@no1marauder saidWhile the number of deaths are certainly undercounts in some ways, they may be overcounts in others (COVID was undoubtedly listed in death certificates for old and frail people who were in for imminent death anyway or from other causes). But let's even say the reported deaths is an over-all undercount...
As of May 29, 2021 there were an estimated 120.2 million total COVID infections. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html
There were 609,930 confirmed COVID deaths. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us
I believe the latter is a somewhat substantial undercount for reasons I have already explained here (reported pneumonia dea ...[text shortened]... recedented high level for one) but even accepting those numbers at face value, the IFR was above .5.
As of now, there have been over 40m reported COVID infections. A 4:1 ratio (historical) of actual infections to counted ones would be quite conservative.
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/06/964527835/why-the-pandemic-is-10-times-worse-than-you-think
Even at 150m total infections (which I think is quite conservative), that implies an IFR just over .4% (at 650k reported deaths).
But most importantly, that's historical. It stands to reason that the IFR was at its highest in March and April of 2020 when we had no vaccine, no monoclonal antibodies, no immunity from previous infection, no idea about prone position, Dexamethasone, Remdesivir, Fluvoxamine, etc. and when the NY hospitals were so overwhelmed that COVID patients were quite literally dying of starvation.
Even if the historical IFR was .5%, the IFR now seems to be .4% at most (probably less).
05 Sep 21
@eladar saidThe "Spanish" flu ended because WW1 ended and we didn't have massive numbers of injured and dirty men packed in close quarters on the battlefield
How in the world did either the Hong Kong Flu or the Spanish Flu ever end? Viruses do not magically go away.
Oh wait, after people get sick and get better most develop immunity and eventually the virus no longer finds good hosts. It goes away, the typical virus cycle, but too many people are uneducated around here to accept that fact.
@athousandyoung saidSo the Spanish flu did not kill anyone in the United States, only soldiers overseas.
The "Spanish" flu ended because WW1 ended and we didn't have massive numbers of injured and dirty men packed in close quarters on the battlefield
@athousandyoung saidThe Spanish flu has not ended. It's still circulating.
The "Spanish" flu ended because WW1 ended and we didn't have massive numbers of injured and dirty men packed in close quarters on the battlefield
Our immune systems are just used to it by now and so it's less deadly (though still deadly in some cases).
@sh76 saidYou mean what covid will be once we ditch the masks and let nature take its course. The more we slow it, the longer it will take.
The Spanish flu has not ended. It's still circulating.
Our immune systems are just used to it by now and so it's less deadly (though still deadly in some cases).
@sh76 saidNo, I'm pretty sure the "Spanish" Flu pandemic of 1918 was caused by the war. Put troops into trenches for four years and you'll probably find they get sick. How else did it spread to Europe from central USA?
The Spanish flu has not ended. It's still circulating.
Our immune systems are just used to it by now and so it's less deadly (though still deadly in some cases).
05 Sep 21
@athousandyoung saidSo you are sure that only troops in Europe got sick?
No, I'm pretty sure the "Spanish" Flu pandemic of 1918 was caused by the war. Put troops into trenches for four years and you'll probably find they get sick.
05 Sep 21
https://www.kumc.edu/wwi/medicine/influenza.html
Military transport ships were the likely vector of influenza which was well-established around the world by August of 1918. As the pandemic grew and matured its virulence apparently increased. Mortality rates on the eastern coast of America climbed in newspaper reports, the epidemic seeming to emanate from military bases there.
05 Sep 21
@athousandyoung saidSo it was international travel that spread the virus, just like today.
Of course not. The disease came from Kansas.
How do you think it got to Europe?
05 Sep 21
@athousandyoung saidObviously it went away and society survived. It ended more quickly than covid will end.
And the inability to implement proper precautions like social distancing and compromised immune systems because of the war.
International travel didn’t spread it from Kansas to the east coast.