The vax percentage in FL has gone up in recent weeks. If not for the surge, you'd have hundreds of thousands of fewer vaccinated people in FL. Thus, these mitigation efforts (to the limited extent they work) would have to go on forever; as the more effective they are, the fewer people get vaccinated.
02 Sep 21
@eladar saidYeah....... Pandemics eventually subside and go away.
How in the world did either the Hong Kong Flu or the Spanish Flu ever end? Viruses do not magically go away.
Oh wait, after people get sick and get better most develop immunity and eventually the virus no longer finds good hosts. It goes away, the typical virus cycle, but too many people are uneducated around here to accept that fact.
Why bother trying to fight it ?
Why bother with mitigation ?
Why bother doing research for a vaccine ?
(besides, we have bathroom cleansers and veterinary drugs as a solution)
Shav is on deck with an alert.
02 Sep 21
@wildgrass
Should we lock down until Eladar gets vaccinated? Or do we say at some point "if you don't want to get vaccinated, that's your problem"?
02 Sep 21
@sh76 said
You can't force people to get vaccinated. So, delay "until a larger percentage of their population was vaccinated" is pointless. They're not vaccinated because they don't want to be vaccinated.
Ironically, what really does increase vaccination is a surge. The vax percentage in FL has gone up in recent weeks. If not for the surge, you'd have hundreds of thousands of fewer vac ...[text shortened]... work) would have to go on forever; as the more effective they are, the fewer people get vaccinated.
Everyone who wants to get vaccinated has had the opportunity to do so.
The vax percentage in FL has gone up in recent weeks.
Everyone who wants it has it but people continue to get it?
02 Sep 21
2 edits
@wildgrass saidYes, exactly!Everyone who wants to get vaccinated has had the opportunity to do so.The vax percentage in FL has gone up in recent weeks.
Everyone who wants it has it but people continue to get it?
Despite political differences, most people behave rationally. They change their wants based on changing realities.
Some people, like me (and probably you as well), think the vaccine is safe and effective and would get it almost regardless of infection rates. (Though even I wouldn't get vaxxed if there were NO community spread.)
Some people, like Eladar, are terrified of the vaccine and think COVID is no big deal; and so won't get it unless forced to.
Then there's a vast swath of people who are hesitant about the vaccine and will not get it unless the threat of COVID is very high. When transmission rates were low in the Spring, they probably figured why risk it? There's very little COVID going around anyway.
When rates, hospitalizations and deaths climbed in the summer, many of those same people thought the calculus changed enough to make it worth "the risk" to get vaccinated.
People who didn't want it then may want it now or in the future.
02 Sep 21
@sh76 saidRight. But people were and are still getting vaccinated in Florida, and they could have waited until a higher percentage were vaccinated before lifting mask guidelines.
Yes, exactly!
Despite political differences, most people behave rationally. They change their wants based on changing realities.
Some people, like me (and probably you as well), think the vaccine is safe and effective and would get it almost regardless of infection rates. (Though even I wouldn't get vaxxed if there were NO community spread.)
Some people, like Eladar, ...[text shortened]... th "the risk" to get vaccinated.
People who didn't want it then may want it now or in the future.
Within a population that has a low vaccine rate, wearing a mask in a store or school is a minor inconvenience (akin to a seatbelt or stop sign that mitigate but don't eliminate traffic fatalities) that should have been in place to minimize the "death peak" as you say.
02 Sep 21
@sh76 saidI am terrified? Or am I just aware that taking the vaccine might have bad side effects and the risk is not worth the reward?
Yes, exactly!
Despite political differences, most people behave rationally. They change their wants based on changing realities.
Some people, like me (and probably you as well), think the vaccine is safe and effective and would get it almost regardless of infection rates. (Though even I wouldn't get vaxxed if there were NO community spread.)
Some people, like Eladar, ...[text shortened]... th "the risk" to get vaccinated.
People who didn't want it then may want it now or in the future.
Seems to me that you bear false witness.
03 Sep 21
1 edit
@sh76 saidFunny, I thought most of our discussion last year was you insisting that the IFR was absurdly lower than the facts showed based on your reliance on a few obviously flawed studies.
Okay, No1. Let's do this.
Last Spring (2020), we had this same discussion. You wanted to suppress the virus and I said that's impossible and we might as well learn to live with it, because it's here to stay.
Now, do you concede that suppressing the virus in the long term is impossible and that sooner or later, we're all going to be exposed to it (multiple times)?
Assumi ...[text shortened]... necessary to save the healthcare system, have no public health necessity.
Where do you disagree?
What actually happened is your COVID minimization theories were put to the test; many, if not most States, relaxed suppression measures in the glorious name of "freedom" with a dash of your "COVID isn't that bad" theology. The results, perhaps to your surprise though not mine, were hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths.
For a while you and others who's predictions had turned out so ridiculously wrong seemed to have fled this Forum: I thought because of embarrassment. But apparently time heals all wounds, esp. in the minds of COVID deniers and minimizers, and you and a few others like Eldy are back in full force insisting on measures that will surely amp up the death count.
Whether or not we'll all be exposed "in the long run", there is no reason to rush exposure to people NOW. Why be in a hurry to make sure some people get sick, others get seriously sick and some large number die of a disease?
Public health mandates which prevent people from getting sick and dying serve a very useful purpose i.e. they prevent people from getting sick and dying. Of course, the usefulness of people not getting sick and dying has to be measured against other costs, but since the best you've come up with to oppose school mask mandates is that children might consider it "torture", I can't say avoiding that outcome is worth a single life to a rational person when viewed objectively.
03 Sep 21
@sh76 saidsh76: A little over 2 weeks of maskless schooling in most of the state doesn't seem to have altered the expected trajectory of the wave.
Don't look now, but the Florida case numbers are starting to come down the other side of the mountain, hospitalizations have begun to decrease and deaths (as the lagging indicator) are cresting, though it will take another couple of weeks to start falling.
According to covidestim, FL Rt rate is now 0.73, signifying a fast decline.
https://covidestim.org/us/FL
The other ...[text shortened]... if maybe children wearing filthy re-usable cloth masks all day isn't the only way a COVID wave ebbs.
Actually almost all of the larger school districts in Florida have defied the Governor's order and imposed mask mandates including Broward and Miami-Dade. https://www.npr.org/sections/back-to-school-live-updates/2021/08/31/1033067718/florida-schools-mask-mandates-desantis
03 Sep 21
@no1marauder saidFled the forum? What are you talking about? I stop posting for a week or two here and there (I do have 2 jobs and 5 kids that consume some of my time, if that's okay with you), but I've never taken extended leaves of more than a few weeks.
Funny, I thought most of our discussion last year was you insisting that the IFR was absurdly lower than the facts showed based on your reliance on a few obviously flawed studies.
What actually happened is your COVID minimization theories were put to the test; many, if not most States, relaxed suppression measures in the glorious name of "freedom" with a dash of your " ...[text shortened]... can't say avoiding that outcome is worth a single life to a rational person when viewed objectively.
Anyway, I see you've chosen to not address my points and take pot shots instead. That is your prerogative (and is unsurprising). As for the Stanford study, all can say is that while it was obviously off, it was much closer than the WHO's and Neil Ferguson's.
Anyway, stay in your home cooped up like a hermit for the rest of your life if you like. I'll go out and live my life and let my family do the same (fully vaxxed, of course), again, if that's okay with you.